Cleveland Browns: Patrick Mahomes II Scouting Report
How does Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes II stack up in a flawed class? Should the Cleveland Browns select him?
Nothing about the path Mahomes has taken to the NFL is orthodox. Mahomes had a dream of becoming a professional baseball player before finding his way to football. The son of former Major League pitcher Pat Mahomes, Mahomes was a player that never did quarterback camps or took the increasingly typical path to being a big time quarterback.
Mahomes also turned down scholarship offers from Notre Dame and Texas A&M to go to Texas Tech to play for head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Those other schools offered him a better chance at program success, but the Red Raiders offered Mahomes the fastest path to the field, which happened late in his freshman season.
Nothing about Mahomes is traditional or orthodox. He's not classically trained but he offers a ton of talent. The questions that teams have to answer about Mahomes include just how much talent Mahomes has and what is the best path, if there is one at all, to get all of it out of him and enable him and their team to succeed with him as their quarterback.
Production in Final Year
Games: 12
Passing Attempts: 591
Passing Completions: 388
Completion Percentage: 65.7
Yards Per Attempt: 8.5
Passing Yards: 5,052
Touchdowns: 41
Interceptions: 10
Rushing Attempts: 131
Rushing Yards: 285
Rushing Average: 2.18
Rushing Touchdowns: 12
Measurements
Height: 6-2
Weight: 225 pounds
Arm Length: 33.25 inches
Hand Size: 9.25 inches
Mahomes meets the thresholds for everything, although it's not ideal that his hands are as small as they are. He has had issues with fumbles during his career and on tape, it seemed to be as a result of how he would hold the ball away from his body, which is correctable. His hand size may suggest that wasn't the only problem.
Athletic Testing
Age: 21 (Date of Birth is September 17, 1995)
40-Yard Dash: 4.80s, 4.84s
3 Cone: 6.88s
Short Shuttle: 4.08s
Vertical: 30 inches
Broad Jump: 9'6″
Bench Press: DNP
Radar Gun: 60mph
Nothing is alarming about Mahomes when it comes to athletic testing. He did the worst in the 40, but he passed every threshold and did everything at a pretty high level.
Arm Strength and Accuracy
As illustrated by both the radar gun at the combine and on the field, Mahomes has the velocity and ability to push the ball down the field in any offense or any climate. It's strong enough where he's not limited that much when he's unable to set his feet properly.
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His accuracy is impressive and while he will miss some passes, he will also makes some remarkable throws that work and may cause reinforce bad habits as a result. For instance, Mahomes has made throws where he falls off of his pass or is drifting away from the line of scrimmage and they go right to the spot he wants.
On its face, this is great and makes for some truly incredible passes. The potential problem is then relying on that to work every time when the goal should be a balanced throwing platform with proper weight transfer.
Most of the inaccurate throws from Mahomes come from bad footwork when he will just miss the target, especially laterally. In general, good footwork or not, if Mahomes is going to miss, he's going to miss high and long. Generally, that only becomes a problem down the middle of the field.
His combination of arm strength and accuracy is the most impressive in the class. The goal is to maximize those qualities it by making his mechanics as consistent as possible.
Throwing Motion
Mahomes has an efficient throwing motion once his arm gets to where he throws the ball. It's short, past the ear and drives through with a lot of speed usually from a three quarters release, though he can drop to side arm if he deems it necessary.
It's not easy for defenders to pick up with the way he throws it because it's pretty compact. The problem for Mahomes is the path the ball takes to get there.
Nov 19, 2016; Ames, IA, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes II (5) throws a pass against the Iowa State Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
Mahomes is criticized fairly for holding the ball low, keeping in front of the "5" on his jersey in college. He then does a bit of a windmill to get it up to throw. It hasn't proven to be a problem at the collegiate level, likely because of a combination of things:
The good news is Mahomes is aware of it and already working to fix it as announced at the NFL Scouting Combine. When he did drills, he was holding the ball higher as well.
While that is good, muscle memory takes time and reps. And with recent examples like Tim Tebow, Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz, trying to change a throwing motion in one offseason doesn't generally work.
When the games start and the quarterback is under stress, they tend to go with what's instinctive. They don't have time to think about how they are going to throw the ball. They just throw it and the bad habits resurface.
Tebow, Bortles and Wentz all worked hard to improve their throwing motion and by the time their rookie seasons ended, it was as if they didn't do any work on it at all and they right off of the college tape. As with a lot of things Mahomes, it's imperative Jackson and the Browns don't rush him, so that these changes truly take. In the event Mahomes is able to maximize the efficiency of his throwing motion, it will make him play faster.
Footwork
Mahomes has quick feet and is very athletic, but his footwork in games is wildly inconsistent and at times would be downright lazy.
The entire offense works out of the shotgun, but the team has prescribed drops. Mahomes has shown he can be extremely quick and efficient in getting to his drop. He can also quick set to make a fast throw if he reads blitz and needs to go to a hot route.
The flip side of that is Mahomes has plenty of situations where he bounces with his steps as he drops back and even just walks to his landmark. There are examples where because he didn't get to his drop quickly, the play is no longer on schedule and there are bad throws because he's trying to make up time or just doesn't step when he throws, which is far from ideal.
The combine showed that, when Mahomes wants to show good footwork, he can do it. He also appeared to have quickest feet of anyone there. His impressive arm strength also makes it somewhat quicker for Mahomes because he doesn't need to step as far back to push off to generate power. That can speed up his feet and as a result, his throws. It also means he doesn't need as much space to operate, so he can work in tighter quarters than some passers.
Pocket Presence
Mahomes has a pretty good sense of the pocket. One of the best things he does is taking the profit as a scrambler when a hole presents itself up the middle. When there is a lane he can take, he doesn't hesitate and often takes the profit. Texas Tech liked to spread the field and that would often leave little resistance in the middle so he could grab some quick yards and slide. That act in itself created some additional opportunities in the passing game as teams had to be honest to Mahomes as a smart running threat.
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There are times when he will face pressure up the middle and his reaction is to drop back further and further, betting on his legs to keep him safe and his arm strength to make up the difference. This is a risky maneuver to try to pull off in the NFL because of the uptick in speed. Mahomes usually does a pretty good job of finding an angle and working downhill towards the line of scrimmage while keeping his eyes down the field to see his receivers.
Mahomes will take some sacks because he holds onto the ball too long or thinks he can get away with something athletically he can't. That tends to happen with players that trust their legs to get them out of trouble. It's not ideal, but not the end of the world.
One of the areas where Mahomes needs to improve, in addition to how he holds the ball when he is a passer, is how he tends to hold the ball away from his body when he is trying to evade pressure. He can get himself in trouble doing that with one hand. This is where a lot of his fumbles are caused. Someone is able to catch him unaware and knock the ball out or they are simply able to separate him from the football by preventing him from tucking it on contact.
The fact his hands are smaller than ideal also factors into this issue and is another reason that Mahomes needs to do a better job of protecting the football. He is obviously less likely to fumble the ball if he has two hands on the ball and it is quicker to pull against his body, increasing the points of contact to protect it when he is going to be sacked.
The problem is balance. Hue Jackson would have to decide how much he wants to let Mahomes be himself when it comes to being a playmaker and how he wants to avoid sacks, which can result in that sandlot style of play versus having Mahomes do the prescribed method, securing the ball and taking the sack.
Mobility
Mahomes also has tremendous flexibility with his hips, so he can roll out effectively to his right and left and throw the ball effectively. Most quarterbacks hate rolling away from their throwing hand, but Mahomes is not only comfortable doing it, but he is able to reach back far enough where he can still throw to a large amount of the field, which forces the defense to play him more honestly in that situation.
Mahomes is capable of picking up yards as a runner. He has shown he is able to make plays as ball carrier and threaten a defense. He's not someone who should ever have plays called for him to make some elaborate scrambles or draws but if a play breaks down or the team needs him to sneak, he can pick up a first down or get into the end zone.
There are times when Mahomes will pick up some yards, maybe a first down and then run out of bounds or slide to avoid taking unnecessary hits. Mahomes has plenty of instances where he will lower his shoulder and take on contact or jump into the air and reach the ball to try to get extra yards or into the end zone. At times it makes for the spectacular and Mahomes found his way into the end zone plenty. Teammates likely admire his toughness and just how bad he wants to win.
The inherent risk is obviously taking too many hits and wearing down or being injured. And Mahomes has shown impressive toughness but he has suffered some injuries during his time in college, including a wrist injury that required surgery and an AC joint sprain. He played with them and kept going, but the Browns need him to be more risk averse when it comes to his body.
Decision Making
Mahomes is not afraid to make mistakes. He's extremely aggressive and it can be to a fault. Mahomes often does a good job of finding the best option to throw the ball, but there are times when he will make some cardinal sins at the quarterback position.
For example, Mahomes rolls all the way to his right and throws back across the field to find a receiver almost at the left hash. There are times he was burned for it and a team would get an easy interception, but it's a little concerning how often Mahomes got away with it as it might encourage him to try it again.
Whether this is caused by Mahomes playing on a team where he was responsible for almost all of their success and always had the green light or if these are decisions he would make on a team with a great defense, the Browns have to try to find an answer.
Sep 10, 2016; Tempe, AZ, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes II (5) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Obviously, the goal is to eliminate the cardinal sin type throws without taking away what makes Mahomes special as a player. The concern is that he's like Brett Favre and a team is simply going to have to make peace with the fact he'll make these type of potentially game-losing throws, taking the good with the bad and just being along for a wild ride.
If Mahomes is open to being coached and eliminating these types of mistakes, it can really enhance his efficiency as a quarterback. Generally it's better to have to rein in a player that is too aggressive than the opposite, and the Browns coaching staff seems like one that would welcome that mindset, especially since they benched a quarterback in part because he was not aggressive enough.
Miscellaneous
Mahomes is extremely confident in putting the ball in his left hand. He will do it to run and reach with the ball, swapping hands to avoid a defender and on a few occasions has thrown the ball with his left hand, even completing a pass.
This is one of those things that can drive the coach and the opponent nuts. It's one more way he can get into good plays or avoid bad plays, but it's also a risky proposition. Ben Roethlisberger is a quarterback in the NFL that does the same and is quite good at it.
Mahomes has a 13-16 career record as a starter at Texas Tech. Historically, the success rate of quarterbacks with a losing record in college is not good. The biggest success in spite of a losing college record is John Elway on a dreadful Stanford team.
The most recent examples of quarterbacks who have become starters in the NFL with losing records in college are Jay Cutler, Jake Locker and Jared Goff.
As with Goff last year and Deshone Kizer to some extent this year, people will make arguments about how bad the defense was and everything else. Nevertheless, especially at the college level, good quarterbacks, especially those who will succeed in the NFL, tend to lift the talent around them enough to win more games than they lose.
The Big 12 has also had a track terrible record of producing NFL quarterbacks. The most successful Big 12 in recent memory is probably Sam Bradford out of Oklahoma, which is not a ringing endorsement.
Some other quarterbacks selected from the Big 12 are Robert Griffin III (Baylor), Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M, now a member of the SEC), Josh Freeman (Kansas State), Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State), Geno Smith (West Virginia), Colt McCoy (Texas), Bryce Petty (Baylor), Landry Jones (Oklahoma), and Trevone Boykin (TCU).
The transition from the Big 12 conference and their interpretation of defense seems to be a hurdle for quarterbacks in their transition to the NFL. This doesn't mean Mahomes cannot succeed, but it's at least worth mentioning.
Mahomes does have experience taking snaps from center. Despite the fact that Texas Tech worked almost exclusively from the shotgun, Kingsbury had his quarterbacks practice taking snaps from under center on a daily basis. It shouldn't be a big chore to get him to take the ball from under center when he gets to an NFL team.
That does not mean that Mahomes will be ready to operate an offense from under center. He still has to read the defense while dropping back and execute good footwork. It should, however, at least prevent practice time being wasted by him simply being unable to take the snap, which has been a problem for other quarterbacks coming from this type of offense. Goff is a recent example.
Mahomes on the Browns
The best plan of attack with Mahomes is to have him sit for his rookie year, plannig around him for 2018. Not only does he get a chance to acclimate to life in the NFL and being an adult since he won't turn 22 until after the season starts, the coaching staff can take the time to properly work to improve his footwork and how he holds the ball. He can also learn the playbook and increase his confidence, which is critical to his or any other quarterback's success.
That would give him the time to develop the muscle memory to truly correct the flaws in how he throws the football while also starting to learn the difference between the NFL and the Big 12. The earlier he plays, the less likely his efforts to change his delivery will take affect and it may actually set that work back.
Jan 24, 2017; Mobile, AL, USA; South squad head coach Hue Jackson of the Cleveland Browns directs his players during practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Glenn Andrews-USA TODAY Sports
After a year in the NFL and an offseason where he knows his playbook and is trying to work on details, Mahomes should be ready to take the reins of the offense. This would ensure he is confident in his mechanics and what he's seeing on the field and only be concerned with executing it to the best of his ability. The offense with all of its free agent and draft acquisitions will hopefully be settled, on the same page and ready to fire on all cylinders.
What Mahomes brings to the Browns in terms of a skill set is the ability to force opponents defend the entire field. Mahomes, both with his ability to attack down the field and his aggressiveness to do so, would force defenses to cover deeper and open up running lanes and short passing plays with the potential for yards after the catch.
With Corey Coleman and Kenny Britt, the Browns have receivers that can stretch the field and Mahomes has the arm to get it there. He is strong enough to let them run under passes and can throw with enough touch to let them go up and get it.
That threat should open up opportunities for Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell, who have been dangerous as receiving threats in the flat and underneath with the occasional pass up the sideline on the wheel.
They have players such as Seth DeValve, Ricardo Louis and Rashard Higgins that need to prove themselves. In the event they can, they are ready to step in and help Mahomes when he's ready in 2018. If not, the team can further address those positions to try to be ready to help Mahomes when he steps on the field.
The offensive line, especially the left side, allows the Browns to utilize the mobility Mahomes brings to the table. They can move the pocket and allow him to attack different angles of the field and put stress on specific areas of the defense.
So much about this team is scheduled to come together for 2018 that, unless Mahomes is a revelation after they get him, the best path for him and the team is to have him prepared to start next season when it's all scheduled to come together anyway.
Conclusion
Pat Mahomes has more raw talent than any other quarterback in this class. There is plenty to address and it would be unwise to rush him onto the field. Nevertheless, if he can reach his potential, he can be one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.
In a vacuum, Mahomes is the type of quarterback that should go in the second half of the first round and perhaps later in the round to a team that can take some time in his development. For the Browns, who have the 12th pick in the draft and the lack of qualified quarterback prospects in this class, Mahomes is the best option. If they can select him with the 12th pick, they should, but if they have to move up a few spots to ensure they get him, that might be something they have to consider.
It's imperative they have a plan with how they handle Mahomes and caution is the better play here, but his talent combined with where they are as a team, what they have in terms of talent and what fits their team, Mahomes is the best option in the 2017 class.