Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Prediction, Odds, Picks

In a Week 1 Monday Night Football matchup of division rivals, the Buffalo Bills (0-0) will travel to the New York Jets (0-0) as slim favorites (-2.5). 

The Jets are eager to get the season off on a good foot with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, while Josh Allen and the Bills are looking forward to finally getting over the hump and reaching the Super Bowl. 

The five most popular prop bets to note for this MNF matchup according to BetMGM are: Garrett Wilson to score anytime touchdown (+145) and Over 68.5 receiving yards (-115), Stefon Diggs to score first touchdown (+850), and lastly, Josh Allen Over 36.5 rushing yards (-115) and Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100), both have 99% of the bets on the Over. 

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for the matchup between the Bills and Jets — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica. 

Bills vs. Jets Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Jets Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buffalo (-2.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (45.5) 
• Prediction: Buffalo 25 - Jets 16

Pick Via FOX Sports Wagering Expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica:

Let me start this off by saying I am a Jets fan. I have lived the misery my entire life. I am always expecting the worst. However, despite all of that, I am all in on this season. The Jets split with the Bills last year despite being led by Zach Wilson and Mike White at QB. Josh Allen struggled in both games. 

The Jets defense should be just as good, if not better, than last year, and they have potentially one of the biggest one-year roster improvements ever at the QB position. Given their early season schedule, this is a massive game for the Jets, and it's certainly one of the more winnable ones. 

I thought more people would be on the Jets here, but that might not be the case. Some may be deterred that this is not a full three points, but again, the number being less than a field goal says to me the books are attracting Bills money, and that’s a good thing if you are on the Jets here. 

PICK: New York Jets (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

How to Watch Buffalo vs. New York

• Game Date: Monday, September 11, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: MetLife Stadium
• Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
• TV: Watch on ABC/ESPN

Bills vs. Jets Recent Matchups

• In their last five head-to-head matchups, New York has taken down Buffalo three times.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, New York has scored 88 points against Buffalo, while surrendering only 83 points.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo covered eight times in 16 matchups with a spread last season.
• The Bills' ATS record as 2.5-point favorites or more was 8-10 last year.
• Buffalo games went over the point total six out of 16 times last season.
• The Bills were favored on the moneyline 16 total times last season. They went 13-3 in those games.
• Buffalo had a 13-4 record last year (winning 76.5% of its games) when it played as a moneyline favorite of -135 or shorter.
• The implied moneyline probability in this matchup gives the Bills a 57.4% chance to win.

Bills Stats (2022)

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen threw for 4,283 yards last year (to rank seventh in the NFL), with 35 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and 14 interceptions. He completed 63.3% of his passes while averaging 267.7 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.
• He added 762 yards on the ground, while scoring seven rushing touchdowns. He averaged 47.6 yards per game and 6.1 per attempt.
• Stefon Diggs put together a 2022 stat sheet that included 108 catches (fourth in the NFL) for 1,429 yards (fifth in the NFL) and 11 receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL) over 16 games played. He was on the receiving end of 154 targets and averaged 6.8 receptions per game.
• Latavius Murray rushed for six touchdowns last year and totaled 760 rushing yards (58.5 per game and 4.4 per attempt).
• Murray's offensive output included 27 receptions (2.1 per game) on 35 targets for 132 yards (10.2 per game), but he did not found the end zone through the air.
• Gabriel Davis had 836 receiving yards and seven touchdowns from 48 receptions on 93 targets.

Defense

• In 2022, Matt Milano put up 1.5 sacks to go with 12.0 TFL, 99 tackles, and three interceptions in 15 games.
• Leonard Floyd had 59 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and nine sacks for the Rams.
• Taron Johnson recorded 6.0 TFL, 89 tackles, and one interception in the 2022 campaign.
• Damar Hamlin had 1.5 sacks to go with 6.0 TFL and 88 tackles in 15 games.

New York Betting Info

• New York put together an 8-9-0 record against the spread last season.
• As 2.5-point underdogs or greater, the Jets went 6-6 against the spread last season.
• New York games went over the point total five out of 17 times last year.
• Last season, the Jets were the underdog 12 times and won five, or 41.7%, of those games.
• New York was 5-7 last season when entering a game as the underdog by +114 or more on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Jets have a 46.7% chance to win.

Jets Stats (2022)

New York's Key Players

Offense

• In 17 games last year for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers totaled 3,695 passing yards, while throwing 26 TD passes (seventh in NFL) and 12 INTs, connecting on 64.6% of his throws.
• On the ground, Rodgers added one TD and 94 yards.
• Dalvin Cook had 1,173 rushing yards for the Vikings (sixth in the NFL) and eight TDs, averaging 69.0 yards per game and 4.4 per carry (25th in NFL).
• Cook also had 39 catches for 295 yards and two receiving TDs. He was targeted 56 times and averaged 17.4 yards per game.
• In 17 games last year, Garrett Wilson had 83 catches (4.9 per game on 8.6 targets per game) for 1,103 yards and four TDs.
• For the Packers, Allen Lazard had 60 catches for 788 yards and six TDs. He averaged 4.0 yards per game in 15 games and was targeted 100 times.

Defense

• In 2022, C.J. Mosley had 1.0 sack to go along with 5.0 TFL, 158 tackles, and one interception over 17 games.
• Quinnen Williams put up 55 tackles, 12.0 TFL, 12 sacks, and four passes defended.
• In the 2022 campaign, Quincy Williams posted 106 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and three sacks over 15 games.
• Adrian Amos registered 1.0 sack plus 7.0 TFL, 97 tackles, and one interception over 17 games for the Packers.