Best early NFL futures bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
I'll keep it simple. With the NFL season finally upon us, it's time to start making some bets.
If you read this space, you know I like to share picks at the prices I get them at, basically actionable bets that you can all make.
I have a couple of wagers I like, so let's dive into some early NFL futures to get your money down on.
Tua Tagovailoa Over/Under 4,100.5 passing yards
Tua Tagovailoa Over/Under 25.5 touchdown passes
Tua was healthy for an entire season last year for the first time in his career. The result was an NFL-leading 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns. But will that be the exception and not the norm?
In his first three years, Tua would have gone under 4,100.5 and 25.5 touchdowns every year.
The Dolphins also have a bit of a disadvantage late in the season since they'll be playing in some cold and bad weather games.
This is a bet on Tua's health, while also taking advantage of lofty numbers that may be from an outlier of a season.
PICK: Tagovailoa Under 4,100.5 passing yards
PICK: Tagovailoa Under 25.5 touchdown passes
Trevor Lawrence to lead NFL in passing yards
Lawrence threw for over 4,000 yards last year, despite missing a game and playing injured in others. He was also victimized by a fair number of drops by his receiving corps.
The overall offensive unit will be better this season. The Jags overhauled at wide receiver, bringing in Gabe Davis and drafting Brian Thomas Jr. to go along with Christian Kirk. Travis Etienne is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield.
Outside of a trip to Tennessee in Week 14, the Jags don’t play a game that isn't in a dome or in Florida from Week 10 on. This means weather shouldn’t restrict Lawrence's production.
Ultimately, this will be a big year for Lawrence. Is he the generational quarterback talent people thought he was when he went No. 1 overall? The jury is still out on that. But I like him to lead the league in passing at this price.
PICK: Trevor Lawrence to lead NFL in passing yards (+2500)
Brian Thomas Jr. to lead rookies in receiving yards
This year's class has a great group of young wide receivers and Thomas may be a tad forgotten — even if he’s walking into the best situation for success.
PICK: Brian Thomas Jr. to lead rookies in receiving yards (+1600)
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Giants Over/Under 6.5 wins; Under 5.5 wins +152
I'm not sure the Giants really improved their offensive line. And quarterback Daniel Jones returning from injury might not be a good thing, considering his career-best QBR is 63, and he’s been sacked 179 times in 60 career games.
The defensive line could be very good, but that, along with the potential of Malik Nabers, is pretty much all Giants fans have to be excited about.
If the Giants don't beat the Vikings at home in Week 1 in a tossup game, it may be a while before they pick up another win.
PICK: Giants Under 6.5 wins (-135)
PICK: Giants Under 5.5 wins (+152)
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Chargers Over/Under 8.5 wins
With or without Justin Herbert, this is an overhaul — a rebuild, if you will — for Jim Harbaugh. The secondary could be very bad, and we’ve already seen that, if Easton Stick has to play actual games, it isn't going to go well for a new-look Chargers offense.
The schedule appears easy, but it's been easy in the past, as the division outside Kansas City isn't great. The coaches and players may change, but Chargers bad luck is a thing. We know every LAC contest will be a one-possession game midway through the fourth quarter and something ridiculous will decide the ending.
Under players are definitely getting a "Harbaugh Bump" in price with this one.
PICK: Chargers Under 8.5 wins (+130)
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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