Bills QB Josh Allen rides thin line between being aggressive and reckless

By Henry McKenna
Published

The Buffalo Bills have let Josh Allen get away with some bad habits over the past year. Buffalo is so good from top to bottom that Allen can afford to make a few mistakes that would ruin other teams. 

There are so many reasons why the Bills give Allen more latitude than other teams give their quarterbacks. But there's no doubt Allen has a proclivity to let his mistakes snowball.

Including the postseason, Allen has had six games this season in which he has thrown two interceptions or more. That's a lot of multiple-interception games for a guy with just 16 total picks (14 in the regular season). He has had nine games with two or more turnover-worthy plays and six games with three or more turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. He has lost six fumbles on the season.

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LeSean McCoy and David Helman discuss whether there's reason to be nervous about Josh Allen’s turnovers headed into the AFC divisional round.

The question is how you want to view his style of play. 

On one hand, you can label his play as careless. It's not hard to make that case. But that feels like an overstatement for a quarterback of Allen's caliber. I would argue that Allen is hyper-aggressive — with occasional games when he is over-aggressive. In some games, he'll make a completely inadvisable throw, and it will result in a touchdown. And in other games, he'll make that same throw for an interception. More often than not, his aggressive throws have good outcomes. On the season, he has 51 big-time throws (most in the NFL) and 32 turnover-worthy plays (most in the NFL). 

"There is a thin line between being aggressive and being a little bit reckless," Allen said Wednesday. "Last week, maybe [I was] getting too aggressive and just [should have had the] understanding with the lead, just forcing longer drives instead of helping their team get back in. And that's what I really did."

Against Miami Dolphins in the wild-card round, Allen averaged 15.6 air yards on his 39 passes. That average ranks first among 2,372 player games since 2007 in which a QB attempted at least 39 passes. The air yards average in those games was 8.2, nearly half of Allen's last weekend.

In other words, Allen was all or nothing — firing deep balls downfield to test the Dolphins' shoddy secondary. And though he posted a 59% completion percentage, he still put up 352 yards and three touchdowns to go with his two interceptions and a lost fumble. He had six passes go for 20 yards or more.

"It's a balancing act that you deal with any time you have great football players, especially at the quarterback position," Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey said Tuesday. "There's times where you have to try to fit the ball in a tight window or take a chance because you have a one-on-one matchup with one of your better receivers." 

Allen said he felt like he made only one glaring mistake: a deep pass to John Brown that Xavien Howard intercepted. (The other interception came on a drop by receiver Cole Beasley.) And Dorsey felt like Allen saw the field well. But maybe they're ignoring a few passes. Allen had three turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.

Against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, Allen can't make that many mistakes. It was one thing to let Dolphins third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson back into the game. It will be another thing entirely to let Joe Burrow back into one. And then, if the Bills win, they'll probably see the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. (We all know you cannot let Mahomes hang around.)

Incidentally, the Bills' matchup against the Chiefs from Week 6 is exactly why I think Allen can control himself in high-pressure situations.

Against Kansas City, Allen had just one turnover-worthy play. He played one of his sharpest games of the season — finding the perfect balance of aggressiveness and risk management. He finished that game with six big-time throws. And that was his best ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays of the season (6:1). (Per Pro Football Focus, a big-time throw is a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown farther down the field and/or into a tighter window.) He threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. That's the version of Allen that the Bills want.

But as I mentioned, that's not always the version of Allen they need. He is so explosive that, even in games when he makes mistakes, he can overcome them. Allen's unique playmaking ability is a part of why he might be the biggest risk-taker in the NFL. If he botches a play (or four), he can turn around with a 60-yard deep shot on the ensuing drive. And his defense is also quick to bail out its quarterback when he makes mistakes.

The Bills can try to make Allen play within the realm of reason. But he is who he is. He's a gunslinger. So, Buffalo will spend this postseason riding with the soaring highs and plummeting lows of its quarterback. The Bills just have to hope he executes in the games to come, because his margin for error will grow smaller every week.

Josh Allen is out of control, for better and for worse.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

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