Big Picture: Can the Broncos Actually Beat the Patriots Without Bo Nix?

As news of Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle injury was still sinking in following Denver's divisional-round victory over the Bills, a former NFL backup quarterback gave stunned Broncos fans reason to believe in new QB1 Jarrett Stidham. 

Nick Foles, who famously led the Eagles to a Lombardi Trophy in the 2017 season filling in for injured starter Carson Wentz, tweeted a reference to his success against the Patriots, the team the Broncos will face in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game. 

"A positive note going into the game versus the Patriots is that they struggle against backup QBs in championship-type games," Foles quipped on X.

Denver, however, can’t rely on that history in Sunday’s AFC title duel. This is a different era of New England football, with coach Mike Vrabel and MVP candidate Drake Maye, but the sentiment remains: toppling the Patriots is possible, even if it will be exponentially more difficult without starting QB Nix. 

Of course, veteran backup Stidham playing the part of effective game manager is in the equation. He doesn’t need to be a hero, but he must protect the ball and keep the Broncos’ offense on schedule. 

The 29-year-old Stidham has played just four snaps this season and hasn’t attempted a pass. A 2019 fourth-round pick, the former Auburn standout signed with the Broncos in 2023 as a free agent ahead of Sean Payton’s first season as Denver's coach. 

In four career starts with the Raiders (2022) and Broncos (2023), Stidham has completed 62.5% of his passes for 1,080 yards and six touchdowns with four interceptions and an 89.7 passer rating.

The Patriots have faced a team’s non-Week 1 starting QB five times this season — in Weeks 8 (Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns), 12 (Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals), 16 (Tyler Huntley, Baltimore Ravens), 17 (Brady Cook, New York Jets) and 18 (Quinn Ewers, Miami Dolphins). Against those quarterbacks, New England allowed a 60.8% completion rate for 693 yards and four touchdowns with five interceptions. The Patriots won all five games. 

Though the odds are against them, the Broncos are rallying around their backup QB.

"The plan always has to be built around the type and the skill set of the players you’re playing with," Payton said Monday. "So are there certain things that Bo does differently than ‘Stiddy’? Absolutely.

"One of Stiddy’s great strengths is his mental aptitude and his progressions in understanding plays."

READ MORE: Jarrett Stidham is 'Ready for the Moment,' Just Ask His College Coaches

To back up Stidham, Denver's elite defense will have to be on its A-game, leading the charge against New England's dynamic offense. 

The Broncos boasted the NFL's best pass rush during the regular season, leading the league in sacks (68), sack rate (8.7%) and pressures (285), and ranked second in pressure rate (40.7%), according to Next Gen Stats. Denver's 68 sacks marked the fifth-most by any team in a season in the Super Bowl era. 

The Patriots had one of the NFL’s most explosive passing offenses in 2025. The Denver defense, however, limited opposing wide receivers to 6.6 yards per target (second-fewest in the NFL), a 31.1% first down rate (second-lowest), a 13.3% explosive reception rate (lowest) and six touchdowns (tied for fewest) in the regular season, per NGS. 

The Broncos also have a stout run defense, giving up just 91.1 rushing yards per game in the regular season, which ranked second in the NFL. 

The biggest key for Denver, though, could be the effectiveness of its run game.

While the Broncos are a middle-of-the-pack rushing team — 16th in total rushing, tied for 17th in expected points added per rush — they lack explosive playmaking on the ground. Denver ranked 25th in rushing yards after contact per carry during the regular season and now will be without the mobile Nix. 

The second-year pro had five rushing touchdowns, second on the Broncos and tied for fifth among NFL quarterbacks, and recorded 34 runs of 15-plus miles per hour, which ranked ninth among passers, per NGS. His two rushes of 20-plus mph ranked second among QBs in the regular season. 

The potential return of starting running back J.K. Dobbins, who had foot surgery in November and returned to practice this week, would go a long way toward supporting Stidham and the offense. Dobbins led Denver in 2025 with 772 rushing yards despite missing seven games. Before his foot injury, he averaged 3.5 yards after contact per carry, which tied for 13th among the 49 qualified running backs, per NGS. 

If Dobbins isn’t activated, it could be tough sledding against the Patriots offensively. New England allowed just 101.7 rushing yards per game during the regular season, which ranked sixth in the NFL. 

Regardless of who's in the backfield supporting him, there will be pressure on Stidham. Payton thinks he's up for the challenge.

"There’d be practices where I’m looking at [defensive coordinator] Vance [Joseph], like getting pissed off because Stiddy is making our defense look bad," Payton said. "He’s very accurate. He has a lot to his ball."

We’re about to find out if that's enough in a championship-type game. 

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