Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Wild Card Round: Prediction, odds, picks

The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers will play in the AFC Wild Card round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. The Bills are heavy 10-point favorites, expected to win by at least two scores. 

The Bills are on a heater, having won their last five games en route to the AFC East title. The Steelers haven't been too shabby themselves, winning their last three as they secured a non-losing season for the 20th straight year. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Steelers and Bills — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Bills vs. Steelers Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Steelers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Pittsburgh (+10) 
• Pick OU: Over (36) 
• Prediction: Buffalo 25 - Pittsburgh 16

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

This is a house money game for the Steelers, and Tomlin, who is excellent as an underdog. They were left for dead a few weeks ago, losing home games to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots, yet here they are in the Wild Card. 

They are not to be trusted as a favorite, but if they're getting 10 points? Sign me up! 

I advocated a month ago for betting the Bills at 50-1 to win the Super Bowl on Bear Bets Podcast, but they are aggressively untrustworthy. They struggled to win recently as big favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers and Patriots, and didn’t come close to covering either double-digit line. 

The Bills should get the win, but I have no interest in laying the big number here. 

PICK: Steelers (+10) to lose by fewer than 10 points (or win outright)

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh

• Game Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV: Watch on CBS

Bills vs. Steelers Recent Matchups

• In their past five head-to-head contests, Pittsburgh has beaten Buffalo three times.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has scored 101 points against Pittsburgh, while allowing only 82 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

• In 17 Buffalo games this season, it has seven wins against the spread.
• The Bills have not covered the spread when favored by 10 points or more this season (in four opportunities).
• Buffalo games in 2023 have hit the over six times in 17 opportunities (35.3%).
• The Bills have compiled a 10-4 record in games they played as the moneyline favorite (winning 71.4% of those games).
• Buffalo has played three times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -535 or shorter, and earned a victory in each game.
• The implied probability in this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Bills an 84.3% chance to win.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has thrown for 4,306 yards (fourth in the NFL), 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and 18 interceptions this year. He averages 253.3 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt, while completing 66.5% of his passes.
• He has also rushed for 524 yards (second on the Bills) and added 15 touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 30.8 rushing yards per game.
• James Cook's rushing output this season includes 1,122 yards (fourth in the NFL) and two TDs. He's averaging 66.0 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt (ninth in the NFL).
• He has also caught 44 passes (on 54 targets) for 445 receiving yards with four touchdowns. He's averaging 26.2 receiving yards and 2.6 catches per game.
• Through 17 games played, Stefon Diggs is averaging 69.6 yards and 6.3 receptions per game on the way to 1,183 receiving yards and 107 catches (seventh in the NFL). He's been targeted 160 times, and has eight receiving touchdowns (eighth in the NFL).
• Gabriel Davis has 45 receptions for 746 yards and seven touchdowns. He's been targeted 81 times in the air attack, and averages 2.8 receptions and 46.6 yards in 16 games played.

Defense

• On the defensive side, Terrel Bernard has 6.5 sacks (third on the Bills) to go with 10.0 TFL, 143 tackles, and three interceptions in 2023.
• Taron Johnson has 98 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack this season. He's third on the Bills in tackles.
• Ed Oliver has totaled 51 tackles, 14.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and one interception this year.
• So far this season, Rasul Douglas has 61 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and five interceptions. He's fifth on the Bills in tackles.

Pittsburgh Betting Info

• Pittsburgh is 10-7-0 against the spread this year.
• Games involving Pittsburgh have hit the over on six occasions this year.
• The Steelers have entered the game as underdogs 10 times this season and won six of those games.
• Pittsburgh has not been a bigger underdog this season than the +400 moneyline set for this game.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Steelers have a 20.0% chance to win.

Steelers Stats

Pittsburgh's Key Players

Offense

• Najee Harris has rushed for eight touchdowns this year, and has 1,035 total rushing yards (60.9 per game and 4.1 per attempt).
• George Pickens has 1,140 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 63 receptions, while being targeted 106 times.
• Jaylen Warren has rushed for four touchdowns this year, and has totaled 784 rushing yards (46.1 per game and 5.3 per attempt).
• Warren's stat sheet includes 61 receptions (3.6 per game) on 74 targets for 370 yards (21.8 per game), though he has not found the end zone through the air.
• In 12 games, Kenny Pickett has 2,070 passing yards, with six touchdowns against four interceptions and completing 62.0% of his passes.
• He has added 54 rushing yards (fourth on the Steelers), while scoring one touchdown on the ground (averaging 4.5 yards per game and 1.3 per carry).

Defense

• In 2023, T.J. Watt has 68 tackles, 19.0 TFL, 19 sacks, and one interception through 17 games.
• Elandon Roberts' stat sheet includes 101 tackles, 10.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and two passes defended.
• Alex Highsmith has recorded 7.0 sacks (second on the Steelers) as well as 8.0 TFL, 57 tackles, and two interceptions in the 2023 season.
• Damontae Kazee has totaled 61 tackles and two interceptions through 14 games.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.