Books 'need Dallas big time' in Cowboys-Eagles showdown
Does anybody want to bet the Dallas Cowboys?
It’s a valid question heading into Sunday’s matchup between the Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles at "Jerry World." The Eagles were 2.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line, but the number re-opened at -6.5 on Sunday night after Dak Prescott suffered an injury to his right hamstring.
Philadelphia is currently as high as -7.5 in the market, with a total of 43, and that’s because Prescott isn’t the only Cowboy who’s banged up.
He’ll join defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence in street clothes for Sunday’s game, while CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) and Trevon Diggs (calf) were limited at Wednesday’s practice, and DaRon Bland (foot), Zack Martin (shoulder) and Eric Kendricks (shoulder) did not participate at all.
Yikes.
The only positive news is that defensive star Micah Parsons (ankle) is trending toward playing after missing four straight games. However, that news alone is not enough to stop the financial avalanche on the Eagles out in Las Vegas.
"Oh man, we’ll need Dallas big time," Golden Nugget executive sportsbook director Tony Miller told FOX Sports. "We’re already at Philly -7.5, and it’s only the middle of the week. We’re still days away. It might get to -8 or -8.5. We’ll definitely be rooting for Dallas to hang inside the number."
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Miller, a lifelong Cowboys fan, is too familiar with the team’s shortcomings. And not only is Dallas fading fast with a 3-5 straight-up (SU) record, it is worse against the spread (ATS) at 2-6.
Remember: good teams win, great teams cover.
"Coming into the season, they were knocking on the door to be a top-five team in my power ratings," he admitted. "Now they’re bottom-five. I got excited after they blasted Cleveland in Week 1, but it’s been a free fall ever since."
Speaking of free fall, can we talk about the Dallas defense?
According to the analytically-driven website Sumer Sports, the Cowboys were a top-five defense last season. This year, they rank No. 30 out of 32.
"You can point to the injuries, but it’s more than that," Miller said.
"Their youngster up front Mazi Smith has been a non-factor. He’s been one of the worst interior D linemen in the NFL. And with Lawrence and Parsons out for the last month or so, they’ve been getting blown off the ball.
"That didn’t happen under [former defensive coordinator] Dan Quinn last year. I’m not exactly sure what the hell Mike Zimmer is doing with this group. Then you see what Quinn’s doing with Washington. I said earlier this week on local sports radio that Quinn should be the Coach of the Year to this point.
"Dallas doesn't have any answers."
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Another popular conversation in the betting space revolves around starting quarterbacks and their value to the point spread. No situation is created equally because the gap is only as big as the backup is bad.
Cooper Rush will start under center and while he’s certainly serviceable, the offense wasn’t exactly moving mountains over the last two months.
"It’s not just Dak," Miller said. "They can’t run the ball and now Lamb is hurt. Even if he plays, he’s nowhere near 100 percent. It’s just a mess right now. It’s not like you’re dropping a backup quarterback into an offense that’s humming. You’re dropping him into a circus act.
"What’s crazy to me is they gave up a fourth-round pick to get Trey Lance, and he’s just sitting on the bench. He hasn’t played a game for the Cowboys. Put him in for crying out loud, see what you’ve got. What is there to lose?"
Miller’s mounting frustration this NFL season is compounded by the betting favorites seemingly covering at will over the last five weeks. The public dominated sportsbooks throughout October, then favorites went 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS in the first weekend of November.
"I always tell my bosses, look, it’ll happen once or twice a season," Miller said. "It’s happened in three of the last four weeks! The favorites are winning all day Sunday, Sunday night and Monday night. We’re paying out nine and 10-team moneyline parlays like you wouldn’t believe.
"Good for the public."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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