College Football on the Verge of Surpassing the NFL?
College football is climbing towards the peak of Mount Everest, while the NFL is on the verge of collapsing under itself
Unless you live under a rock, you know television ratings are down across the NFL. Whether it’s the three prime time games or a Sunday afternoon game, fewer people are watching the NFL.
Is this because our attention spans have collapsed and we can not watch a three-hour game that finishes in a 6-6 tie? Or has another product come into the market and given us something better to spend our precious time and money on?
College football has grown into a multi-billion dollar industry, and is giving consumers a product worth seeing. Their product is as popular as ever, and with so many teams, the possibilities and combinations of scenarios down the stretch are endless.
That leads to my hypothesis: Is the NCAA on the verge of surpassing the National Football League in terms of popularity and overall viewership?
First, lets examine the television ratings for the NFL and compare them to other primetime events.
Sunday Night Football was only the fifth-most watched show during week six of the season when the Colts faced the Texans. Surpassing them was (of all things) The Big Bang Theory, in ratings and total viewership on a Monday night. Those numbers were even better than Monday Night Football.
The week of October 3-9, the NFL took the top three viewership ratings, with Thursday Night Football bottoming out at a 4.1 rating. The Presidential Debate received nearly an equal amount of viewers on a Sunday night, taking away from the 5.9 rating Sunday Night Football received.
Sep 10, 2016; Bristol, TN, USA; General view as Tennessee Volunteers players warm up before the game against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
So you get the point. The ratings have deflated across the board. Now onto college football’s numbers this season.
The primetime college football game between Tennessee and Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway and attracted six million viewers, and a record 157,000 fans in attendance. Not bad for a game that was ultimately a blowout won by the Vols.
Last weekend’s Penn State upset over Ohio State had 6.1 million television viewers, as did Saturday Night Live that same evening. Not to mention there were 107,280 fans at Beaver Stadium watching Penn State/Ohio State live in action. That won’t account for the people working the game, whether they’re security, press, or janitors.
More from NFL Mocks
Two weeks ago #2 Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin generated 8.32 million viewers and had a ratings/share of 2.5/9 on ABC. Over on NBC, Stanford at Notre Dame had 2.43 million viewers with a ratings/share of 0.5/2.
Combined, the top two college football games had 10.75 million viewers with an astounding 3.0 television rating.
Thursday Night Football had a 3.0 television rating, or 10.5 million viewers, tuned in to watch the Bears play a rivalry game against the Packers. A Bears/Packers rivalry game finished as well as two college football games that aired on nights most people are out enjoying themselves.
The fact that two college football games, one of which featured zero ranked opponents, performed better on a Saturday night than a Thursday night NFL game is astounding. While Thursday Night Football has always been a flop, it’s the NFL. They own a day of the week!
Now, no one will ever top the Super Bowl, which generated over 114 million viewers last year with a rating of 47.5. But meanwhile, the National Championship game between Alabama and Clemson had 26 million, 15% of the ratings share.
That leads to my ultimate question: Will/Has college football surpassed the NFL in terms of entertainment and fandom?
NFL Mocks staff writer Joe Wedra believes that ” if you polled SEC country right now, that answer would be pretty close to yes.”
I believe most people have a deeper connection to college football, especially if they went to a powerhouse like Alabama, USC, Penn State, or Miami. Those people live and die with their college teams because their personal connection is unbreakable. Additionally, regions of the country such as Alabama, Nebraska, or even Idaho don’t have an NFL team in their region. Instead, people watch the Tide, Cornhuskers, or Boise State.
The state of North Dakota was for the most part Bison fans with no NFL loyalties whatsoever. Since Carson Wentz was drafted by the Eagles, his jersey is the number one seller in the state.
Oct 22, 2016; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Football players run onto the field prior to the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
There are also more college games with more stars to latch onto compared to the NFL. You have 128 FBS teams and 50 FCS schools. While millions aren’t tuning into Central Connecticut take on Robert Morris or Liberty versus Stony Brook, they attract alumni and local fans.
College football games also bring more energy and excitement. It may be that places such as Beaver Stadium or Camp Russell have 20,000 inebriated young adults packed together jumping around.
When has a team like the Browns made a major comeback against the Patriots thanks to a blocked field goal? Or the Titans knocked off the Seahawks on the road? There just are not enough good teams in the NFL to generate enough national passion. You could predict the majority of the NFL playoff teams before the preseason. That creates little suspense or excitement for the season.
One of NFL Mocks best staff writers, Eric Robinson, says “I can’t say (college football has) when the NFL game is getting showcased internationally. The NFL ratings are down, but I think part of that is due to the lack of appeal on their national televised games. Jags/Titans on TNF barely moves the needle.”
Another great staff writer for NFL Mocks, Shawn Spencer, agrees that the international presence created by the NFL gives them a greater appeal. “In terms of popularity, I believe NFL will always be king based on appeal not only in the US, but worldwide. The college game however has been much more entertaining over the past few years. Every game can impact the playoff picture whereas in the NFL, a team can slip up once or twice a season in a game they should win and still make the postseason.”
I believe that having only 128 teams battle for four playoff spots also makes things more suspenseful. Everyone wants to see if Clemson can hang onto a top-four spot, or if Washington or Wisconsin can take the next step in their programs history. Everyone knows before the season that the Browns will not be competitive. No one knew West Virginia, Baylor, or Louisville would be in the playoff hunt.
Feb 2, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; General view of the NFL social media command center at Super Bowl City in downtown San Francisco prior to Super Bowl 50 between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Veteran NFL Mocks writer and high school football coach Matthew Holowiak agrees, but says “college has been much more exciting and unpredictable this year. However when it gets closer to playoff time in NFL we may see it switch back.”
I also think the NFL is being counter-intuitive with their policies. Limiting the social media presence of NFL teams on one hand is absurd. If my team is not playing until Monday night and I see on Twitter that A.J. Green is having a 200 yard game, guess what I’m tuning into.
Suppressing the style and personalities of players such as Antonio Brown or Josh Norman also hurts. Who cares what cleats they wear or if they dance in the end zone. Terrell Owens and Ocho Cinco did more than that, and viewership was doing just fine.
Oct 31, 2015; Madison, WI, USA; A penalty flag rests on the field during the game between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin won 48-10. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
The NFL is suffocating its own stars; the sole reason people in Alabama watch Odell Beckham Jr. on Sundays or people in Maine watch Todd Gurley every week is because they are exciting. Revoking their energy and creating an Ayn Rand dystopia will take the air out of what makes the league fun.
On a side note, how come a player gets fined for using the ball as a prop when they spin it, but Gronk can spike the ball whenever he wants?
NFL owners and executives are well aware ratings are down, and they want answers immediately. If the product begins to sour, major changes will be made. This could be the straw that breaks Rodger Goodell’s back. If the owners don’t see the money coming in from advertisers and fans, then they will fire their top employee.
Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports
That is all Goodell is, or at least should be; the owners collective voice and representation in legal matters. The job is for a souped up lawyer, not an authoritarian dictator.
Things may even out across the football landscape, but maybe they won’t. College football is growing by the day with more stars and captivating moments being created every Saturday. The National Football League has an issue they never foresaw, and that is their “minor league system” taking over.
While we won’t see a scenario where Triple-A baseball surpasses Major League Baseball, or the D-League is more popular than the NBA, we may see that happen with football.
The NFL is in the intensive care unit, and needs a shot of adrenaline before they are sent to hospice, only to never return.
George Stockburger is an editor for NFL Mocks and That Ball’s Outta Here, while also hosting two weekly radio shows on Penn State’s CommRadio and being a play by play voice for Penn State hockey. He can be reached on Twitter @DraftStock_1.
This article originally appeared on