Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is in a slump — make no mistake about it

By Matt Mosley
Special to FOX Sports

Entering 2021, the Dallas Cowboys were hoping that an improved defense would complement one of the NFL's most electric offenses. But 13 games into the season, Dan Quinn's defense is carrying an erratic offense that has seen quarterback Dak Prescott fall into a second-half slump.

In fact, "slump" became the key word this week, as Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy and owner Jerry Jones were both asked about Prescott's play. McCarthy scoffed at the very idea of his quarterback being in a slump, but Jones was more open to the conversation.

"I don’t want to say that — slump — but that’s probably fair," Jones said on Dallas radio station 105.3 The Fan. "But it’s such a multifaceted evaluation. 

"I would say that our offense is definitely away from where we were playing five and six games ago, from the standpoint of production. What the opposing defenses have to do with it needs to be considered, but what I do think is the case is that we got to go out and will play with confidence, no matter what they throw at us."

While McCarthy flat-out said, "Dak is not in a slump," the Cowboys' coach knows that his QB's poor play allowed Washington to rally in Dallas' 27-20 victory Sunday, a game in which the defense was primarily responsible for a 24-0 halftime lead.

It had to be alarming to see Prescott throw an awful pick-six that turned a comfortable lead into a one-score game. McCarthy tried to blame Prescott's not seeing a Washington linebacker on poor route spacing, but that excuse has already been used.

The Cowboys can't keep blaming everyone other than their QB. He is in one of the worst slumps of his career, and the numbers simply do not lie.

In his first six games, Prescott completed 73.2% of his passes and had 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, with a 115 passer rating and 8.39 yards per attempt. He was a legitimate MVP candidate as the Cowboys jumped to a 5-1 start.

He strained his calf on the final play of a Week 6 win against the Patriots and hasn't been the same since.

In his past six starts, Prescott has averaged 40 fewer yards per game (261.3), and he has just eight TDs and six INTs, with a passer rating of 82.8 and 6.56 YPA. The Cowboys are 3-3 in that stretch and look a lot less like Super Bowl contenders, despite their 9-4 record.

Jones admits that the Cowboys have discussed what role Prescott's injuries might have played in his performance, but he and McCarthy believe the quarterback is healthy. A team source familiar with Prescott's treatment for his calf strain told FOX Sports that everything is structurally sound, and the media is "overthinking this."

It's worth noting that Prescott isn't a stranger to slumps during his NFL career, as detailed by FOX Sports' research team. 

After a remarkable rookie season in 2016, Prescott ran into trouble in the second half of 2017. In Weeks 10-17, he had a 62.8 completion percentage, six TDs and nine INTs, with a 74.0 passer rating. That was the season in which Zeke Elliott served a six-game suspension, which undermined the offense and served as a distraction.

In 2018, Prescott was slow out of the gate, with five TDs and four INTs to go with an 81.4 passer rating and a 2-3 start. The Cowboys eventually traded for Amari Cooper, which jump-started the offense. After a 3-5 start, Dallas won the NFC East before losing to the Rams in a divisional playoff game. 

In 2019, Prescott put up excellent overall numbers (30 TDs, 11 INTs) but had a four-game stretch in which he threw four interceptions and completed only 61.8% of his passes.

The silver lining for Dallas is that Prescott routinely breaks out of these poor stretches, though this is the first time he's attempting to do so while coming back from a major injury.

Former Cowboys coach and scout Glenn "Stretch" Smith and his mentor, Joe Dickinson, who is Patriots rookie Mac Jones' personal QB coach, have noticed that Prescott is not transitioning from the instep of his right foot to the middle of his left foot properly on certain throws.

"He's not putting his back foot or great toe into the turf," Smith said. "If you get up on your front foot too early and you're not driving off your back foot, the ball sails on you."

On Prescott's first interception Sunday, the ball sailed way over the head of the intended receiver and was an easy pick. 

Dickinson, a former offensive coordinator at Oklahoma, puts a big emphasis on controlling the nose of the football. Quarterbacks have to do that to hit a 15-yard dig route over a linebacker and in front of a safety. Right now, Prescott doesn't appear to have confidence in those throws. 

It's an awkward situation because Prescott is the unquestioned leader of this team, but he has also been responsible for putting the Cowboys in some bad spots. Jones made Prescott one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league in part because he loves his work ethic and leadership qualities. But Prescott doesn't have the accomplishments of Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. He just happens to get paid like those elite QBs.

Maybe Prescott will have a breakout game against a bad Giants team on Sunday (1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App). The Cowboys need that win to have a legitimate shot at a No. 2 seed in the playoffs.

But if that happens, it probably will be because Micah Parsons and the defense continue to take over games. Even with his massive contract, Prescott needs to be a caretaker quarterback until he figures this out. Something isn't quite right with him, and I suspect we'll find out after the season that he was in more pain than anyone realized.

The one thing I know is that it's rare for Jones to acknowledge that one of his star quarterbacks (Troy Aikman and Tony Romo included) is in a bad way. But he came close to that this week.

At least the Cowboys' wide receivers appreciated their one-week reprieve from Jones' criticism. McCarthy wasn't as benevolent.

Matt Mosley has covered the Cowboys for The Dallas Morning News, ESPN, FOX Sports and Texas Monthly Magazine. He also co-hosted afternoon-drive radio in Dallas for 10 years and is now heard on ESPN Central Texas, home of his alma mater, Baylor. He makes regular appearances on "The Herd" on FS1 and Fox Sports Radio.