Ranking the biggest concerns for each AFC West team in 2021
By Randy Mueller
Special to FOX Sports
After breaking down the North, East and South, this completes my run through the AFC regarding the issues that would keep me awake if I were these teams' general manager.
If your GM is happy with his team, he’s a rare breed. Even the teams that played in the Super Bowl last season have issues. In the NFL, so much of your success comes down to not only building out your roster but also managing the bumps in the road along the way. A 17-game season is an eternity, and every team is about three losses away from a good mutiny.
A GM's job is to project where a team will spring a leak before it happens. With that in mind, here's my analysis of the AFC West.
I have read projections regarding the Broncos that are all over the proverbial field, from them being the most talented team in the division to coach Vic Fangio being on the hot seat. New GM George Paton spent most of the offseason adding to a defense that should be top-five in the league. The D features depth at corner, one of the league’s best free safeties in newly extended Justin Simmons and a healthy Von Miller to book-end with fellow DE Bradley Chubb.
Having their two best pass-rushers healthy is big, but you can’t put all your eggs into the basket of those two creating all the pressure. Last year, the Broncos blitzed 39% of the time (Pittsburgh led the league at 61.7%) and allowed third-down conversions 40% of the time, which was middle of the pack league-wide.
That's too low when coupled with an offense that had a propensity for screwing things up. Nobody is going to get Fangio to redesign his defensive philosophy, but I would be all-in for increasing the pressure packages to try to increase turnovers and create short fields for the offense.
That said, the elephant in the room is the quarterback position. Paton tried everything in his power to upgrade the position, but trading for a much-maligned Teddy Bridgewater, who had been kicked to the curb in Carolina, was the best he could do. Bridgewater failed late in games too many times for the Panthers to sign up for that again, and they instead chose the reclamation project of Sam Darnold. Paton didn’t have an affinity for drafting a rookie — Ohio State's Justin Fields was available — and once the Aaron Rodgers saga played out in Green Bay, the GM has punted on finding his upgrade until 2022.
I’ve watched a lot of Broncos film from 2020, and the play at the QB position was so poor that I would have to get a sponsorship from Pepto Bismol for 2021 if Drew Lock were still the main option. Lock’s performance was not anywhere near good enough, and at times, it was downright awful. Without getting technical, his decision-making tore the heart out of many a drive, no doubt making the coaching staff and front office sick to their stomachs.
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The Broncos have already exhibited more patience than I could have ever shown, so kudos to Fangio and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmer. The flaws that I saw in Lock’s play last season were fatal. Don’t get me wrong, he has arm talent and a physical skill set, but any development was hampered by his inconsistent decision-making.
This team also lacks a 1,000-yard back. Javonte Williams, Denver's second-round pick out of North Carolina, might provide additional explosiveness, but he needs help from the offensive line, which really struggled on the interior in 2020. Playing rookie center Lloyd Cushenberry III came at a price. Offensive line coach Mike Munchak is one of the best; he saved former first-rounder Garett Bolles' career, and now he'll be asked to do the same with others this year. It’s a big ask.
I can’t consider the Broncos true challengers to the Kansas City Chiefs until I see some of these things change. This team is a work in progress, and my guess is that the first-year GM is hoping his veteran coaching staff can overcome some of the flaws in roster construction and some of the gaps in the talent level. But the biggest question Paton must figure out is: Does Drew Lock have the intangibles to go with the talent?
Until this question is answered, the Broncos will be stuck in neutral.
Entering year four of a 10-year contract, Raiders head coach Jon Gruden is still looking for his first winning season in his second stint with the silver and black. I can’t imagine that this is how owner Mark Davis envisioned this version of "Just win, baby" going.
Winning is really hard in the NFL, and the struggle to build a playoff team has been real for Gruden. So real that respected longtime employees, including club president Marc Badain, are jumping ship for unknown reasons.
For all intents and purposes, and regardless of titles, Gruden runs the entire show in Vegas. Every personnel decision and every coaching decision goes through him. I have no idea how the dynamics work between Jon and well-liked but experience-light GM Mike Mayock. The amount of trust and rope that Gruden gives Mayock in decision-making and planning is paramount, in my opinion.
I have been in Mayock’s shoes in two similar situations: once in Seattle, when Mike Holmgren came from Green Bay as our coach and GM, and then in Miami, when Nick Saban had the keys to the entire castle with the Dolphins. It’s because of this that I know this kind of structure can work, if it’s the route chosen by the owner. But it’s entirely about the two people working together and establishing trust and respect for each other.
I felt I could bring any idea or really any team-building thoughts to the table and have them heard when working with both Holmgren and Saban — not only heard but acted on as well. The difference was I had 20 years in the league and an overall feel for building a team in my back pocket to draw from. Said another way, I had the scars of mistakes and the perspective/experience of running teams that you get only by sitting in that chair.
I can only imagine that learning this job on the fly with no experience, as Mayock has had to do, and working with a person so emotional and impulsive as Gruden, can really be hard. I bet Gruden would even admit to that.
As a Raiders fan and from the outside looking in, I worry that too many decisions have been made impulsively and without a big-picture plan. It's just grabbing parts off the shelf and trying to plug them in without a process. Sometimes this happens when many people are in the boss’ ear. I actually think Gruden is a really good coach and his coaching style is infectious, but the added pressure of team-building and calling all the shots bogs him down.
QB Derek Carr, after a couple years of constant criticism, seems to have taken the next step to being a top-15 QB. The Raiders' offense was in the top 10 in both yards per game (383.3) and points per game (27.1) last season. But here is my worry on that side of the ball: Carr has one year left on his contract. That would cause me some consternation, knowing the coach is not totally sold. We all know where QB money is trending nowadays.
The Raiders have restructured the offensive line, which was needed, but it’s now in a period of adjusting again to moving parts. They let their most complete WR — Nelson Agholor and his 48 receptions — escape to New England, so that group is in flux as well. Sometimes a team needs to stay the course and build on what it has, and that means resisting change and having patience.
The Raiders' biggest worries, though, come on the defensive side of the ball. Last season, they were 29th in sacks, 30th in points allowed per game and 30th in third-down conversions allowed. As a result, new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was hired to simplify the defense and get it to play fast. I have found that simple is not always better.
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No doubt this defensive group has struggled to know what it was doing in the past. My eyes will be glued to the speed at which players grasp the new concepts. I do like the fact that the Raiders have multiple bodies to roll in and out up front this year. The fact is, though, you can’t just keep changing players, especially since the team has paid out so much in cash and cap (which become sunk costs).
The bottom line is that the Raiders' evaluations as a staff must improve, especially on defense. The hard part is that evaluations are not Gruden's strength. So let’s hope Gruden the coach can overcome some of Gruden the decision-maker's mistakes.
In 2018, my last year with the Chargers, the marketing slogan for the team was: "The battle for L.A." I don’t think the Chargers were quite ready for that battle at the time, so most of us would admit that the Rams won.
Things have changed somewhat since then. General manager Tom Telesco has hired his third head coach, and the early returns are that former Rams DC Brandon Staley has interjected new life into a team that, last season, couldn’t get out of its own way.
Well, if you can’t beat ‘em, join ’em — or have them join you in the fight for L.A.
Everyone in Charger-land is sleeping better these days now that they seem to have solved the hardest equation in pro football: finding a quarterback. Justin Herbert, who set a slew of rookie records last season, is a keeper.
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Now the question for the Chargers is: Have they done enough elsewhere? Herbert has checked all the boxes through one season. Keeping him upright and surrounding him with enough talent are the two obvious tasks for this franchise going forward.
For the 10 years I was with the team and the two years since my departure, one thing about the Chargers has always kept me up at night. They seem to sign a player here or there every offseason but never commit to doing enough for my liking. It’s almost like they have been afraid of the expectations. This year seems a bit different. Whether it's LB Kyler Fackrell or CB Asante Samuel Jr., the Chargers have added some veteran depth, spurring roster competition that has been lacking in a lot of years.
Having said that, the Chargers will field the best offensive line since Telesco has been in charge, and that’s a giant plus. This group hadn't been the same since the retirement of center Nick Hardwick, who captained the ship. By signing former Packers center Corey Linsley, L.A. finally made a commitment to a veteran leader and communicator. The addition of Linsley should go down as one of the most impactful signings in the league for 2021.
Center is a position of such great influence that not only does it make the team's front solid, but I think it also makes QB Herbert’s job easier. If I were building an offensive line from scratch, I’d start with a veteran center who has seen all the defensive games, movements, adjustments, etc. Couple Linsley with newly drafted tackle Rashawn Slater, and you have 40% of an offensive line for the next decade.
Behind the line, I worry about a legit back to pair with productive but undersized RB Austin Ekeler, who's 5-foot-8 and 200 pounds. It’s a two-man job in this day and age, and small guys usually get hurt (that's a fact, not my opinion). L.A.'s backups don’t have enough juice for my liking.
Getting perennial Pro Bowler but oft-injured DE Joey Bosa back takes pressure off a secondary that lacks a shutdown corner. A healthy SS Derwin James Jr. will go a long way toward stopping receivers from gallivanting across the middle without fear. One thing I am not worried about is how either will fit into Coach Staley’s new defense. I would think Bosa and his flexibility/versatility should be even more of a factor than in the past, and James can be a moveable piece much like Jamal Adams is in Seattle.
As is the case for all teams, injuries have always factored into the Chargers' fortunes. Signing a couple of extra vets, even though it might be a struggle cap-wise, is a smart move and goes against the grain of the team's philosophy of the past.
Maybe this is the year the "battle for L.A." actually is a fight.
I saved the best for last for a reason: Chiefs decision-makers sleep way better than those for the rest of the league. After a 14-2 record in 2020 and two straight trips to the Super Bowl, their issues pale in comparison to those of all the chasers.
Sure, they had to make some adjustments to their offensive, line but on paper, it might be better than last year's. They spent big money for guard Joe Thuney and traded for Orlando Brown Jr. from the Ravens, both upgrades over what K.C. played with last season.
The Chiefs' skill-position players should be just as dynamic on the perimeter as they have been, and as long as they have QB Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the league doesn’t, I like their chances. Out of all the statistics I could throw out about their prolific offense, the numbers of their two elite pass-catchers jumped out at me for 2020:
• Travis Kelce: 105 receptions for 1,416 yards, 13.5 YPC
• Tyreek Hill: 87 receptions for 1,276 yards, 14.7 YPC
Hill is said to be the fastest man in the league, yet TE Kelce averaged only about one fewer yard per reception. Note to self: Next to the QB, Kelce is the MVP of this offense. Maybe this surprises nobody, but combining the league’s best tight end and the league’s fastest receiver with the league’s best player/QB would make me sleep like a baby.
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The ability to handle prosperity might be a factor on some teams that have experienced this much success, but I don’t see these guys letting Andy Reid down. It’s obvious that they care about him personally, and they have displayed the same hunger that pushed them up the mountain in trying to stay there. Reid practices hard, and his guys consistently work. That won’t change.
All that said, some obstacles might rear their ugly heads on defense. DE Frank Clark figures to miss time, perhaps significant time, for his off-the-field issues. But fellow defensive lineman Chris Jones' versatility to slide outside and be an effective edge rusher is so unique that K.C. might not miss a beat. I’m not sure there is another one like Jones in the NFL.
Every time I see him crushing people on film, I think back to sitting in a Starbucks on a Thursday night in Columbia, Missouri, writing a college report on Jones while awaiting the kickoff of Mississippi State vs. Missouri. (Side note: The two quarterbacks in that game were Dak Prescott and Drew Lock, neither of whom I was really there to see.) I remember my internal struggle while typing that report: If Jones would only play hard every play, I’d throw a first-round grade on him.
I just couldn’t justify it because he was picking his spots at that point in his career. Grading him kept me awake because I saw talent, but if I were with the Chiefs now, he’d make me sleep easy. We all miss every now and then. Jones' inconsistent motor back then is probably what dropped him into the second round. That motor runs hot now, and as a result, he’s a game wrecker and has been the past couple of years.
More than any specific player, the way this D-line as a group holds the point of attack and can be physical against opponents' run games is what makes it such a challenge. The under-the-radar addition of former Seahawk Jarran Reed — who had options and was sold on the Chiefs because of the quality of who would line up next to him — to go with Derrick Nnadi and Tershawn Wharton makes this unit almost impenetrable vs. the run game. The defensive line is a way undervalued component of this team. These guys are big and powerful, even by NFL standards.
If we are looking for reasons to be nervous, depth in the secondary might be a factor, and a backup RB will have to emerge from the preseason. But, trust me, the decision-makers in K.C. don’t need sleep aids. This situation is not the norm, so I hope the Chiefs can enjoy it while it lasts.
Randy Mueller is the former general manager for the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. He spent more than 30 years working in NFL front offices as a talent evaluator. Follow him on Twitter or at muellerfootball.com.