Can Mike McDaniel revive Tua's success? Mike White changing Jets: AFC East analysis

By Henry McKenna
Updated Dec. 13, 2022 5:42 p.m. ET

The AFC East showed more vulnerability this week. And now it's fair to critically evaluate the playoff chances for every team aside from the Buffalo Bills (10-3), who remain in the top spot in the AFC.

The Miami Dolphins (8-5) must protect their wild-card seed over the next few weeks, with big games against the Bills, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots (7-6) and New York Jets (7-6). New England and New York are coming for that spot. But with the Patriots struggling enormously on offense and the Jets dealing with an injury at quarterback, neither team looks lethal.

So what's next for the AFC East? At points this season, it seemed fair to wonder if the entire division might somehow make the playoffs. Now it seems feasible — though admittedly unlikely — that three of them miss out.

Let's dive into this week's takeaways.

Mike McDaniel needs to restore Tua Tagovailoa's star qualities

It seems that, with enough weeks to see the Dolphins' blueprint for success, the NFL has figured out how to stop them. The past two weeks have been a regression for Tua Tagovailoa, who looks like the tentative quarterback from 2021 — not the potential MVP candidate of 2022.

Those MVP changes are completely dead.

Over the last two weeks, he has completed just 46% of his passes for 220 yards per game with three total touchdowns and two interceptions. Prior to Week 13, he was completing 70% of his passes for 285 yards per game with 19 touchdowns and three interceptions.

It has been a rude awakening for Tagovailoa and McDaniel.

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Nick Wright looks to the Dolphins' next four games and compares their opponents' defenses to what they saw from the Chargers last Sunday. He says things could turn south for the Dolphins quickly if they don’t turn things around.

There's a simple and a more complicated answer for why the Dolphins offense isn't clicking. The simple answer is that teams are stopping Tagovailoa from getting the ball to his two best playmakers: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. How? Well, that's the more complicated part.

The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers didn't have a carbon copy of a game plan. But what's working is press, man coverage in passing situations — with a healthy injection of zone play on third-and-long. It helps to get some pressure on Tagovailoa. Teams are also bracketing Hill with a little more success, because the other parts of the game plan have Tagovailoa out of rhythm.

"It really just goes back to the details on how we play our offense, and we're not all dialed in with that," Tagovailoa said Sunday after the game. "So we have to go back to the drawing board, figure this out and got to keep from losing."

The idea is to disrupt Tua's timing. He has been excellent at anticipating where his receivers are going to find space — before they actually find it. But defenses are killing those anticipation throws before they can begin.

So now what? Well the good news is that there's no panic.

"[Tagovailoa] played good enough for us to win the game, so like I said, I'm going to point no fingers at nobody," Hill said Sunday after the game. "I think Tua played well enough for us to win this game and for myself, I've just got to make plays for him."

But there's also a sense of realism.

"We were out of whack, out of rhythm. We're trying to find it," Tagovailoa said.

Miami has to change things up. It has to adapt and evolve. The Dolphins haven't had to change their offense much this year. So this will be the first big adaptation for McDaniel. He drew up an amazing system that has thrived. But now — as it goes with every good coach — he will have to keep tinkering to keep the success going and figure out how to highlight the skills of his quarterback.

The Dolphins' secondary issues won't go away

Miami has a lingering issue. Its cornerbacks are really struggling, including top corner Xavien Howard. He has a 58.3 defensive grade on Pro Football Focus, the second-lowest overall grade of his career. His coverage grade (56.3) is the lowest of his career. Even in a year when offenses are struggling, Howard has looked sluggish — and not the typical shutdown corner that he was the past two years.

To make matters worse, the Dolphins have made cornerback Noah Igbinoghene a healthy scratch. It would have been crazy to think he'd contribute, given how much he has struggled. At the same time, Miami's whiff on him in the first round of the 2020 draft has clearly had a ricochet effect.

So with Igbinoghene clearly a bust and cornerback Byron Jones unable to get healthy, th Dolphins have leaned on undrafted rookie cornerback Kader Kohou, who has struggled with such a sizable work share, and on veteran cornerback Keion Crossen, who is mostly a special-teams standout.

The return of Jones would go a long way in shoring up this secondary. But McDaniel has indicated Jones isn't coming back. The Dolphins will have to make do.

Bills giving up on Odell?

Not long after Odell Beckham made his tour around the country meeting with teams, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones suggested the receiver's knee was far from healed. When something like that breaks, it's important to wait and see what happens next. Sometimes, teams are putting that information out to gain leverage in contract negotiations. But given that the Cowboys signed receiver T.Y. Hilton and the Bills signed receiver Cole Beasley, that seems to confirm the reports that Beckham is unlikely to be ready for this year.

I won't say that Beasley's signing confirms the Bills' decision to pass on Beckham. Beasley and Beckham are different players in different price brackets. But I don't think it bodes well for Beckham if he wants to play this year. He's likely looking at a return in 2023.

Elijah Moore's uptick should only help Garrett Wilson's dominance

The ups and downs of Elijah Moore's season have been wild. In the preseason, Joe Flacco compared Moore to Steve Smith. That built the hype for 2022. 

But with Zach Wilson at the helm of the Jets offense, they couldn't support production for three receivers. That meant that Garrett Wilson would eat and Corey Davis would show up in the clutch. But Moore did not get the snaps or targets he wanted.

It got even darker when Moore demanded a trade. And the Jets basically refused to do so.

Time has warmed his icy relationship with New York. A change at quarterback helped, too.

With Mike White under center, the Jets are throwing the ball more. They clearly trust White more than Wilson. So the balanced offense has led to Moore's uptick, including 10 targets and six catches for 60 yards on Sunday against the Bills.

"It almost feels like he's just let go, in terms of he's just going out, having fun and just playing football, and it's almost as if the result doesn't matter," coach Robert Saleh said Monday. "He's just been progressively getting faster and faster and more precise in his route-running. And because of it, he's getting the separation and he's finding ways to get open, and obviously Mike has been able to deliver him the football."

That should only help Wilson as he takes over the WR1 role for New York. Over the past three weeks, he has 335 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Josh Uche's breakout season is wild

With Matthew Judon making a case for Defensive Player of the Year, the edge rusher has lifted the production and performance of a few players around him. I've mentioned that defensive end Deatrich Wise is enjoying the best season of his career. Well, another guy is breaking out, thanks in part to Judon.

Josh Uche is playing out of his mind. He has 10 sacks in five games. It has been an absurd run.

"I told y'all I wasn't the best pass rusher," Judon said after Monday's game. "And our best pass rusher is emerging. People are going to have to block him. If they don't and they chip my side and they worry about me, Uche will do that every week. I just love the way he's playing with confidence and poise. This is the most he's played since he's been in the NFL, so it's taking a toll on him, but he's going out there and he's having a lot of success."

New England's defense is the only thing keeping the team's playoff chances alive. The offense is having substantial issues, with schematic problems that seem to be causing tension between Mac Jones and Matt Patricia. But everything is hunky-dory on defense, where the Patriots stars have nothing but love for each other.

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Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.