College Football, NFL odds: Best bets for Michigan-Nebraska, Dolphins-Bills

Another banana split last week, complete with a Packers push for the cherry on top. Let’s credit Green Bay for rallying back to beat New Orleans and throw tomatoes at the Tennessee Titans for stinking up the joint.

I’ve got three more college football bets and two more NFL plays this week. Remember, this place isn’t the space for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

Baylor Bears at UCF Knights (-12.5, O/U 55.5)

I’m hearing good things about Blake Shapen.

Baylor’s starting quarterback will reportedly be ready to rock for this game and boy, do the Bears need him back under center after he strained his MCL against Texas State in the season opener.

Some people expect Baylor to mail it in after starting 1-3, but I don’t believe that’s the case for one second. Let’s also understand how ridiculously tough the Bears’ schedule has been with losses against Utah and Texas.

Both these defenses leave a lot to be desired, so these offenses should feast on the opposing secondaries in terms of big plays. This is a "circle the wagons" game for Baylor and I expect the Bears to fight ‘til the very end.

Take the points.

PICK: Baylor (+12.5) to lose by fewer than 12.5 points (or win outright)

Penn State Nittany Lions (-26.5, O/U 46) at Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern stinks.

There, I said it.

The Wildcats have junior-varsity talent and the Nittany Lions boast one of the nation’s best defenses. I would honestly be surprised if Northwestern mustered two touchdowns on a sleepy Saturday afternoon in Evanston.

As for Penn State, this has all the makings of a field day for its offense. And after facing Illinois and Iowa the last two weeks, this will be a walk in the park for quarterback Drew Allar and that loaded running back room.

The other thing you always have to consider with James Franklin is he’ll run up the score against his own mother. How many times over the years have we seen Penn State up two or three touchdowns, and he’s still got the backups gunning for jugulars with the game well out of hand?

Too many.

PICK: Penn State (-26.5) to win by more than 26.5 points

Michigan Wolverines (-17, O/U 39) at Nebraska Cornhuskers

I’m cutting this game in half.

I have better things to do than fade Michigan for four quarters because Jim Harbaugh & Co. are very, very good at making second-half adjustments. But this is a weird spot for the Maize and Blue and Nebraska’s front seven can be a tough nut to crack, especially in the early going.   

Let’s revisit the Huskers’ two first-half losses this season. They were down 3-0 at Minnesota and held Colorado scoreless for the first quarter. A timely interception at their own 20 put ‘em down 10-0 with four minutes to go.  

They are in these games early.

Matt Rhule is going to do his best to follow the underdog blueprint. Run the football and create mass confusion on defense. Don’t be surprised when Nebraska turns this into a field position game. The Huskers won’t think twice about punting the ball away on 4th and 2 from the Michigan 40.

Give me Nebraska in the first 30 minutes.

PICK: Nebraska +9.5 1st half

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, O/U 43.5)

Bill Belichick vs. Mike McCarthy.

Hmmm. 

Wise guys whacked all the +7 off the board and understandably so. This is shaping up to be a defensive slugfest between Dallas and New England and the Patriots are getting healthier by the minute in the secondary.

I’m fascinated to see how Belichick decides to cover star receiver CeeDee Lamb and we know Dak Prescott is no stranger to making risky throws. I’ll repeat the ol’ cliche: Belichick takes away your best threat. Just ask Tyreek Hill, who caught only five passes for 40 yards in Foxborough two weeks ago.

The Patriots have also done a much better job moving the ball with Bill O’Brien calling the shots on offense. Who would’ve thought an offense would be more flowy with an actual offensive coordinator instead of Matt Patricia.

I like New England to hang inside the number.

PICK: Patriots (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, O/U 53.5)

There aren’t many people higher on Miami than me.

After all, I’m sitting on a very fancy 20-1 Coach of the Year slip on Mike McDaniel that’s looking reaaaally good right about now. Long way to go, but I'm content. 

That said, it’s Buffalo or pass in this spot.

Miami dropped 70 points last Sunday and nobody will shut up about it. Even my mailman made a comment the other day about how the Dolphins are good enough to win the Super Bowl. 

In all seriousness, this is a great buy-low spot on a Super Bowl-caliber team laying less than a field goal at home. Nothing more, nothing less.

And after Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen turned it over four times in the season opener, Buffalo hasn’t skipped a beat on offense. How’s 450 yards and 38 points against Las Vegas and 386 yards and 37 points against Washington?

Not too shabby.

PICK: Bills (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

2023 Record: (8-9-1, -1.7)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.