Colts, Vikings, Eagles, Niners: Is it time to believe in these NFL squads?
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
This NFL season is special because there’s no overwhelming favorite in either conference.
Just today, the top two AFC seeds lost, both at home. Two of the top NFC teams also lost, both on the road. But with so much focus on the teams at the top, there are four other teams finding a groove right now.
With this season feeling different than others before, should we believe in these four teams? Let’s dig in.
Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
The Colts had the most impressive win in Week 11, a thorough, 41-15 domination of the Buffalo Bills. They ran through Buffalo while harassing Josh Allen, forcing four turnovers.
Reason to believe: The physical play in the trenches, starting with running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor became the first player in NFL history to rush for at least 175 yards, score four rushing touchdowns and score a receiving touchdown. He has 1,122 rushing yards to go with 322 receiving yards. This is a reflection of his individual play as well as an offensive line that is mauling opponents.
The Colts entered the game eighth in adjusted line yards, a measure by Football Outsiders that grades the offensive line. On defense, Pro Football Focus has Indy's pass rush ranked ninth and rushing defense ranked fifth. When you can compete each week in the trenches, you can win any game.
Also, Indianapolis' schedule has the Texans, Jaguars and Raiders left. That should get them to nine wins. With a victory in one of the other three games, they are in the playoffs with 10 wins.
Reason to doubt: Quarterback Carson Wentz. The passing offense entered this weekend ranked 20th in the league. Wentz is ranked 22nd by Pro Football Focus, and he’s bound to throw one horrendous interception per game. He’s just not to be trusted. For some reason, people still expect Wentz to return to his 2017 season form, even though that season appears to be the outlier of his career.
Minnesota Vikings (5-5)
The Vikings won a huge divisional game against the Packers to bring their record to .500. At this point of an up-and-down season, they are on track for an NFC wild-card spot.
Reason to believe: The Vikings' efficiency numbers are very good, far better than their record would indicate. They entered Sunday ranked ninth in Football Outsiders' DVOA. They are 12th on offense, which will probably increase after they scored 34 points against the Packers, and eighth on defense, which will likely fall a bit after they allowed 31 points.
This squad has the parts to be a dangerous team in the NFC. The Vikings can be a high-powered offense with Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Their pass rush can attack the opposing quarterback, and their coverage unit is ranked seventh.
Reason to doubt: Kirk Cousins. Do we believe in him? He can be good (ranked first by Pro Football Focus) and then be average-to-bad. The Vikings QB ranks 14th in overall efficiency.
Sunday provided a great example. Cousins played well the entire game. Then he threw what appeared to be an awful interception that would have given the Packers the ball back with plenty of time for them to win with a field goal. The play was questionably overturned, and Cousins led his team to a game-winning field goal. Because of the up-and-down QB play and a defense that will allow some explosive plays, the Vikings are a roller coaster each week.
This browser does not support the Video element.
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings executed the two-minute drill to perfection in a 34-31 victory over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)
The Eagles recorded their fifth win by dominating the Saints in Philly. It was an impressive all-around team performance. The Saints are without quarterback Jameis Winston for the rest of the season, but their defense is ranked sixth. The Eagles rushed for 242 yards, and Jalen Hurts was good enough.
Reason to believe: The schedule. The Eagles' five wins are against teams that won’t make the playoffs: the Falcons, Panthers, Lions, Broncos and Saints (who are good but without a starting QB). The Eagles' six losses are against the Niners, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bucs, Raiders and Chargers.
The Eagles' next five games are against the Giants, Jets, Washington, Giants and Washington. If they can rip through that crew with four wins, they can be a playoff team.
Reason to doubt: They haven’t beaten anyone good. And that’s probably because the Eagles aren’t a talented roster, and they have an average quarterback. Pro Football Focus has Hurts with the 14th-ranked passing grade. His efficiency numbers put him at 18th. The Eagles' defense entered Sunday ranked 19th overall.
That said, the Eagles should be excited about their future, as it’s clear that this staff can coach, and Hurts has improved in his second season.
This browser does not support the Video element.
Jalen Hurts joined FOX following the Eagles' Week 11 victory over the Saints to talk about the victory.
San Francisco (5-5)
The 49ers have appeared to straighten things out after a slow start, winning their previous two games 61-20. They are now third in the NFC West.
Reason to believe: They are talented and have shown the ability (see the Rams game) to get on a roll. When the offense is humming — which is when they run the ball and protect Jimmy Garoppolo with the play calls — they can out-scheme almost anyone.
On defense, the Niners are fast in the front seven and can rush the passer. Their pass-coverage unit ranked 10th entering the weekend. On paper, they should win or be close to winning each week.
This browser does not support the Video element.
Jimmy Garoppolo spoke with Jen Hale about the importance of winning a road game and the mix-and-match offense the 49ers have installed to keep defenses on their toes.
Reason to doubt: Outside of the 2019 season, when the Niners rolled to the Super Bowl, coach Kyle Shanahan is well under .500. The reasons for that include his game management and having just an average QB who sometimes plays like he doesn’t know what is happening.
The Niners' coaching staff has had plenty of changes, with coaches getting upgraded jobs, and I wonder if the brain dump has hurt them. If it hasn’t, Kyle Shanahan’s roster management surely has. The 49ers still have the Vikings, Seahawks, Bengals, Titans and Rams left to play. That's a tough schedule moving forward.
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.