Bookmakers talk NFL win total betting action: 'A lot of Under action on Dallas'
Bill Belichick has left the building, and with his exit, oddsmakers are taking a dim view of the Patriots when it comes to 2024 NFL season win totals following a dismal 2023 season for New England.
In fact, at multiple sportsbooks, the Pats have the lowest win total – 4.5 or 5, depending on where you shop. But guess what? Bettors are still taking the Under.
"I think the perception is that maybe the Patriots don’t want to win this year," said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook. "New England is in a very good division. The other three teams, in their minds, think they can get to the Super Bowl."
Murray and SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson dive into NFL regular-season win totals, with insights on three teams taking Under action and three teams getting bet to the Over.
Let's dive into the fun!
Regular Season Win Totals: Under
New England is coming off a 4-13 campaign, which was tied with Arizona and Washington for the second-worst record in the league. Only Carolina was worse, at 2-15.
The Patriots followed by taking quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Maye could end up the starter, though he’s still behind veteran Jacoby Brissett on the depth chart for the time being.
Even if Maye starts, he’s still a rookie QB on a team with a slim supporting cast. That’s why The SuperBook opened New England’s season win total at 5, with the Over/Under both priced at -110. Which means it would take a $110 bet on either side to profit $100 ($210 total payout).
Now, Under is a -150 favorite, with Over at +130.
"They’re betting Under 5, at -110 and -135," Murray said, noting sharp bettors are among those expecting less than five wins for New England. "There’s a lot of Under money to the Patriots."
Everyone has an opinion on Dallas. The Cowboys are among the most popular teams annually with the public betting masses.
However, Dallas’ 2023-24 campaign ended with a huge thud. After a 12-5 SU (straight up) regular season (10-7 against the spread), the Cowboys got humbled at home by Green Bay in a double-digit wild-card round loss.
Further, contract negotiations with QB Dak Prescott are dragging on, with the signal-caller set to become a free agent after this season. Those who bet on NFL season win total odds seem concerned about the Cowboys at this point.
The Cowboys opened at 10.5 wins, with Under a -120 favorite. They’re now down to 10 wins, with Under now a -130 favorite.
"We’ve seen a lot of Under action on Dallas," Michaelson said. "The Cowboys are always a polarizing team, and this offseason is no different. I think there’s also some uncertainty around Dak Prescott after their blowout home playoff loss to Green Bay."
The Raiders had a QB competition between veteran Gardner Minshew and second-year signal-caller Aidan O’Connell, but head coach Antonio Pierce recently named Minshew the winner and Week 1 starter.
Still, expectations aren’t high for the Silver and Black. The SuperBook opened Las Vegas’ win total at 7, with the Over and Under both at -110. Now, the Raiders are at 6.5, with Over a -130 favorite and Under a +110 underdog.
"We’ve seen some Under action on the Raiders," Michaelson said. "Their preseason has been uninspiring so far, and Gardner Minshew doesn’t necessarily get the juices flowing."
The preseason generally isn’t a strong indicator of how the regular season will play out. But the Raiders are 0-2 SU and ATS, including a 27-12 loss as seven-point home favorites vs. Dallas this past weekend.
Regular Season Win Totals: Over
Washington will definitely have a rookie under center this season. Head coach Dan Quinn declared second overall pick Jayden Daniels the regular-season starter Monday.
As noted above, the Commanders went 4-13 SU this past season, mirroring the Patriots. Oddsmakers and bettors are more optimistic about Washington, although the Commanders’ win total is still a modest 6.5 at The SuperBook.
"Any time there’s a top-five quarterback taken, you’re always going to see increased interest in that team the following season," Michaelson said. "Plus, Daniels won the Heisman Trophy last year, so he’s a name that people know from college."
However, it’s not sharp play that's driving action on the Commanders' Over 6.5 wins. "This is a public play for now," Michaelson said.
The SuperBook opened Over 6.5 wins at -120 and Under 6.5 wins at even money (+100). Despite a hard public push on the Over, The SuperBook hasn’t changed those odds yet.
This might be a little surprising. The Vikings lost starting QB Kirk Cousins, who left for Atlanta in free agency, at the end of last season. Minnesota drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick after picking up Sam Darnold in free agency.
The Viking didn’t seem to be a team pointing in the right direction. And honestly, their win total of 6.5 would support that notion. But bettors seem to think Minnesota can beat that number, even after McCarthy was ruled out for the season with a torn meniscus.
"We had wiseguy Over money early, which I think was more a reflection of the market than anything," Michaelson said.
Over 6.5 wins opened as a -120 favorite at The SuperBook, and the Over is now out to -135, meaning it would take a $135 bet to profit $100 ($235 total payout).
"I don’t think J.J. McCarthy was much of a factor with early action, as I don’t think he was expected to start," Michaelson added. "We’ve seen a little bit of Under play since his injury, but I don’t know if it’s McCarthy-related."
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Staying in the NFC North, the Lions continue to ride a popularity wave that stretches back to the midway point of the 2022-23 season. In the last 30 games, Detroit has come up big for bettors, going 22-8 SU and a superb 23-7 ATS.
The Lions nearly upset San Francisco in last season’s NFC Championship Game, narrowly falling 34-31. This year’s season win total has seen a notable shift. The SuperBook opened the Lions at 10.5, but with Under a -130 favorite and Over a +110 underdog. The number is still 10.5, but Over is now a -120 favorite, with the Under at even money (+100).
"The public is really excited about the Lions. They came so close to making their first Super Bowl appearance last season," Michaelson said. "This feels like a team that a lot of neutral bettors root for."
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him at @PatrickE_Vegas.
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