Chiefs-49ers 'will probably be most highly-wagered NFL game' so far in 2024
Whenever the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet on the football field these days, Las Vegas sportsbooks see dollar signs.
That’s because it’s easy for customers to get to the window either way.
In one corner, you have the three-time Super Bowl winning trifecta of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid. An NFC juggernaut with one of the league’s most-talented rosters stands in the other corner.
The storylines and betting angles flow from every direction, and that will be the case as the two face off this weekend on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
"This will probably be our most highly-wagered NFL game up to this point in the season," Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman told FOX Sports. "It’ll see the most volume ‘til now, and we expect split opinions and solid two-way action on both sides.
"We’re sitting Niners -1.5 right now. We opened -1 and wrote early Niners’ support from people betting the Super Bowl revenge angle. We’ve seen more parlays on the Niners at this point, too, and I expect the number to rise a little bit. Then we’ll eventually write Chiefs moneyline action to even it out.
"We should be a little heavier on the Niners side, but it feels like 1.5 is the sweet spot for this game. I don’t see it getting towards San Francisco -2.5/3 or PK/Kansas City -1 on the other end. It’s a good number where it’s at."
The appetite to bet both teams will likely make for a happy bottom line in the game. For every dollar that believes in San Francisco avenging its Super Bowl loss from February, there’s a dollar eyeing Mahomes as an underdog.
And maybe you’ve heard Reid is 21-4 all-time off a bye.
"News to me," Sherman cracked sarcastically.
Mahomes enters Sunday’s tilt with six touchdowns and six interceptions this season, statistics that made me double and triple check my notes. Yet the Chiefs are a sparkly 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread (ATS).
The two-time NFL MVP is favored to bring home another.
NFL MVP odds at Westgate SuperBook:
Patrick Mahomes: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Josh Allen: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
C.J. Stroud: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Lamar Jackson: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Brock Purdy: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Jayden Daniels: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Jared Goff: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Sam Darnold: +1600 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Jordan Love: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Joe Burrow: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Baker Mayfield: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Jalen Hurts: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
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"Josh Allen has taken a ton of MVP money, and it feels like he should be the frontrunner, but Mahomes is the default," Sherman opined. "You look at the Chiefs’ undefeated record and combine that with everybody’s perception of Mahomes and there’s this narrative of him carrying the team.
"It’s more indicative of Kansas City’s record than Mahomes’ stats. Allen is doing more with less and performing better numbers-wise, while Mahomes is making it happen in the standings. It’s going to be an interesting race."
Then there’s Brock Purdy and the 3-3 Niners.
Everybody knows San Francisco’s ceiling when healthy, yet here it sits at .500 through six games. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Talanoa Hufanga have all missed time, Javon Hargrave is out for the season with a torn trice, and Dre Greenlaw is still on the PUP list.
"They’re a top-two team at full strength," Sherman admitted. "That said, the injuries started adding up during the loss at Minnesota. If they can get guys healthy and through the regular season, they’ll be okay.
"The Niners’ division helps, too. Those other teams are doing them favors. The Rams are really banged up, Seattle isn’t trustworthy and Arizona keeps stringing together sub-par performances. That allows the Niners to hang around.
"As incredible as the NFC North is with those four teams, the Niners will still have a higher power rating than any of them if they can get right."
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Reid and Kyle Shanahan are both exceptional coaches that have proven their ability to navigate health issues and elevate ancillary players. That’s what makes elite teams elite — sustaining injuries and developing depth.
Would you be surprised if the two met in another Super Bowl?
"We’ve got a ton of Chiefs’ Super Bowl liability," Sherman reported. "It’s a six-digit liability. We’re actually in real good shape for the conference, but the Chiefs are No. 1 in ticket count and No. 1 in money for the Super Bowl.
"There’s enough time where we can get [the K.C. liability] into a positive figure by the time the playoffs roll around. Larger wagers tend to show up on other teams with shorter odds. We’ve always been able to catch up.
"I’m confident we’ll be okay there."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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