The Big Picture: Somehow, the Spiraling Buccaneers Can Still Win the NFC South

Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.) – It has been a painfully direct free fall over the past two months for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and yet, somehow, a parachute could still deploy.

Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last eight games, going from a 5-1 start that had it atop most NFL power rankings to its current 7-9 record. That includes four straight losses by four points or fewer.

But even after Sunday's 20-17 loss to the Dolphins, the Bucs are still very much alive as playoff contenders, thanks to playing in a bad, bad NFC South. If the Bucs win at home Sunday – as favored – against the 8-8 Panthers and the Falcons don't win their final two regular-season games (one of which is on Monday night against the Rams), then the Buccaneers will be NFC South champions at 8-9 with a home playoff game on the docket.

"The opportunity is there," head coach Todd Bowles said at the podium after Sunday's loss to the Dolphins. "There's a door of opportunity and a window of opportunity, and it's up to us as coaches and players, as a team, to take advantage of it."

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There's a not-so-flattering piece of history involved now. If the Bucs do, in fact, beat the Panthers and win the NFC South, they'll do it with the worst final nine games of any playoff team in the Super Bowl era. They'd be 2-7 in their last nine games, out-badding the 2010 Seahawks and 2020 Bears, both of whom went 3-6 on the way to the playoffs.

Tampa Bay is that movie character who keeps getting shot but just will not die, that once-beautiful car that keeps getting into ugly accidents but somehow hasn't been totaled.

"This is our last chance and it's blatantly obvious," said quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has thrown fourth-quarter interceptions in three straight losses, after the loss to Miami. "There is no more regular-season games on the schedule."

The Buccaneers have tried to keep together a locker room under extremely stressful circumstances. A fan posted a video clip from the stands showing running back Bucky Irving – in the midst of nine carries for 19 yards Sunday – demonstrably frustrated as he talked to offensive linemen on the bench. All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs, who missed Sunday's game with a toe injury, told me it was a "little tiff" and that he tried to tell Irving the line would handle its problems.

Part of the issue with the free-falling Bucs is that all parties have been involved. 

Offensive ineptitude? Mayfield had three turnovers on Sunday, including two in the fourth quarter. Defensive struggles? Tampa Bay gave up a 63-yard touchdown pass from a seventh-round rookie to an undrafted rookie Sunday, both the first of their young careers. Special teams? The Buccaneers had a field goal blocked Sunday and gave up a 47-yard kickoff return to set up a Dolphins field goal.

Tampa Bay has lost so many games so similarly that there's monotony and redundancy in its attempts to explain it.

"I don’t want to give you guys the same old crap that you say that seems like it’s repeating itself week after week, but the sad truth is it is the same things week after week," center Graham Barton told me in the locker room after the loss to the Dolphins. "We’ve got to worry about ourselves, got to execute in those little moments that make or break games … We’ve got to come together this week."

Can the Buccaneers do that? They've been talking about righting the ship and turning things around for two months. They've been losing to teams they shouldn't lose to, mostly by only a few points. Why expect change now?

The Bucs have talked about urgency throughout their 1-7 skid.

"Every game in my eyes is a must-win, playoff scenario," Mayfield said on Nov. 28, four losses ago.

On Dec. 11, Bowles unleashed a profanity-laced tirade after his team blew a 14-point lead and lost to Atlanta, memorably saying, "You can't sugarcoat that s--t. It was inex-f---ing-cusable. There's no f---ing answer for it. No excuse for it. That's what you tell them in the locker room: Look in the f---ing mirror."

And yet the NFL has excused them and kept them alive for playoff contention. For all the post-loss looking in the mirror, that hasn't reflected any change in outcome in the last four losses.

The hope had been that the Bucs would be healthy down the stretch after a ton of injuries at receiver, offensive line and cornerback early in the season. They're still without both starting guards, which has led to pressure on Mayfield, and might finish the season without both starting corners due to current injuries. Mayfield has played through several injuries – after 16 touchdowns against two interceptions in the first nine games, he's thrown nine touchdowns against seven interceptions in the last seven games.

The last-minute comeback wins of September have turned into the agonizingly close losses of December. Tampa Bay has lost seven of eight games, but, with more injuries than they have now, beat three playoff teams early in the season: the 49ers (now 12-4) at home, as well as the Seahawks (13-3) and Texans (11-5) on the road.

A decent chunk of the fan base is frustrated enough that it's actually pulling for one more loss, knowing it might lead to a coaching change or at least a better draft pick instead of what is anticipated to be a first-round exit in the playoffs.

As a matter of fine print, the Bucs don't quite control their playoff destiny. They also need to have the Falcons lose one of their final two games to clinch the division with a win over Carolina. Atlanta has been eliminated, but if it won out, the division could have a three-way tie at 8-9 with a Bucs win, and the Panthers would win that tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the Bucs and Falcons. In a two-way tie between the Bucs and Panthers, Tampa Bay has the edge on record against common opponents.

The Bucs have one week to change the course of their season, to salvage a division title and the hope of a playoff appearance instead of an epic collapse that could bring about larger change. 

Will Bowles be around next season, even if he won division titles in each of his first three seasons? Does Mayfield still get a lucrative extension with one year left on his current contract? Will such a dramatic downturn prompt more drastic levels of roster churn in the offseason?

"We don’t have any other opportunities," wide receiver Chris Godwin said in the locker room on Sunday. "We’ve got to go now, and we have to work with that intent and enthusiasm throughout the week. When it just comes to the game, we have to execute throughout the entire game. 

"Both teams (next week) are going to be playing for their season, and honestly, those are the games that are most exciting. It’s playoff football, and it’s an honor and a privilege to even play meaningful football in December and January. I know I’m grateful for it, and I’m excited about this chance."

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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