Bucky's Breakdown: Patriots, Packers, Bengals rolling while Steelers, Titans, Eagles flailing

By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

It takes about half of the NFL season for coaches to determine what kind of team they have in front of them. 

Despite all the work throughout the offseason and training camp, the coaching staff does not know how to get the best out of every player and unit until it has enough games on tape to make adjustments to the master plan that will produce winning results on the field.

The process is not always pretty, but like award-winning scientists, the best coaches find ways to create a magic potion in the lab that enables a team to play at its best down the stretch.

Given some time to watch all the games over a holiday weekend, I have a better feel for which teams are coming together at the right time. Here are my thoughts and observations based on another interesting weekend in the NFL.

FIVE THINGS THAT LOOKED GOOD

1. Bill Belichick has the Patriots ballin’.

After a 1-3 start, the Patriots have reemerged as Super Bowl contenders with a rock-solid team that can whip opponents while playing old-school football.

Mac Jones is playing like a 10-year veteran directing an offense that looks eerily similar to the version that helped the franchise dominate in the early 2000s. The rookie carved up Tennessee on Sunday with pinpoint throws to shifty playmakers and big-bodied tight ends on a variety of quick-rhythm throws and play-action passes that exploited the weaknesses of the Titans' coverage.

With Jones managing the game and showing outstanding situational awareness, the Patriots have conducted a master class in quarterback development while rebuilding an offense that has the capacity to control the clock or produce explosive plays.

The Patriots’ veteran-laden defense continues to impress with its toughness, discipline and physicality. This unit can operate like a group of chameleons, capable of changing its playing style and tactics to force opponents to play left-handed (away from their strengths) in key moments. The combination of scheme, execution and fundamentals is impressive to watch, and it is one of the reasons the Patriots have become title contenders against the odds.

2. The Packers are hitting their stride.

The Packers sit behind the Cardinals in the NFC standings, but they are playing like the best team in football on both sides of the ball. While most of the NFL world has cast the Packers as a "one-man show" fueled by Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay has emerged as a team with the capacity to win utilizing multiple styles.

Sure, it helps to have a three-time MVP putting up a 300-yard game against a playoff contender, but the Packers can win with a physical running game sparked by a tandem that features a scatback (Aaron Jones) and a banger (AJ Dillon). Although the Packers failed to produce 100 rushing yards against the Rams, the threat of the run created opportunities for the offense to attack utilizing play-action passes on the perimeter.

Defensively, the Packers continue to excel at producing big plays and turnovers with a disciplined approach that enabled them to contain the Rams' high-powered offense. Despite allowing a few big plays (see: Odell Beckham Jr.'s and Van Jefferson's touchdowns), the Packers kept the ball in front of the defense for most of the day and beat up the Rams with their tough tackles on the perimeter.

Green Bay's performance falls short of earning an A in the grade book, but the solid play from the offense and defense bodes well for a team well-positioned to swipe the No. 1 seed down the road.

3. Are the Bengals the new bullies on the block?

The Bengals have been the laughingstock of the AFC North the past few years, but it appears that the joke is now on the rest of the division following the team’s sweep of the Steelers.

The young Bengals showed impressive maturity, discipline and focus as they battled toe-to-toe with a team known for its toughness and physicality. While the outcome was not a surprise based on the teams' previous meeting, it was how the Bengals beat up the Steelers from start to finish on each side of the ball in a 41-10 rout that will raise eyebrows around the league.

From Joe Mixon’s dominance on the ground (28 carries for 165 rushing yards and two scores) to Tee Higgins’ playmaking prowess on the perimeter (six catches for 114 yards and a touchdown), the Bengals overpowered the Steelers with a balanced attack that nearly put up 400 yards of offense.

On defense, the Bengals’ blue-collar workers beat up the Steelers at the line of scrimmage and harassed Ben Roethlisberger with their persistent effort. Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, in particular, were effective crushing the pocket, and their ability to win at the line keyed an impressive performance from the defense.

With the Bengals flexing their muscles on the Steelers and owning a 3-1 record within the division, it is time to pay attention to the emergence of this team as a legitimate threat in the AFC.

4. The 49ers have rediscovered their winning ways.

Perhaps Kyle Shanahan was experimenting with the 49ers’ formula as Coke tweaked its original recipe years ago, but it appears that the offensive wizard has rediscovered the winning blueprint by committing to the running game.

The 49ers’ creative but punishing ground game rolled up 200-plus yards against a Vikings defense that is typically stingy against the run. Elijah Mitchell spearheaded the effort with 133 rushing yards on 27 carries, and he was assisted by WR Deebo Samuel adding 66 yards on six carries. The diverse running game not only is difficult to defend but also challenges the opponent’s discipline and toughness.

Given how the 49ers’ recent opponents have tapped out after absorbing a barrage of body blows, the offense’s return to smash-mouth football could make this team a heavyweight contender down the stretch.

5. Patrick Surtain is special.

When the Broncos bypassed an opportunity to select a franchise quarterback in favor of a shutdown corner in the 2021 draft, there were plenty of critics who took the team to task. While Denver will eventually need to find a long-term solution at quarterback, Patrick Surtain has been as good as advertised as a rookie starter with an All-Pro game.

I know it's too soon to tout the Alabama product as an all-timer based on 11 games, but the 6-foot-2, 202-pound corner is a technician with playmaking skills that are hard to find.

Against the Chargers, Surtain showed the football world how he could dominate the game on the island with his superior ball skills and exceptional coverage ability. He is rarely out of position in coverage, and his ability to make plays separates him from other DBs. 

On Sunday, Surtain came up with a pair of interceptions that enabled the Broncos to steal a win from a division rival.

Considering the impact of turnovers on the bottom line, it is difficult to say the Broncos made the wrong decision when they opted for a shutdown corner over the quarterback a few months ago.

FIVE THINGS THAT LOOKED BAD

1. Super Cam meets his kryptonite.

The feel-good story of the superhero returning home took a turn for the worse when Cam Newton met the Dolphins and their complex blitz concepts and coverage. The combination of pressure and bluffs disrupted Newton’s rhythm and forced him into a lackluster performance that resulted in the former MVP getting benched in the fourth quarter.

While Carolina's 33-10 loss is not completely on Newton, it is difficult to overcome a quarterback completing just five of 21 passes for 92 yards with a pair of interceptions. The turnovers on back-to-back possessions killed the Panthers' momentum and eventually put them behind the eight-ball for the remainder of the game.

With Newton benched after the disappointing effort, the Panthers suddenly have more questions at quarterback. The franchise icon has failed to give the team the long-term spark it was hoping for when he rejoined the squad a few weeks ago.

2. The Titans lack star power.

It is tough to win games when you have the best players in the lineup, but it is nearly impossible to win with most of your stars on the sideline. Mike Vrabel is learning that with the Titans’ offense sputtering without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and AJ Brown.

The trio provided Ryan Tannehill with enough firepower to attack a defense in a variety of ways while operating within a ball-control approach that enabled the offense to dial up or scale back the aggressiveness based on the opponent. 

Without the three former Pro Bowlers on the field, though, not only is the Titans’ offense pedestrian, but also Tannehill looks nothing like the all-star-caliber playmaker who has played like a top-five quarterback since joining the squad.

Against the Patriots, the Titans tallied 355 scrimmage yards but were held to 13 points for the second straight week. Tannehill continued to struggle, with fewer than 100 pass yards and a number of misfires that should raise concerns about the offense’s long-term potential without their best playmakers on the field.

For a team that was sitting pretty as a No. 1 seed a few weeks ago, the loss of three offensive stars has made it challenging for the Titans to compete, despite a bruising style that could make them a tough out in the postseason.

3. The Colts hand out an early holiday gift.

Frank Reich will have a tough time sleeping after watching his team give away a game to the defending champs. That is not a dismissal of the Buccaneers’ effort in their 38-31 win, but the Colts had five giveaways, including four second-half turnovers that undermined an otherwise strong performance.

Carson Wentz will certainly shoulder some of the blame for the Colts’ collapse, with a pair of interceptions and a fumble on the stat sheet. The veteran was careless with the rock, and his costly turnovers helped turn a 10-point Colts lead into a second-half deficit that forced the team to scrap its original game plan.

With the Buccaneers also turning a Nyheim Hines’ muffed punt into a field goal, the Colts’ ball security problems helped Tom Brady & Co. steal a win on the road.

4. Jalen Hurts has a bad day at the office.

After being the toast of the town for the past month, the Eagles' QB will wear goat horns for a week following his turnover fest against the Giants.

The second-year pro finished with three interceptions while completing just 14 of 31 passes with 129 yards for a 17.5 passer rating. The costly mistakes kept the Eagles from seizing control of a game that was theirs for the taking, particularly with the running game rolling against the Giants.

With two of Hurts’ picks inside the red zone, the miscues cost the Eagles points and kept the offense from building momentum. While Hurts deserves credit for sparking the running game with his flawless execution of read-option plays and designed quarterback runs, the Eagles needed their QB1 to take better care of the ball to win a game that was chalked up as a lock heading into the weekend.

5. The Browns’ offense lacks juice.

Perhaps Cleveland's offensive woes were not solely on OBJ and his freestyle game. It appears that the offense is broken after it failed to score more than 13 points for the fourth time in the past five games.

While injuries played a role in the weeks leading up to the Ravens game, the Browns' disappointing performance in an AFC North battle cannot be attributed to a short-handed lineup. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were in the backfield, and Jarvis Landry was on the perimeter. That's more than enough firepower to put points on the board. Something is off with the unit.

From Baker Mayfield’s inconsistent play due to injuries or flawed execution to the lack of big plays on the ground or through the air, the Browns are having to work too hard to manufacture points against contenders and pretenders. 

With the bye week providing Kevin Stefanski time to assess his team and analyze his game plans, Cleveland's offense needs an overhaul for this team to make a run at a playoff berth.

MY TOP 10 TEAMS

1. Cardinals: Credit the Cardinals for stretching their lead in the NFC West with a couple of their best players (Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins) on the sideline. If Kliff Kingsbury can keep it going without his stars, imagine how good this team could be down the stretch with the A-team in the lineup.

2. Packers: Despite the perception of being a "one-man show," the Packers might be the most complete team in the league, with a rock-solid offense and opportunistic defense rounding into form. With the return of a few blue-chip veterans on the horizon, the Packers could be a tough out in the playoffs.

3. Patriots: It is not always pretty when the Patriots chalk up a win, but Bill Belichick & Co. don't care about style points. The six-time Super Bowl champ has mastered the art of winning ugly, as evidenced by a six-game victory streak that has catapulted New England back into the mix as a possible No. 1 seed.

4. Ravens: A win is a win in Baltimore, but the Ravens’ ability to generate W's without bringing their A-game speaks volumes about the team’s toughness and resilience as a playoff contender.

5. Chiefs: Andy Reid has his team sitting at the top of the AFC West, despite playing some ugly football at the beginning of the season. With the defense playing well and Patrick Mahomes & Co. taking better care of the football, the Chiefs are quietly reemerging as title contenders in the AFC.

6. Bills: Sean McDermott never knows which version of his team will show up each week, but the Bills remain a threat to win it all if they play their best when it counts.

7. Buccaneers: The Bucs have not hit their stride, but they continue to stack wins against quality competition. If Tom Brady can get his squad to turn it up a notch over the next few weeks, the Buccaneers could be well-positioned to make back-to-back Super Bowl runs.

8. Bengals: After hitting the bullies in the mouth, the Bengals deserve recognition as a top-10 team with the talent, toughness and tenacity to wrestle the AFC North away from the brand names.

9. Titans: Mike Vrabel’s team is in a bit of a free fall following the loss of some key offensive playmakers. With the team lacking star power for the next few weeks, the Titans could fall out of contention.

10. Cowboys: The Turkey Day stinker has led to questions about Dallas' legitimacy as a Super Bowl contender. Although injuries have certainly played a role in the team’s disappointing performance, the Cowboys’ inconsistency makes it tough to predict if they will realize their potential.

WEEK 12 GAME BALLS

MVP of the Week: Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers

"Playoff Lenny" made a regular-season appearance during the Buccaneers’ 38-31 victory in Indy. Fournette notched a 100-yard game with three touchdowns as the offense’s No. 1 option. He added 31 receiving yards and another score to help the Bucs win a game in which they leaned on the ground game instead of their high-octane aerial attack.

Offensive Player of the Week: Joe Mixon, Bengals

Cincinnati's rout of the Steelers was fueled by a strong effort from Mixon that enabled the Bengals to control the action from the start. The fifth-year pro rushed for 165 yards and two scores on 28 carries while exhibiting the hard-nosed running style that has given the offense a blue-collar feel. Mixon’s ability to find cracks between the tackles while flashing enough speed to turn the corner exploited a Pittsburgh defense that was unable to deal with his quickness and physicality.

Defensive Player of the Week: Patrick Surtain II, Broncos

The talented corner is vying for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors, but he will settle for my weekly award after blanketing the Chargers’ receivers like an All-Pro. Surtain was targeted eight times and responded with two interceptions, including a pick-six, while allowing only three catches for 25 yards, per PFF. The air-tight coverage enabled the Broncos to harass Chargers QB Justin Herbert into a disappointing game that will raise eyebrows around the league.

Rookie of the Week: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins

It is not a coincidence that the Dolphins have shown more pop in recent weeks with Waddle’s role expanding as one of the top options in the passing game. The rookie receiver tore the Panthers apart with a nine-catch, 137-yard performance and a score that showcased his big-play ability. Waddle’s speed, stop-start quickness and open-field running skills make him a tough matchup on the perimeter. And the Dolphins are not afraid to put the ball in his hands in key moments.

Unsung Hero of the Week: Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons

The Falcons’ Swiss Army knife was a one-man gang against the Jaguars, with a 100-yard effort (16 carries, 108 yards) and two scores. Patterson energized Atlanta's offense with his versatility and playmaking ability. The performance was not splashy, but it was enough to help the Falcons get a win and remain in the thick of the NFC playoff race.

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and regularly appears on "Speak For Yourself." He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and is a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast.