Bucs' success could lead to new deal for Baker Mayfield; what might that look like?

One more win, whether it's at home Sunday against the Saints or in the finale against the Panthers, will give the Bucs the NFC South division title for a third year in a row.

And given the uncertainty surrounding Tampa Bay entering this season, it should lock up an increasingly compelling case for Baker Mayfield to be re-signed as the Bucs' quarterback moving forward. That will be for substantially more than the $4 million, one-year deal he signed with Tampa Bay this spring, making him one of the league's bargain signings.

The former No. 1 overall pick, now 29, has reestablished himself as a starting NFL quarterback, guiding the Bucs to four straight wins after they stumbled to six losses in seven games in a midseason slump. Mayfield has already thrown for 26 touchdowns — one short of his career high — against only eight interceptions, arguably his best NFL season and perhaps the best ever for a Bucs quarterback not named Tom Brady.

"I feel really good about where I'm at, seeing the field," Mayfield said Wednesday. "I think just being in the system for a bit now and getting comfortable with it, that's what happens. Once you get comfortable in the system, you can truly grow and see the improvements, and I think that's where we're at right now."

While both sides have said real discussions will wait until after the season, there's a clear mutual desire to have Mayfield stick around beyond 2023. What might a Mayfield contract look like? The closest comp for a veteran quarterback and former first-round pick resetting himself as a solid starter might be Geno Smith, who did much the same with Seattle last year. Smith was three years older than Mayfield is now, and didn't have as much success as Mayfield had as a starter, but he had played on a one-year, $3.5 million contract before his breakout season, and was rewarded with a three-year, $75 million deal.

Others have suggested that Mayfield's value isn't as high. Pro Football Focus, in ranking the top 100 free agents available this year, had Mayfield 76th, curiously eight spots behind former Titans starter Ryan Tannehill, who is 35 and has two touchdowns against six interceptions in seven starts this season. PFF gave Mayfield a market value of two years, $30 million. In terms of pure free agents, Mayfield should be one of the best available if he gets to the open market, perhaps second behind Kirk Cousins, who is 35, coming off a major injury and could end up staying with the Vikings.

Like Smith a year ago, Mayfield will be a top candidate for the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award. Bills safety Damar Hamlin, who nearly died on the field during a game last year, has made an incredible comeback to return at all, but he's only played sparingly in five games, totaling two tackles. 

Mayfield was asked about the possibility of winning the award this week.

"It's humbling," he said. "It's an honor. It's kind of a big-picture mindset. If I take a step back and really look at it, of all the things that I've had to weather in the last year, it really speaks volumes to this place right here. To be able to come in and be myself, and be the best version of myself, they've allowed me to do that. That's been the best reason."

When Mayfield came to the Bucs, it was his fourth team in less than a year, having been traded from the Browns to the Panthers, going 1-5 as a starter and asking for his release, then going 1-3 with the Rams in a short stint as an injury replacement there.

He's found himself again in Tampa Bay, meshing well with new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, a first-time playcaller, and building a strong connection with Pro Bowl receiver Mike Evans. Evans now leads the NFL with 13 touchdown catches and could be the first receiver in team history to lead the league.

Mayfield chose the Bucs in free agency, liking the opportunity to reset his career and appreciating what he called the "organizational stability" built around coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht. If Tampa Bay can secure another divisonal title, both will be back, and they've had consistent praise for Mayfield, especially for how he's led the Bucs through their ups and downs.

"I just think that's who he is," Bowles said Wednesday of Mayfield's natural leadership. "That's the kind of guy he is. He doesn't have to put on a facade to go out there and be a leader. He does the things he normally does. He leads by example [and] sometimes he leads [vocally] and he talks it. He leads by actions as well — the type of guy he is, energized every day, motivated every day, focused every day. Everybody sees that."

Linebacker Devin White, a team captain like Mayfield, said the quarterback's emergence this year has matched the Bucs' exceeding the external expectations and doubt they faced entering the season.

"He's a guy who wants to win, and he's got something to prove," White said. "That's the mentality of this team. Coming into the season, nobody believed in us. We had something to prove, he had something to prove. … We started winning, proved that we could win, then we started losing. The ship sank from the outside, but it never sank from the inside. Then we started back winning and the ship got bigger and bigger.

"Baker won over the game by just being him. I always tell him, ‘Give me some more energy, give me some more energy,' because that's the type of person he is. That trickles down to everybody." 

Mayfield could have more lucrative offers from other teams, but it would be understandable if he put a premium on the continuity of staying in the same place, with the same team in surroundings where he's played some of his best football. He and his wife, Emily, are expecting their first child in April, and it makes sense that he would want to avoid the upheaval of moving to a new city and adjusting to a new life — again — while welcoming a child into the world.

In choosing the Bucs, Mayfield will also know that if he maxes out his financial opportunity, that could come at the expense of re-signing a key veteran like Evans, who is also a free agent and would be among the most coveted at any position after spending his entire 10-year career in Tampa. Safety Antoine Winfield, enjoying an All-Pro caliber season, is also an unrestricted free agent, and bringing him back as a cornerstone of the defense is also a high priority.

A month ago, when the Bucs were 4-7 and potentially picking in the top 10 in the draft, it made sense they might use their top pick on a quarterback, hoping to hit it big with a prospect like LSU's Jayden Daniels. But if they win the division, they'll pick no higher than 19th, when the top tier of prospects is gone and there's more risk involved in handing the franchise over to a rookie quarterback.

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After the 2020 season, when Mayfield led the Browns to their first playoff win in 26 years, he was in line for a huge extension, perhaps at $30 million a year or more, but Cleveland wound up writing a much larger check to Deshaun Watson, who is 8-4 in parts of two seasons as starter. It would be hard for the Bucs to afford Mayfield at that pay grade without sacrificing the supporting cast around him, but he might still seek the familiarity of Tampa Bay and what he's come to call home in the past year.

"Free agency allowed me to pick the organizational stability and knowing what it is here," Mayfield said. "That's what you look for when you have an opportunity to choose. You look for that, and then you do the best you can and make the most of it."

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.