Bills-Texans AFC showdown is 'a true coin flip in every sense of the term'
Power ratings drive betting lines from open to close in Las Vegas.
During NFL season, oddsmakers use their ratings to create numbers, bookmakers shade those numbers and post their lines on Sunday, then professional bettors use their numbers throughout the week to find edges and make bets.
It’s an ecosystem that rinses and repeats for months. And it’s way more dynamic art than exact science. When the league’s highest-rated teams hit the highway to take on a playoff contender, you tend to get smaller spreads that usually come with polarizing opinions.
That’s exactly the case for Sunday’s big AFC showdown between Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills and C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans. Buffalo opened -1 and the game is now a pick ‘em.
"I know a group that played Houston +1, and I’ve also seen Buffalo taken back at +1," professional bettor Adam Chernoff told FOX Sports. "We know [PK] in the NFL means nothing. So the fact that there’s disagreement around the 1 on each side, it tells you all you need to know about this game."
Barring injury news, it’s difficult to envision the betting line getting too rich on either side. And if you think professionals are putting a bunch of stock in Buffalo’s 35-10 blowout loss at the Baltimore Ravens, think again.
"Buffalo getting beat up by Baltimore is a one-of-one unique matchup that made the Bills look like a team they’re absolutely not," Chernoff said. "The Bills have injuries up and down the spine of their defense and the Ravens are as well-equipped to take advantage of that as any team in the league.
"Houston is not going to beat Buffalo the same way Baltimore did. The Bills’ cornerbacks have been great all season, and they’re overperforming. They look fantastic. They’re [playing better] than we could’ve ever expected. They match up fairly well against the Texans’ wide receivers.
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"The big question is will this be another Stroud game against zone defense?" Chernoff continued. "He’s absolutely destroyed zones his entire career. [Sean] McDermott and [Bobby] Babich have been awesome in games where they have to come up with a specific game plan, even amid injuries. This will be more of a scheme win for the Bills if they win and cover. They won’t be limited by physicality."
So … no bet?
"I have no bet on the game," Chernoff admitted. "I wish you all the best writing a story about this one, because it’s split right down the middle with respected money on both sides. It’s a true coin flip in every sense of the term."
Since Chernoff wouldn’t bite — kudos to him for not forcing a wager he doesn’t like down our throats — I took the conversation in a different direction.
Allen (+400 at DraftKings) and Stroud (+800 at DraftKings) are two of the game’s most talented signal callers and two of the most popular options in the betting market for the league’s Most Valuable Player.
If I gave Chernoff a crisp $100 bill with a straight-faced Benjamin Franklin and made him wager on one of the quarterbacks, what’s the move?
"The Allen number has come in a lot," Chernoff said after a sigh. "But I would still go with Allen because he’s more of the team than Stroud is. Stroud has weapons. Allen has nothing. If the Bills make the playoffs and are in contention for a top seed, more of the acceptance to why will go to Allen.
"The Texans have Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, [offensive coordinator] Bobby Slowik, not to mention a pretty good defense. The Bills have Khalil Shakir and half of Curtis Samuel, and Allen is running around doing whatever he can.
"If the Bills get to 10 or 11 wins, everyone will look at Allen. And there’s no way they reach that number unless he’s a massive, massive part of it."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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