Ravens' gutsy two-point call comes into question after loss to Steelers
The conversion failed and the Baltimore Ravens fell.
The Pittsburgh Steelers knocked off their AFC North rivals 20-19 on Sunday, and a decision by Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh that has since drawn a great deal of criticism.
Trailing 20-13, Lamar Jackson found Sammy Watkins for a six-yard score with 12 seconds to go, bringing the Ravens to within one.
Baltimore decided to go for two and the win, but Jackson missed Mark Andrews on a throw that would have essentially sealed victory.
After the game, Jackson revealed that the pressure from Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt is what caused him to miss on the throw, and now, Jackson sits 3-of-10 in his career on regular-season two-point conversion attempts.
John Harbaugh spoke with the media after the loss as well, revealing that the decision to go for the two-point conversion had a lot to do with the absence of Marlon Humphrey, who is out for the season with a torn pec.
The decision to go for the win instead of having star kicker Justin Tucker, –– who is a perfect 23-for-23 on extra-point attempts this season –– send things to overtime was a gutsy call.
But was it the right call?
If you ask Chris Broussard, it's a firm no.
On Monday's "First Things First," he explained why the Ravens should have kicked it and battled it out in OT.
"If Lamar Jackson makes a good pass, they win that game and Harbaugh is the gun-slinging genius. But the bottom line is, this was analytics gone wild. Go for the sure thing. I get that Pittsburgh was rolling, they scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, but for the first three quarters of the game, the Ravens had shut that offense down entirely.
"A tie is better than a loss, especially in a crowded AFC, where if [Baltimore] had tied, they would still be the No. 1 seed. And now they're not."
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Chris Broussard lays out why, at the very least, tying the game with a field goal would have been a better move for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
Going for the win in regulation has become much more common in the last five years.
Since the start of the 2016 season, teams have attempted 16 two-point conversions under two minutes when trailing by one point in the fourth quarter. From 2000-2015, there were only a total of six two-point attempts under those same circumstances.
Over the past three seasons, teams that are trailing by one point in the fourth quarter are 3-of-8 (37.5%) when going for the two-point conversion with under two minutes remaining (1-of-2 this season).
By comparison, teams are converting 92.5% of their extra-point attempts this season.
On the other side, Broussard's cohost Nick Wright offered his support for the Ravens' decision and revealed why Harbaugh's two-point conversion attempt was the right call, despite the fact that it went sideways.
"It is by definition a push at the coin flip. You're 50-50 to win it. … Even without the injuries to the cornerback, I don't know that in that moment you have reason to trust Baltimore's offense over Pittsburgh's defense even if you win the coin toss."
Over on "The Herd," Colin Cowherd also defended Baltimore's game-winning attempt, saying it's the way that the Ravens have always operated under Harbaugh.
"This is what they do," he said. "The way to lose locker rooms in the NFL is confusion and players start questioning the coach. Nobody in that Baltimore locker room this morning is questioning John Harbaugh or Lamar Jackson. This is their brand. … It was completely true to the Ravens' core values as a franchise."
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Cowherd says the decision to forego a field goal and go for the two-points was completely on brand for the Ravens, and true to their core values as a franchise.
Baltimore is now 8-4 on the season and remains atop the AFC North, but only leads Cincinnati (7-5) by a game and Pittsburgh (6-5) by a game in the loss column.
In other words: a win or a tie would have gone a long way.