Bet on banged-up 49ers to go Under 11.5 wins
We are officially on to Week 3 of the NFL season, after we saw a March Madness-like flurry of upsets and exciting finishes in Week 2.
The Cowboys, Lions, Ravens and Eagles all lost as sizable favorites, as survivor pools were whittled down in record fashion. Not only was there survivor carnage, but Fantasy Football waiver wires were active after last weekend’s games.
Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp and Isiah Pacheco were just a few of the high-profile players who joined the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua among the list of notable significant injuries.
And with that, as we head into Sunday’s action, what caught my eye from a betting perspective was some of the Over/Under season wins that are offered at various sportsbooks.
Let's take a look.
Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 wins (FanDuel)
The Steelers are 2-0 with two wins on the road. One of the games was basically viewed as a toss-up game going in against the Broncos. In the other, they were 4.5 point-underdogs against the Falcons.
Pittsburgh, by all accounts, has exceeded expectations.
Yet, the Steelers' season win total before the season started was 8.5 as well. Not only do they have two wins in the bank, but they must be upgraded ever so slightly from how they were viewed coming into the year. All they have to do from here on out is go 7-8, and they already have two road games crossed off of their calendar.
The Steelers getting to nine wins is a good bet.
San Francisco 49ers Under 11.5 wins (-125 at DraftKings)
Super Bowl hangover?
Sure, that’s a concern. Perhaps you wait a week or two to make this bet, considering the Niners' next two games are against the beat-up Rams and then the Patriots.
But the 49ers themselves are already all beaten up, and they have a loss on their ledger.
The defending NFC champs still have to deal with a first-place schedule and have games against the Lions, Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys and Packers. They also get the Dolphins later in the season when Tua Tagavailoa could be healthy and available. Meanwhile, their four games against the Cardinals and Seahawks now look tougher than they did before the season, as both teams look slightly better than expected.
Getting to 12 wins again with all of these obstacles is asking a lot when you consider San Francisco's schedule and all of its injuries.
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Minnesota Vikings Under 9.5 Wins (DraftKings)
Minnesota has been one of the league’s early surprises.
The Vikings already have a convincing win against the 49ers and a dominant road win against the lowly Giants, en route to a 2-0 record.
A great story so far, and a fun team to watch — but a 10-win team? Those are lofty expectations for a Sam Darnold-led group that was only expected to win six or seven games prior to the season.
Perhaps Darnold has now found his home and will live up to the expectations that led to him getting drafted No. 3 in 2018. But keep in mind that in 2021, Darnold got off to a 3-0 start with the Carolina Panthers and that team still finished with just five wins the entire season.
The schedule isn’t easy. The Vikings have four games combined against the Lions and Packers, as well as games against the Jets, Texans, Falcons, Seahawks and Cardinals. This means there are no layups for the upstart Vikings.
They could certainly contend for a playoff spot, but double-digit wins still seem far-fetched.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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