Baker Mayfield trade: Panthers make a Hail Mary play

By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist

Signing Baker Mayfield is the equivalent of the Carolina Panthers sending a hopeful heave into the end zone, looking for fortune to fall their way.

It is a desperate move for a desperate team, a team in urgent need of quarterbacking salvation, but without the leverage to land someone that would fit most ideas of the savior stereotype.

It was a switch that came about because the Panthers have a general manager in Scott Fitterer, and a head coach in Matt Rhule, who are both on the steamiest of hot seats, thanks to a two-year stretch with 10 combined wins and stagnant progress. And obviously, it also came about because of the wild turn of events that ended Mayfield’s time with the Cleveland Browns.

The Panthers are hoping to find lightning in a bottle. But they’re also doing the right thing.

For when things are dire and only a drastic uptick will suffice, there is no point playing it safe, no point sticking with what you know. If ever there was a time to take a chance on an unpredictable character capable of flashes of brilliance, it is now.

Mayfield is by no means a perfect QB, but he’s just what the Panthers need. He’s loud and active and unafraid of the spotlight. He’s used to coming in and trying to turn around a forlorn situation because that’s what he found with the then-hapless Browns when they made him the No. 1 pick in 2018.

There are shortcomings to Mayfield’s play, which is why Cleveland was willing to move on from him and go down the Deshaun Watson path, despite all the baggage and uncertainty that accompanies that particular journey.

It is the right move because of what it is — a cheap gamble with no long-term tether.

Mayfield becomes a free agent after the season, and the move will cost Carolina just $4.858 million, thanks to the Browns agreeing to pay $10.5 million, and Mayfield agreeing to a pay cut to get things over the line.

Sam Darnold remains on the Carolina roster, and training camp, which starts in a few short weeks, will be a true competition. Expect things to lean Mayfield’s way, however. Why would the organization go to the trouble of swapping a fifth-round pick (fourth if he meets certain targets unless they were willing to give Mayfield a go?

Carolina knows what it’s going to get with Darnold. That level is unlikely to be enough to spark the kind of turnaround that David Tepper, the richest owner in the NFL, is looking for. It may well be that Mayfield, playing with a far weaker offensive unit than he had in Ohio, won’t be up to scratch either.

But you never know, and that’s the whole point. Mayfield’s very nature as a QB, all the things he has been criticized for, actually work in his favor here.

He’s been accused of being streaky and inconsistent, sometimes over-performing against the bigger teams and struggling unexpectedly against weaker ones. He’s not afraid to say what he thinks, and he generates attention wherever he goes. 

He’s the kind of guy who makes fans furious but who also makes them love him. Make no mistake, there were some sad eyes in Cleveland once the deal finally got made, and not just a few.

Furthermore, it's still unclear exactly what Mayfield is capable of. He’s shown the ability to take a team to the brink of a Super Bowl, as in 2020. He’s shown that he’s unfazed by a narrative of past failure, instantly uplifting the Cleveland fan base when he entered the league.

He’s also shown he can play especially poorly at times, but opinions remain divided as to how much last season should count against him. 

Yes, he had only the 27th-best quarterback rating in 2021 and failed to get the 8-9 Browns into the postseason. But he was also struggling with injury issues, had a severely depleted offensive line and running back corps, and lost star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in a trade.

"Even if Baker plays well, the Panthers won't make the playoffs," FS1’s Nick Wright said on "First Things First." "He's likely next season, whether it's on the Panthers or elsewhere, going to be on his sixth head coach and sixth offensive coordinator in his sixth NFL season. But he's the best QB on the roster, and he'll be the Week 1 starter."

Here’s the thing though. The Panthers aren’t necessarily looking for their QB of the future. They think they have that in Matt Corral, who they took in the third round of the most recent draft. 

If Mayfield comes in, gets flashy a few times, and leads to a general increase in the vibe around the place, if he gets the record remotely close to .500, then heads somewhere else after keeping Corral’s seat warm? The Panthers would be more than happy with that.

So, when we’re talking about desperate throws of the dice, everything is relative. Yes, it is a Hail Mary that Mayfield leads the Panthers to playoff glory. After all, they, and perhaps he, are probably just not good enough for that.

But he’s a personality and a player who wants to win, and he’s the right fit for the right time.

His signing isn’t the precursor to a gilded path and it sure as heck isn’t a surefire bet. What it is a roadmap for an adventure, for Mayfield always brings that. For Carolina — for now — that’s the best they’re going to get.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. You can subscribe to the daily newsletter here.