Bucs vs. Saints: Battle of two former No. 1 picks could come down to avoiding picks

There is still a remote chance that Saints quarterback Derek Carr could play Sunday against the Bucs, despite spraining the AC joint in his throwing shoulder in last week's loss to the Packers.

If he doesn't, the storyline likely to unfold in the Caesar's Superdome in New Orleans is about two quarterbacks with very similar backgrounds, trying to shake one bad reputation.

Baker Mayfield will start for the Bucs, and if Carr can't go as expected, Jameis Winston will start for the Saints.

Their teams are both 2-1 and coming off losses last weekend. Both quarterbacks are former No. 1 overall picks, college superstars who won the Heisman Trophy and came into the league with high expectations. Their NFL success has been limited by a penchant for interceptions, something they're both still trying to work on.

Since coming into the NFL in 2018, Mayfield has 65 interceptions, more than any other quarterback in the league, though he now has only one more than Bills star Josh Allen. Winston has the same dubious honor, as his 96 career interceptions are still the most for any quarterback since 2015, despite Winston starting only 10 games since the start of the 2020 season.

What's more, the two defenses they'll face Sunday are among the league's most active in picking off passes. The Bucs rank second with five interceptions in three games, and the Saints have four, putting both in the top six.

"It's their veteran leadership that they have on all levels, and their mentality defensively," Mayfield said Wednesday about the Saints. "Those guys, they are consistently physical. It doesn't matter who they're going up against, they're going to play extremely, extremely hard."

Winston has done a better job of limiting his interceptions since going to the Saints. In the past two years, he has thrown only six interceptions in 250 passes over nine games. But here's the catch: Three of them came in a span of six passes against the Bucs in New Orleans last year, leading to 17 points in the fourth quarter of a 20-10 win for Tampa Bay.

"The biggest thing was the turnovers," Bucs coach Todd Bowles said this week of last year's game in New Orleans. "That's what kind of decides games like that. ... We got some turnovers in the first one, and when they win the turnover battle, they usually win the ballgame. That'll be something to watch."

For both quarterbacks (like most), throwing one interception or less is crucial to having any chance to win. When throwing one pick or less, Mayfield is 30-26 in his career, Winston 28-25; when throwing two or more, Mayfield is 3-13, while Winston is 6-21.

Mayfield has never played an NFL game in New Orleans — he won a bowl game there with Oklahoma — but he helped Carolina to a win against the Saints last season, in part by not turning the ball over. Mayfield had modest passing numbers (12-for-25, 170 yards, one TD) but didn't have any turnovers, while Winston threw for 353 yards but was picked off twice in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

Winston came in cold last week, taking over for Carr after he was injured on a sack early in the third quarter. The Saints were up 17-0 when Carr left the game and punted on their first four possessions with Winston at quarterback, allowing the Packers to rally for an 18-17 lead. But Winston led the team into field-goal range for a go-ahead kick, only to have rookie Blake Grupe miss on a 46-yard attempt with 1:05 left.

Carr, speaking to the media on Wednesday, said the team has confidence in Winston's ability to step in as needed.

"Jameis is a starter in this league," Carr said. "We have a couple of guys who can start NFL football games in our room, and Jameis is another one of those guys. In practice, I take every rep, and he did a great job of stepping in with no reps and playing good football. In that role, when you're called upon, that's the expectation and I thought he did a great job for what he was asked to do."

Few defenses kept Tom Brady in check better than the Saints and Dennis Allen. Brady's only three-interception game with the Bucs came against the Saints in a 38-3 loss in 2020, and he threw two interceptions in regular-season losses at the Saints in 2020 and 2021. He was able to avoid interceptions in the 2020 playoffs and the Bucs handed Drew Brees the final loss of his career, picking him off three times along the way.

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Perhaps more so than any other NFC South rivalry, there's a nasty history between the two teams. Bucs receiver Mike Evans and Saints corner Marshon Lattimore have feuded enough that both were ejected from last year's game, and Evans has twice been suspended for after-the-play hits on Lattimore. Saints pass-rusher Cam Jordan has taken shots at the Bucs offensive line in recent years. Tampa tackle Tristan Wirfs joked this week that Mayfield will talk trash with defenders, so "he riles guys up and we have to go block them."

"I just don't know why I've got that strong dislike," Bucs defensive lineman Will Gholston said of his feelings for the Saints. "I have no idea. It's just in me. They don't like us, we don't like them. It's OK. It makes football fun when you have a rivalry like that."

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.