Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears: Prediction, odds, picks

The Detroit Lions (9-3) are the favorites — expected to win by at least a field goal, but less than a touchdown (currently -3) — against the Chicago Bears (4-8) in a matchup of two division rivals. 

The Lions scored a 33-28 victory over the New Orleans Saints in their Week 13 matchup, while the Bears also scored a win (12-10) against the Minnesota Vikings in their last contest. 

Who will prevail in this NFC North challenge?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Lions and Bears — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Lions vs. Bears Odds & Betting Lines

Lions vs. Bears Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Detroit (-3) 
• Pick OU: Over (41.5) 
• Prediction: Detroit 28 - Chicago 20

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill 

This is about two things — weather and a much-improved defense by the Bears. 

The last time we saw the Bears was on Monday Night Football, where they intercepted the Vikings four times while holding them to under five yards per play. 

These teams just met three weeks ago and the Bears controlled the Lions for most of the game, before losing in the final minute. 

But perhaps the biggest reason for playing the Under here is the weather. Snow and wind are in the forecast, with possible gusts up to 25 mph, which should hurt the passing games and keep scoring down. 

Considering the forecast, I think this line comes down even more. 

Under 40.5 is a solid play. 

PICK: Under 40.5 points scored by both teams combined

How to Watch Detroit vs. Chicago

• Game Date: Sunday, December 10, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Soldier Field
• Location: Chicago, Illinois
• TV: Watch on FOX

Lions vs. Bears Recent Matchups

• Detroit holds a 3-2 record against Chicago in their last five matchups.
• Chicago has been outscored by 26 points in its last five tilts versus Detroit.

Detroit Betting Info

• Against the spread, Detroit is 8-4-0 this year.
• When playing as at least 3-point favorites this season, the Lions have an ATS record of 5-3.
• Detroit games this year have gone over the total in eight out of 12 opportunities (66.7%).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Lions have won 80% of the time (8-2).
• Detroit has a 4-2 record (winning 66.7% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -170 or shorter.
• The Lions have a 63.0% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Lions Stats

Detroit's Key Players

Offense

• Jared Goff ranks fourth in the NFL with 3,288 passing yards in 12 games this year, averaging 274.0 per game with a 67.7% completion percentage and 20 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) against eight interceptions.
• To go along with his passing stats, Goff has 21 rushing yards (fifth on the Lions), with two rushing touchdowns.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has 84 receptions (sixth in the NFL) for 1,042 yards (sixth in the NFL) and six TDs. Through 11 games, he is averaging 7.6 catches and 94.7 yards per game.
• In nine games, David Montgomery has amassed 704 yards on the ground, averaging 78.2 yards per game and scoring 10 touchdowns.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for 626 yards with five touchdowns (62.6 yards per game through 10 games).
• He has added 42 catches (on 54 targets) for 272 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He's averaging 27.2 receiving yards and 4.2 receptions per game.

Defense

• On defense for the Lions, Alex Anzalone has put up 87 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and three sacks in 2023.
• Aidan Hutchinson has picked off one pass and added 36 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and four passes defended.
• Brian Branch has collected 58 tackles, 7.0 TFL, and two interceptions this year.
• Jerry Jacobs has 2.0 TFL, 53 tackles, and three interceptions on the season.

Chicago Betting Info

• Chicago has covered the spread five times over 12 games with a set total.
• This year, the Bears have an against-the-spread record of 4-3-1 in their eight games as an underdog of 3 points or more.
• Games involving Chicago have hit the over on seven occasions this season.
• This season, the Bears have won three out of the 10 games in which they've been the underdog.
• This season, Chicago has won one of its five games when it is the underdog by at least +142 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win by the Bears based on the moneyline is 41.3%.

Bears Stats

Chicago's Key Players

Offense

• Justin Fields has thrown for 1,587 yards this year, with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He is completing 64.4% of his passes while averaging 198.4 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt.
• Fields has also rushed for one touchdown and 400 yards (first on the Bears).
• D.J. Moore has 1,003 receiving yards (ninth in the NFL) and six touchdowns on 70 receptions, while being targeted 93 times.
• In 12 games played this season, Cole Kmet has 56 catches (4.7 receptions per game on 5.7 targets per game) for 482 yards and five receiving touchdowns.
• D'Onta Foreman averages 54.4 rushing yards per game through seven games (381 total yards), with four rushing touchdowns.
• Foreman has also tacked on nine catches (1.3 per game) for 55 yards (7.9 per game) and one receiving touchdown. He has been on the receiving end of 13 targets.

Defense

• So far in 2023, T.J. Edwards has put up 2.0 sacks to go with 6.0 TFL, 125 tackles, and two interceptions through 12 games.
• Montez Sweat has 39 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and nine sacks.
• Tremaine Edmunds has 4.0 TFL, 77 tackles, and two interceptions.
• Jaquan Brisker's stat sheet includes one interception as well as 63 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and five passes defended in 10 games