Cleveland Browns: Keys to victory in week 15 trip to Buffalo
Dec 11, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan (right) and his brother assistant head coach/defense Rob Ryan look on from the sideline during the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at New Era Field. The Steelers beat the Bills 27-20. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
The Cleveland Browns will have their hands full when they travel to western New York to face the 6-7 Buffalo Bills. What must the team do to pull off the unlikely upset?
The Cleveland Browns enter Week 15 as the joke of the NFL, with all odds against them to avoid the first winless season in franchise history.
With each game included, they have been outscored 375-206 this season, and are in danger of falling to 0-14 on the road this week in Buffalo. The Bills come in losers of two straight, placing them on the outside of the playoff picture with little hope remaining.
Shockingly and somewhat ironically, Buffalo also enters this game with less stability than the 0-13 Browns. Recent questions about head coach Rex Ryan and quarterback Tyrod Taylor have been raised, as fans are upset with the lack of progress this season.
The injury report is also not pretty for the Bills, as the status of their top receiving threat and defensive lineman is unknown. Both Kyle Williams and Sammy Watkins were limited in practice on Friday and are listed as questionable for the game.
However, none of this cancels out the lack of talent on these two rosters. The Bills appear to be far superior to the Browns, and come into this December showdown as 10-point favorites.
So in order for Cleveland to pull off the upset, they will need to be on the top of their game in every facet. These five areas are where the Browns should pay careful attention to, as they must excel to give themselves the best chance to win.
Oct 23, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Isaiah Crowell (34) carries the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals won 31-17. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
The majority of Cleveland’s offensive struggles in 2016 have come from their inability to run the ball effectively. Coming in at 26th in the league, the Browns running offense has had its moments, but has lacked consistency.
Part of this problem is due to head coach Hue Jackson and his unwillingness to persist with the running game. In many ways, it is hard to blame him, because the air attack has often been the only way for the Browns to even attain positive yardage. But the team’s incompetence in this area also stems from a feeling that every run has to be a touchdown run.
Naturally, Duke Johnson is a shifty running back. Isaiah Crowell is a lot different, but has veered away from the powerful running which got him from Alabama State to the NFL. This is partially because of the offensive line, which gives the ball carriers little room to work. But it is also due to a false and desperate mentality that every play must be a spectacular one.
When taking the Browns’ typical game plan into account, this mindset could not be further from the truth. Cleveland is a pass-first offense, and a very capable one at that. The purpose of running the ball is to keep the defense honest and to move the sticks; nothing more.
This is why Johnson and Crowell must lower their expectations. Buffalo’s defensive front is stout, but they have surrendered the fifth most yards on the ground in 2016. Taking what the defense gives is a start to making passing downs manageable. And when passing downs are manageable, fans will truly get to find out whether or not their highly touted receivers are for real.
Dec 11, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
The stats from Robert Griffin III‘s return to action in Week 14 were alarming. Completing just 43 percent of his pass attempts and barely topping 100 yards, the highly touted off-season acquisition finished with a QBR of just 38.4.
Of course, this came against the 12th-ranked passing defense in less than ideal conditions. The bad news is, Buffalo’s pass defense is ranked seventh, and Sunday’s weather isn’t supposed to be much better.
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The key to success on what will be a difficult day through the air for the Browns will be giving Griffin more flexibility. There were too many instances last week when the 26-year-old was forced to make a poor decision because either the play called for it, or he didn’t have any other options.
For example, his lone interception on the day came off of a flea flicker play in which he threw into triple coverage. Doing this seemed to defy all logic, yet the former Baylor Bear had no other choice.
The Browns absolutely need Griffin to be himself on Sunday. This means escaping from the pocket even if it puts his health at risk. After all, with the way Cleveland’s offensive line has been pass protecting, his health is at risk anyway.
Terrelle Pryor also needs to exceed his total of one reception for three yards from last week. More than one receiver needs to have multiple receptions, and the Browns desperately need to connect on a deep throw.
But this all begins with opening up the playbook for Griffin. Allowing him to move out of the pocket will give the offense a better look, give them confidence, and alleviate some of the pressure on the offensive line. Doing this will also make the offense flow smoother, and give it an unpredictable vibe. With an 0-13 record, predictable offense results in a predictable outcome.
And if nothing else, allowing Griffin to be himself will serve as an honest assessment of the skills which made the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner a smash success in his rookie season. If the Browns believe he can be the longterm solution at quarterback, they will need to find opportunities to see whether or not his skills mesh with the current scheme established by Jackson.
Dec 11, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) runs with the ball during the second half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at New Era Field. The Steelers beat the Bills 27-20. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
The biggest problem the Browns have in this one is pretty straight forward. The Bills are the top-ranked rushing offense in football, and the Browns are the second-worst rushing defense. Coming off of another game in which Cleveland surrendered more than 200 yards on the ground, they don’t appear to be getting any better.
Stopping LeSean McCoy is always a priority for defenses when playing Buffalo, but should be especially emphasized for Cleveland. Just 24 yards short of the 1,000 mark on the year, he former Philadelphia Eagle is having a very productive second half of the season.
A lot of his success has come from his mentality of being a power runner the past six weeks. Instead of dancing around in the backfield in an effort to elude defenders, McCoy is now going north-south rather than east-west.
The key for the Browns will be to try and keep him under 100 yards on the afternoon. This will be a very difficult task, but an essential goal to accomplish. Given the assumption that Cleveland’s offense won’t light up the scoreboard, it will be necessary to keep the Bills from controlling the clock. Frustrating their rushing attack and forcing them into third-and-long situations is the most effective way to do this.
The Bills also have a capable second running back in Mike Gillislee, a third-year, 26-year-old who has gained 409 yards on the ground thus far this year. Gillislee is also a threat through the air, giving the Browns yet another weapon to prepare for.
Still, Buffalo’s offense begins and ends with McCoy. At 215 pounds, the 28-year-old is the skill positions player Cleveland ought to spend the most time in preparation for.
Dec 11, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers safety Sean Davis (28) dives to try and make a tackle on Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor (5) during the first half at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Third down defense has been a major struggle for the Browns for several years now. Defensive coordinator Ray Horton‘s scheme does not usually call for a whole lot of pass rush. Cleveland surrendered eight third-down conversions last week, and had just 15 opportunities to take position back.
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Unfortunately, there is no other way for the Browns to get off the field than to rush seven. Obviously, their secondary is inexperienced and thin, so in some ways it would make sense to help them out as much as possible. But contrary to common thought, the way to do this is not always to send all four linebackers into pass coverage. The best way to assist the secondary is by manufacturing a strong and consistent pass rush.
The troubling trend that the Browns have allowed to manifest has been a non-existent pass rush, which gives opposing quarterbacks far too much time to pick apart even a highly populated secondary. The time for desperation has come, which means that the Browns will just have to bring the house and ask questions later.
Outside linebackers Emmanuel Ogbah and Jamie Collins will be critical in this one, coming from the edge to collapse the pocket on a mobile quarterback. Carl Nassib will also be a player to watch, as he has been a pass-rushing threat, even with just 1.5 sacks on the year.
The benefits of pass rush go beyond sacks. If the Browns are able to hurry Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor on multiple occasions, they will force incompletions. Plus, with three deep threats in Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Marquise Goodwin, forcing the ball out of Taylor’s hands quickly is one way to make this aspect of Buffalo’s game a non-factor.
Sep 25, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry (14) runs with the ball against the defense of Cleveland Browns cornerback Briean Boddy-Calhoun (20) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium.The Miami Dolphins defeat the Cleveland Browns 34-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
In a season like the one the Browns are currently in the midst of, it is very easy to over-react and try too hard. This became very clear on special teams last week when they ran out three kickoffs instead of taking a touchback to the 25-yard-line, costing them field position each time.
Much like the first key, the Browns have to capitalize on any opening the Bills give them. Buffalo has some talent, but they by no means will play a flawless game. Taking what is there for the taking will get the Browns closer to victory than they may realize.
Much of this is on special teams, but it isn’t just this unit where this adjustment has to be made. Defensively, Cleveland must be careful not to over pursue in their pass rush against a mobile quarterback. Taylor will take off and run, and could easily take over the game with his legs. Making sure the pocket is secure takes discipline and coordination, two areas where the Browns have struggles immensely this season.
Also, since the Bills like to place an extra offensive lineman and tight end on the left side of the formation and run McCoy to the right, Cleveland has to avoid being drawn in. They must stick with their assignments and not over-react to any given formation.
Most of all, when something doesn’t go Cleveland’s way, the Browns must keep playing. As this past Sunday’s game revealed, there are lots of opportunities throughout games to recover from mistakes that are made. A fast start would be nice, but it isn’t essential in this one.
It will be fascinating to observe in this one whether or not the Browns and Bills will come out with the intensity that they will need to win. Both teams are in positions where quitting is common, yet the best can come out as well. This is why this game is so unpredictable in many ways. But what is known is that the Browns will absolutely need to play four quarters consistently, an pay attention to these five areas especially.