Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys: Prediction, odds, picks

The Buffalo Bills (7-6) are slight favorites (-2.5) over the Dallas Cowboys (10-3), despite the Cowboys having won five games straight. 

Both of these teams scored victories in Week 14. The Cowboys defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 33-13 in their contest, while the Buffalo Bills took down the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Cowboys and Bills — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Bills vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Lines

Bills vs. Cowboys Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Dallas (+2.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (51) 
• Prediction: Dallas 25 - Buffalo 22

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

I was all over the Cowboys last week, but I’m going the other way this time. 

The Cowboys are fresh off of an emotional statement win against their division rivals, and now have to go on the road to take on a desperate Bills squad. 

Dallas is a warm-weather dome team that loves to play at home. Here they have to travel and play outdoors in cold conditions against a team that needs every win it can get to stay alive. 

This is the perfect letdown spot for the visitors. I like the Bills to keep it going. 

PICK: Bills (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Dallas

• Game Date: Sunday, December 17, 2023
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV: Watch on FOX

Bills vs. Cowboys Recent Matchups

• In their past five head-to-head bouts, Dallas has won against Buffalo three times.
• Buffalo has been outpaced by 21 points in its last five tilts against Dallas.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo has played 13 games, posting five wins against the spread.
• The Bills have been favored by 2.5 points or more 10 times this season, and covered the spread in four of those contests.
• Buffalo has combined with its opponent to gone over the point total in 30.8% of its contests this year (four times in 13 games with a set point total).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Bills are 6-4, earning a win 60% of the time.
• Buffalo has a record of 6-3 in games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -142 or shorter (66.7%).
• The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Bills a 58.7% chance to win.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has 3,447 passing yards (seventh in the NFL), 25 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and 14 interceptions this year. He has completed 66.9% of his passes, averaging 265.2 yards per game and 7.3 per attempt.
• He has added 374 rushing yards (28.8 per game) and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
• Stefon Diggs' 993 receiving yards this season have come from 132 targets and 87 receptions (seventh in the NFL). He's averaging 76.4 receiving yards and 6.7 catches per game, with eight receiving touchdowns (fourth in the NFL).
• James Cook's output on the ground this season includes 789 yards (10th in the NFL) and one TD. He's averaging 60.7 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt (ninth in the NFL).
• Cook has been on the receiving end of 44 targets in the passing game and has 38 catches (2.9 per game) for 391 yards (30.1 per game) and three TDs.
• Gabriel Davis has 39 receptions for 595 yards and six touchdowns. He's been targeted 69 times in the air attack, and averages 3.3 receptions and 49.6 yards in 12 games played.

Defense

• On defense, Terrel Bernard has 112 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and three interceptions in 2023. His tackle total leads the Bills.
• Taron Johnson has 71 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one sack this season.
• Ed Oliver has put up 43 tackles, 11.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks this year.
• Rasul Douglas has 2.0 TFL, 52 tackles, and three interceptions on the season.

Dallas Betting Info

• Dallas have compiled a 9-4-0 record against the spread this year.
• The Cowboys have yet to cover the spread this year when underdogs by 2.5 points or more.
• Dallas games have gone over the total eight times this season.
• The Cowboys have lost both games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Dallas has not won as an underdog of +120 or more on the moneyline this season in two such games.
• The implied probability of a win by the Cowboys based on the moneyline is 45.5%.

Cowboys Stats

Dallas' Key Players

Offense

• Dak Prescott has thrown for 3,505 yards this year (to rank fourth in the NFL), with 28 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and six interceptions. He is completing 69.3% of his attempts while averaging 269.6 yards per game and 7.8 per attempt.
• On the ground, Prescott has added two rushing touchdowns and 185 rushing yards (third on the Cowboys).
• CeeDee Lamb has 96 catches (third in the NFL) for 1,253 yards (third in the NFL) and eight receiving touchdowns (fourth in the NFL). He has been targeted 131 times and averages 7.4 receptions per game through 13 games played.
• Tony Pollard is averaging 61.2 rushing yards per game this season (796 total yards to rank eighth in the NFL), while scoring five rushing touchdowns.
• In addition to his ground game, Pollard has pulled down 49 passes (on 58 targets) for 285 yards (fifth on the Cowboys). He averages 21.9 yards per game.
• Brandin Cooks has 534 receiving yards and five touchdowns from 39 receptions after getting 57 targets.

Defense

• Micah Parsons has 44 tackles, 14.0 TFL, 12.5 sacks, and two passes defended in 2023.
• Daron Bland's stat sheet includes eight interceptions (first in the NFL) as well as 59 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 14 passes defended.
• Damone Clark has 81 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and two passes defended during the 2023 campaign.
• Markquese Ball's stats include 69 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and three passes defended in 13 games