Bucky's Breakdown: Bills, Dolphins shine; Cards, Bucs suffer stunning defeats

By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The playoff races are heating up down the stretch, with teams pulling out all the stops to get wins to stay in the hunt.

The desperation from pretenders and contenders has not only led to surprising results but also fueled some epic debates over playcalls, analytics and execution.

With a little time to review the tape and examine the box scores, here are my thoughts and observations on Week 15.

FIVE THINGS THAT LOOKED GOOD

1. Josh Allen unleashed

The Bills needed their MVP to play like an MVP, and Josh Allen stepped up his game accordingly. The fourth-year QB was a one-man show against the Panthers, with a three-touchdown effort that showcased his talents as a dual-threat playmaker.

While Allen's numbers weren't exceptional (19-of-34 for 210 yards, three TDs), the impact he had on the game will encourage Sean McDermott to put more on No. 17’s plate with the playoff races heating up. Last week, I wrote about how the Bills needed to unleash Allen to salvage their playoff hopes. McDermott apparently agreed with my assessment, based on how Buffalo freed the QB to be a dynamic playmaker in the fourth quarter.

With Allen moving and shaking on the perimeter, the Bills used the threat of the quarterback run to help Devin Singletary find more room to run between the tackles. The combination of a traditional runner and a dynamic dual-threat QB executing a variety of zone-read concepts helped the Bills find enough of a running game to keep the Panthers’ defense on its heels.

As Allen continues to excel as a streaky passer with exceptional arm talent, the Bills have the potential to explode at any point. Opponents should pay close attention to Allen's talents as the pressure mounts on the Bills to do whatever it takes to secure a playoff spot.

2. Duke Johnson and Myles Gaskin create the Miami Pound Machine

Perhaps Brian Flores found some of Don Shula’s old tapes from the Dolphins’ early 1970s, run-oriented squads while game-planning this week. That’s the only way to explain the dominant effort by Miami running backs Duke Johnson and Myles Gaskins.

Although Johnson and Gaskins will not remind old-school Dolphins fans of Larry Csonka, Mercury Morris or Jim Kiick, the duo could enable Flores to utilize a throwback game plan to dispatch opponents down the stretch. Johnson rushed for 107 yards on 22 carries with a pair of scores after being elevated from the practice squad. The veteran gave the Dolphins a bit of flash and dash on inside runs while giving Tua Tagovailoa a quality option as a checkdown.

Gaskins stepped up as a rotational player with 54 rush yards on 10 carries. Although the numbers do not jump off the stat sheet, it is the steady drip from a couple of runners that enabled the Dolphins to dominate the Jets. The ground-and-pound approach makes Miami more difficult to defend with Tagovailoa thriving in an RPO-centric offense.

It is not exactly how Shula would envision a ground-based attack, but the new-school version of the Miami Pound Machine could become a key component to the Dolphins’ rebuilding efforts.

3. Dan Quinn has put the D in Dallas

It is time for the football world to look at the Cowboys as a defense-led squad. Despite a flashy offense that once ranked as the No. 1 unit in the game, the Cowboys are winning games due to the work of Dan Quinn’s troops this season.

The Cowboys are tied for the league lead in takeaways (31), with an NFL-high 23 interceptions in 14 games. The sticky-fingered bandits have excelled at snagging tipped and overthrown balls from quarterbacks facing constant harassment within the pocket. The pressure from Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory not only quickens the quarterback’s internal clock but also forces passers into poor decisions as they attempt to avoid big hits.

Against the Giants, the Cowboys forced four turnovers, with Lawrence poking the ball out of Saquon Barkley’s arms and three defensive backs (Trevon Diggs, Jourdan Lewis and Malik Hooker) registering interceptions. The Cowboys now have a plus-12 turnover margin, second-best in the NFL.

Considering how he has emphasized the importance of takeaways and created practice plans that feature an assortment of turnover drills, Quinn deserves credit for getting his young defense to buy in to his philosophy in Year 1 of his tenure.

4. Davis Mills: Texans’ QB1?

Perhaps Houston coach David Culley and GM Nick Cesario are on to something with the elevation of Davis Mills to the QB1 spot. The rookie continues to impress, with a 65.8% completion rate, 540 pass yards and a 4:1 TD-INT ratio since being named the starter for the rest of the season.

The two-game audition (and counting) has showcased a polished pocket-passer with outstanding arm talent, timing and anticipation. Mills is capable of painting by numbers while flashing enough improvisational skills to operate off-script when the pocket breaks down.

Against the Jaguars, Mills did not put up big numbers (19 of 30 passes for 209 yards with two touchdowns and an interception), but he distributed the rock like a pass-first point guard running the fast break. From firing an assortment of quick passes and bubble screens to carving up the Jaguars with a variety of intermediate, timing-based throws, the rookie looked like a veteran tossing the ball around the perimeter.

While it's a small sample, it is possible that Mills has flashed enough potential to encourage the Texans to give him another year to fill the QB1 role and direct their efforts toward building the rest of the roster. It is a little premature to discuss the Texans’ draft plans, but Mills’ solid play could take quarterback off the team's wish list this offseason.

5. The Colts are creeping back into contention

Don't look now, but Frank Reich has built a squad that is perfectly constructed for the playoffs. Postseason football requires teams to play stout defense and utilize the running game to control the tempo in win-or-go-home contests.

The Colts have the best running back in football spitting out 100-yard games like an ATM. Jonathan Taylor leads the league with 1,518 rush yards on the strength of eight 100-yard games in 14 starts. The Colts are unbeaten when Taylor tops the century mark (8-0), including the team’s 27-17 win over the Patriots on Saturday, in which No. 28 rushed for 170 yards on 29 carries.

Taylor's dominant performance enabled the Colts to overcome Carson Wentz’s meager production (5-of-12 for 57 yards with a touchdown and an interception). While it is uncommon for teams to win without contributions from the passing game, the presence of a dominant runner steadied the Colts’ offense in a big game.

The team's opportunistic defense leads the league in takeaways (31) and turnover differential (plus-14) while exhibiting a hustle-hard mentality and ball-hawking prowess that separate the unit. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus’ squad plays with reckless abandon, producing turnovers at an alarming rate.

Considering how turnovers often determine the outcome of games, the ball-hawking defense gives the Colts a chance to emerge as dark-horse contenders when the game changes in January.

FIVE THINGS THAT LOOKED BAD

1. Tom Brady & Co. get shut out

While it's rare for the seven-time Super Bowl champion to even take an L, Tom Brady never gets shut out. But evidently, the Saints did not get the memo, based on their outstanding performance against the Buccaneers in a 9-0 victory.

The Saints challenged Brady with a combination of man coverage complemented by a standard four-man rush that featured a few twists and stunts. The stifling coverage eliminated free access for the Buccaneers’ receivers and forced Brady to make tight-window throws to register completions. The aggressive coverage stifled the Bucs’ receivers for most of the game, particularly after Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were sidelined with injuries.

Without his Pro Bowl wideouts, Brady attempted to make Rob Gronkowski the centerpiece of the passing game, but the Saints were all over him, with multiple defenders on every play in the second half. The extra attention resulted in Gronkowski registering just two catches for 29 yards, despite getting 11 targets.

Although there was not anything tricky or exotic about the Saints’ game plan, the flawless execution could serve as a blueprint to defend TB12 and the defending champions going forward.

2. The Titans are fading fast

The Titans still sit atop the AFC South, but Mike Vrabel’s team is falling like a rock down the charts. The loss of key personnel, particularly on offense, has disrupted the continuity, chemistry and rhythm of a squad that once looked like the best team in football.

Without Derrick Henry or A.J. Brown and with a gimpy Julio Jones, the Titans’ offense lacks explosiveness and big-play potential. Moreover, the absence of playmakers around Ryan Tannehill has disrupted the veteran quarterback’s play.

Against the Steelers, No. 17 completed 23 of 32 passes for 153 yards with an interception. He was sacked four times and lost a fumble. With the Titans committing two additional turnovers to push their total to four on the day, the AFC South leaders gave away a game in which they were in control in the first half.

Considering that the Titans have lost three of their past four games and failed to score more than 13 points in any of those losses, the sputtering offense has certainly contributed to the team’s recent slide.

3. Are the Cardinals imposters?

The Cardinals have looked like title contenders for most of the season, but I am beginning to wonder if Kliff Kingsbury’s squad has the goods to make a run, based on its recent play. After dropping a tough one last Monday to a division rival, the Cardinals suffered a beatdown at the hands of a one-win team.

Sure, the Lions have played hard and are a scrappy bunch under Dan Campbell, but elite teams take care of business on the road and do not let complacency lead to bad losses against overmatched opponents. From the lackluster performance by an offense with 40-point capability to a sloppy game from a defense that has played at an A-plus level for most of the season, the Cardinals did not look like title contenders against a team that was outclassed on paper.

4. The Ravens live by the sword and die by the sword

Credit John Harbaugh for sticking to his convictions. The Ravens’ head coach is at the forefront of the analytical movement that is seemingly taking over the league, and he is willing to stand by his controversial decisions.

After watching his Ravens drop their third straight game, including two decided by failed two-point conversion attempts, Harbaugh has stood firm as the media questioned his decisions. Despite losing those three games by a combined four points, the ultra-aggressive leader continues to bypass field-goal attempts and PATs for fourth-down gambles and two-point chances. 

Although the Ravens have not yet been subject to intense criticism for their head coach’s risky calls, the noise will reach a fever pitch if this team fails to reach the playoffs.

5. The kicker-less Panthers struggle with a new game plan

Kickers are frequently treated as second-class citizens, but coaches gain greater appreciation for their key role players when they do not have them at their disposal. Just ask Matt Rhule.

The Panthers’ head coach had to adjust his game plan following a pregame injury to Zane Gonzalez that left the team without a kicker capable of booting PATs and short-range field goals.

While the loss of a vital part of the kicking game did not seem like a major loss on the surface, it completely altered how the Panthers approached the game against the Bills. From opting for two-point conversions after scores to bypassing red-zone field-goal attempts to an increase in fourth-down attempts, the game plan was certainly impacted by Gonzalez’s absence.

For a team in desperate need of a win, the Panthers have a greater appreciation of their kicker after playing without him on the road.

MY TOP 10 TEAMS

1. Packers: If the Packers continue to rack up wins without playing their best football, the sky is the limit for Matt LaFleur’s squad heading into the playoffs.

2. Chiefs: The Chiefs have not hit their stride on offense, but Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has held it down for the team during a seven-game winning streak. With Patrick Mahomes showing signs of regaining his all-star form, the Chiefs are on track to land the No. 1 seed and make another run at a Super Bowl.

3. Cowboys: The transformation of the Cowboys into a defensive-oriented team could make the NFC East leaders formidable opponents in the playoffs. If Dak Prescott & Co. can fix their woes on offense, this is the team that could represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVI.

4. Buccaneers: A shutout loss to the Saints kept the Buccaneers from winning the division and staying on track as a potential No. 1 seed. With injuries piling up on the perimeter (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette), the Bucs could lose ground.

5. Patriots: Bill Belichick’s squad dropped a game with uncharacteristic mistakes that revealed the team’s slim margin for error. If Mac Jones & Co. do not bring their A-game each week, they could be one-and-done in January.

6. Cardinals: A two-game losing streak has exposed the Cardinals’ flaws as title contenders. The inconsistent execution and questionable focus have led to a series of disappointing losses that could cost the team a top seed and the division crown.

7. Rams: The all-star lineup is starting to come together as the Rams hit the stretch run.

8. Titans: The AFC South leaders are fading fast due to injuries, turnovers and poor execution. Mike Vrabel has pulled out all the stops to fix the issues, but the team’s recent slide has opened the door for division rivals to swipe the crown at the end of the season.

9. Chargers: Brandon Staley’s ultra-aggressive decisions have been met with criticism, but they have put the team’s fate in the hands of a superstar quarterback with a dynamic game. In a quarterback-driven league, the Chargers’ head coach is willing to ride or die on the playmaking of Justin Herbert.

10. Colts: Jonathan Taylor and an opportunistic defense have propelled the Colts back into playoff contention. With Frank Reich willing to play to the strength of a team built for playoff football, the Colts could emerge as the biggest headache for AFC opponents down the stretch.

WEEK 15 GAME BALLS

MVP of the Week: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Against the Ravens, Aaron Rodgers delivered a three-touchdown performance that showcased his efficiency and football intelligence against a complex defense. The three-time MVP repeatedly found open receivers while facing a combination of pressure and coverage that befuddles most quarterbacks. While we have grown accustomed to seeing Rodgers do this to opponents, the brilliance from the veteran QB warrants applause from the football world.

Offensive Player of the Week: Jonathan Taylor, Colts

If you did not view Taylor as a superstar prior to this weekend, the second-year pro should earn all-star status after torching Bill Belichick with a 170-yard effort. Taylor showcased his skills with a rare combination of speed, power and explosiveness. The NFL’s leading rusher added two scores and sealed the game with an explosive run that highlighted his underrated wiggle and burst as a big back.

Defensive Player of the Week: Cam Jordan, Saints

Jordan is considered an all-time great in New Orleans due to his ability to take over the game with his pass-rushing prowess. He issued the football world a reminder with a two-sack effort against the Buccaneers that keyed the Saints’ 9-0 shutout win. The All-Pro edge defender whipped Tristan Wirfs for four quarters with an assortment of power and finesse moves that completely destroyed the timing of the Buccaneers’ passing game. Moreover, No. 94 bruised and battered Tom Brady in the pocket while forcing the seven-time Super Bowl winner into a disappointing performance that will raise eyebrows around the league.

Unsung Hero of the Week: Craig Reynolds, Lions

It has been proven time and time again that NFL teams can find quality running backs on the scrap heap. The Lions provided the latest example, with Craig Reynolds rushing for 112 yards on 26 carries, enabling Detroit to pull off a huge upset over the Cardinals. The third-year pro’s rock-solid performance featured a handful of "dirty" runs that showcased his superior size and strength. 

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and regularly appears on "Speak For Yourself." He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and is a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast.