Buccaneers return, 49ers ascend in Colin's 'Herd Hierarchy'

The 2022 NFL season has seen several presumed contenders go through severe ups and downs. 

Are the Philadelphia Eagles back on track? Have the Buffalo Bills rebounded? What's the fallout from the Dallas Cowboys blowing out the Minnesota Vikings?

Colin Cowherd, host of "The Herd," unveiled his "Herd Hierarchy" heading into Week 12 on Tuesday. Here's his latest list, with insights from FOX Bet.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last week: unranked)

Overall record: 5-5 | Last week: Bye (won 21-16 vs. Seattle Seahawks in Week 10)

Colin's thoughts: "I think they've found a run game — 161 yards rushing against the Seahawks. Now, they don't get big plays — 48 big plays all year, second-worst in the league. So, you're not looking at the Chiefs or the Bills here. But there is a way to play in the NFC and win games. Aaron Rodgers [is] not going to make the playoffs. It's going to be Brady. They've got back-to-back wins. They've found a run game. They're getting a little healthier. They're 11-2 after their bye week since Brady joined the team, so I think they're getting better and they've found themselves."

Championship odds: +1600

Up next: Buccaneers @ Browns (1:00 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

9. Minnesota Vikings (Last week: 4)

Overall record: 8-2 | Last week: Vikings lost 40-3 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Colin's thoughts: "I've been high on the Vikings, but I've also bet against 'em for three straight weeks. Twenty-ninth ranked total defense. Only losses have been against Dallas and Philadelphia, and those teams are a combined 16-4, so they're losing to the right teams. But I think everybody saw this coming. They are winning a lot of close games. There are limitations at quarterback."

Championship odds: +1600

Up next: Patriots @ Vikings (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC)

8. Dallas Cowboys (Last week: 9)

Overall record: 7-3 | Last week: Cowboys won 40-3 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Colin's thoughts: "It's a nice win. It was predictable. Since Dak returned, he's been giving you 100-plus passer ratings. There's a lot to like. They have now a two-headed monster at running back. Very productive, and their tight end is healthy. They have a legit No. 1 [wide receiver] in CeeDee Lamb and a great pass rusher in Micah Parsons. I still believe that Dak and the head coach in big spots can be liabilities."

Championship odds: +1000

Up next: Giants @ Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET Thursday, FOX)

7. Tennessee Titans (Last week: 10)

Overall record: 7-3 | Last week: Titans won 27-17 vs. Green Bay Packers

Colin's thoughts: "I think the Titans could be the best-coached team in the league not called the Chiefs. Seventh win in their last eight games. The fact they took the Chiefs to overtime without a second-half first down is just remarkable. They've missed 160 player games due to injury. Second-most in the league. So they're not even healthy. They're 8-2 against the spread. What does that tell you? They are totally undervalued as a team. They are tough. They're physical. They're the type of team that could go to Arrowhead and you look up and go, ‘Wait a minute, why's Mahomes watching the second half?' I wouldn't want to play 'em. They're always playing with house money. They never get respect. They're 7-3."

Championship odds: +2500

Up next: Bengals @ Titans (1:00 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

6. Philadelphia Eagles (Last week: 2)

Overall record: 9-1 | Last week: Eagles won 17-16 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Colin's thoughts: "They've held opponents under 20 points in five of their last six games. They've got a little bit of an interior D-line issue. And I do think when you face 'em the second time, you see 'em as the season progresses, there are some solutions to this offense. And the real issue is they're not talented enough to give the ball away and win. The Chiefs are — Philadelphia's not. They've had six giveaways over the last two games. They had only three in their first eight games, so they were playing incredibly clean football."

Championship odds: +550

Up next: Packers @ Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

5. Miami Dolphins (Last week: 6)

Overall record: 7-3 | Last week: Bye (won 39-17 vs. Cleveland Browns in Week 10)

Colin's thoughts: "They're 14-1 in the last 15 games Tua has finished, so they're productive. They've got a smart coach. They don't make mistakes. Eighteen touchdowns, three picks — they don't make mistakes. Now their defense, it's pretty average. This is a flashy, fun, explosive team, but I trust the Bills defense to make big plays. I trust Cincinnati's wildly underrated defense in the AFC playoffs to make plays or Baltimore's or Kansas City's front-seven. I don't trust this defense."

Championship odds: +1600

Up next: Texans @ Dolphins (1:00 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

4. Buffalo Bills (Last week: 7)

Overall record: 7-3 | Last week: Bills won 31-23 vs. Cleveland Browns

Colin's thoughts: "Here's the good news: The last couple of weeks they've found a run game. Here's the bad news: Now their defense has leaks. They're a team that doesn't have a ton of nuance. They have to win by knockout. They don't jab or move well, but I think they recognize their issues, and they have found a running game in the last couple of weeks. Now you're seeing some leaks on that defense. They're dangerous, they're explosive, they look like [what] Super Bowl participants look like. They just got to clean up some stuff."

Championship odds: +350

Up next: Bills @ Lions (12:30 p.m. ET Thursday, CBS)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (Last week: 5)

Overall record: 6-4 | Last week: Bengals won 37-30 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Colin's thoughts: "I think the most underrated team in the league is Cincinnati. So they lose their star receiver — top-five receiver in the league. They lose their star running back — top-five or six running back in the league. And they've had 400-plus total yards in three of their last four games. This team is deep, a reservoir of talent. [Joe] Burrow is unbelievable. And their defense, you just can't name any of their starters. I don't love their corners, but it's a real defense that shut Pittsburgh down and has shut multiple teams down in the second half. Joe Mixon will come back, he's battling a concussion. Ja'Marr Chase coming back. When you can lose your top two stars and put up almost 40 points, that's something. And Burrow remains, like Mahomes, a great quarterback trailing on the road. I wouldn't want to play this team in the playoffs. They're never out of a game."

Championship odds: +2000

Up next: Bengals @ Titans (1:00 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

2. San Francisco 49ers (Last week: 3)

Overall record: 6-4 | Last week: 49ers won 38-10 vs. Arizona Cardinals

Colin's thoughts: "They're finally healthy, Pro-Bowlers in every unit. Now, 63% of Garoppolo's passing yards come after the catch. They don't throw the ball deep. They don't throw it up the sidelines. It's death by a 1,000 cuts, so there's a way they win. But they're 4-0 against their division, each win by 15-plus points. They have — in my opinion — separated much like the Chiefs from their division."

Championship odds: +650

Up next: Saints @ 49ers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

1. Kansas City Chiefs (Last week: 1)

Overall record: 8-2 | Last week: Chiefs won 30-27 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Colin's thoughts: "They're not only the best team that can overcome mistakes, play with a lead, play on the road, play from behind, but they're a really smart team. They figure problems out. What does a team do on third down? What does a team do in the red zone? Andy Reid piles a lot on this team offensively. Mahomes is just intellectually twitchy and nimble enough. New player, new scheme, new plays, on the road, trailing, leading — they're a true champion. If you beat ‘em, you have to knock ’em out because if it goes to later rounds, and you don't finish 'em off, they'll finish you off if there's only 13 seconds on the clock."

Championship odds: +450

Up next: Rams @ Chiefs (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)