Can Bucs succeed despite floundering offense? We use history as a guide

Much of the perspective on the Buccaneers' 5-6 start has centered around Tampa Bay's underwhelming play and losing record in potentially Tom Brady's final NFL season.

But given how much the Bucs' offense has struggled to score points this season, it's historically impressive that Tampa Bay has even been able to salvage five wins in 11 games.

Tampa Bay has scored 200 total points in their 11 games, down from an NFL-best 347 at this point last year. Only five NFL teams have scored fewer points this season, and given where 200-point teams normally stand at this time of year, it's remarkable they're even in playoff contention, let alone leading a division as they are atop the NFC South.

In the past 15 seasons, a total of 82 teams have scored 200 points or less through 11 games, and of those 82, only two ended up making the playoffs — the 2016 Texans, who went 9-7 and even won a wild-card game, and the 2014 Lions, who went 11-5 behind a strong defense but lost in the wild-card round. Only one other team out of 82 even mustered a winning record: the 2018 Titans at 9-7. 

Consider a few terrible Bucs teams that still managed to score more than the 200 points this year's Bucs and Brady have scored with a 5-6 record, while winning fewer games:

• The 2014 Bucs, who went 2-14 behind Josh McCown, scored 207 points in their first 11 games, going 2-9.
• The 2013 Bucs, who went 4-12 with rookie Mike Glennon at quarterback, had 211 points after 11 games, going 3-8.
• The 1985 Bucs, who went 2-14 with Steve DeBerg, had 228 after 11 games, going 1-10.

So being 5-6 and leading a division is a testament to two things: leaning heavily on the defense to win games, and the good fortune of playing in a poor division. NFC South teams are 11-22 in games outside their division, and only the AFC South (10-21) is worse this season. It's very possible the division produces a champion that doesn't have a winning record, something that's happened only five other times in 20 seasons since the current eight-division alignment started in 2002.

Needless to say, it's the lowest-scoring team Brady has led in his 23 NFL seasons. In his 18 seasons as a starter with the Patriots, the fewest any New England team had scored after 11 games was his 2003 team. There's some consolation there, as that Patriots team leaned on its defense and was 9-2 at this point, on the way to winning Brady's second of six Super Bowls with New England.

Winning low-scoring games and relying on defense isn't what Bucs fans have come to know in the last two years, but it's also a nod to Tampa Bay's history, which is much more rooted in dominating defenses. Two Bucs teams have made the playoffs without scoring 200 points in the first 11 games: the 1999 Bucs, who lost in the conference championship game by an 11-6 score, scored only 174 in their first 11 games, and the 1981 Bucs, who won the NFC Central before getting shut out by the Cowboys 38-0 in the playoffs, scored only 180.

Can an NFL team survive in the playoffs while scoring so little? In 56 years of Super Bowls, only one team has scored 200 points or less in its first 11 games and made it to the Super Bowl: The 2000 Ravens, with one of the best defenses in NFL history, had just 191 at this point, giving up a total of 23 points in four playoff games on the way to a Super Bowl championship.

Even on defense, the Bucs have managed to win at a level that's rare for a defense  that doesn't force many turnovers — 11 total takeaways in 11 games. Only one NFL team with so few has a better record (the Dolphins, at 8-3) and in the last three seasons, only three NFL teams have made the playoffs while forcing so few turnovers 11 games into the season: last year's 49ers and Steelers and the 2020 Bears.

The Bucs are 5-6 despite scoring 23 points or more just once in their first 11 games, matching the NFL low this season. If that continues and they still make the playoffs, it would put them in extremely rare company — in the Super Bowl era, out of more than 600 playoff teams, only two have made the playoffs while scoring 23 or more points less than three times. The 1978 Falcons did it once and the 1994 Bears did it twice — both were able to win a single playoff game as well, but they're the only two.

Tampa Bay's offense could wake up in the final six games of the regular season. The Bucs could also miss the playoffs entirely. But if they get to the postseason, scoring as little as they have, it will be a different kind of rare accomplishment to add to Brady's long list in his NFL career.

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Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.