Are Jets built to win when Aaron Rodgers returns to action in 2024?

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers hit the mark when he labeled this season "a lost year."

He was speaking about his own career and how his Achilles injury essentially ruined his 2023 season. But in turn, Rodgers' injury derailed the Jets' season. They lost a year, too. The Jets seemed to make things worse for themselves after Rodgers' injury. And now, after being officially eliminated from playoff contention after a loss to the Dolphins on Sunday, they've got nothing left to do but think about 2024, when Rodgers will take the field again.

The 40-year-old quarterback, who had previously been wishy-washy about his future, committed this week not just to playing in 2024 but also potentially in 2025 during an interview on "The Pat McAfee Show."

"When I came here, I got kind of a renewed passion and love for the game," Rodgers said. "I don't think next year will be my last year. With some of the things that I've learned this year about taking care of my body and surrounding myself with some creative people who have helped me with my nutrition and functional training at a more acute level, I feel I can play more years and I can be effective into my 40s."

New York is committed to building around an aging Rodgers coming off an Achilles injury — for better or for worse. 

"We want to win a championship. We believe we can win a championship," coach Robert Saleh said Wednesday. "I know Aaron Rodgers said he wants to play at least two years, but in a perfect situation, we win a championship next year and Aaron walks off in the sunlight. I think he's gonna play until his wheels fall off. I don't think it's one, two [seasons]. I think he'll go three, four, five years if he can. That's just my opinion."

It's optimistic — and probably foolish — to trust Rodgers to play beyond 2024. But it's worth looking at whether the Jets have the right pieces in place to make that run at a championship.

So let's take a look at some of the tough decisions ahead for the Jets.

Coaching staff

Saleh has come under fire multiple times this season, largely due to his commitment to quarterback Zach Wilson. The coach repeatedly stuck by Wilson and praised his progress, even when the third-year pro clearly wasn't progressing. While Wilson did have a few good games — which was a few more than I expected — he was largely an inhibiting factor as New York attempted to stay relevant in the playoff hunt. 

It was strange to see Saleh keep Wilson as the QB1 for as long as he did. But you could see why the Jets didn't turn to their other QBs, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian, who were as bad, if not worse. (That feels like a general management problem, which I'll address shortly. Why didn't the team have better options at QB?)

Wilson's role hasn't been the only situation that has led to losses — or even tension in New York's locker room. Running back Breece Hall spoke out about discontent with his usage early in the season. Running back Michael Carter appeared to absolutely lose it on the team's running backs coach, Taylor Embree. Receiver Mecole Hardman was upset about his usage. 

Not coincidentally, the Jets traded both Carter and Hardman. In my opinion, that's not just poor coaching but also bad general management. (Again, I'll have more to say about GM Joe Douglas in the next section.)

This week the most important voice — that of Rodgers — issued words of support for Saleh.

"I believe in the leadership we have here. I believe in our guys. I think it's not a situation where we have to rebuild. We have to reload a little bit," Rodgers said on McAfee's show. "And there will be some tough decisions for sure. But I like the pieces we have in place."

I don't think the Jets should move on from Saleh, in part because I think most of the blame for this season falls on the general manager, who has — for the past few years — built an offense on broken linemen and too few playmakers. When it became clear that Wilson wasn't a true QB, the Jets needed the other players to step up. And they couldn't. 

If there were one coach that I'd take a look at, it would be offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who was too slow on the uptake in getting his unit resettled after Rodgers' injury. But Hackett is Rodgers' guy. It would be shocking to see him get ousted this offseason.

That said, it's worth wondering: If the Jets fire Saleh, would they then have to tell the next coach Hackett is staying as OC? Because that would be a delicate situation for Rodgers and New York.

General manager

There were times throughout this season when it felt like Saleh wanted to indicate that he was simply coaching the players he was given. And at quarterback, he didn't have enough options.

The backup QB is massively important when you have a 39-year-old QB. The depth was, obviously, even more important when the team lost its 39-year-old QB. But Douglas did essentially nothing. He let Wilson and, eventually, Boyle fail. And when everyone had seen enough, New York added Siemian — not a true remedy. New York needed a better option at QB. There were some out there, whether it was Joshua Dobbs or Jacoby Brissett or even Joe Flacco, who has played well behind a good offensive line in Cleveland.

But of course, Flacco wouldn't have a good offensive line in New York. The Jets are dealing with major issues at tackle, from Mekhi Becton to Duane Brown to Carter Warren to Max Mitchell. None of them has cut it. And, yes, the Jets have had an unfair run of injuries along the line; luck is a factor there. But it's less of a factor in identifying, drafting and developing young talent. New York hasn't done a good job in those areas. Douglas has committed substantial draft capital to the offensive line. It hasn't worked to this point.

It would feel strange to oust the man who brought in Rodgers. But there are too many glaring mistakes from Douglas in building the team to ignore. And it's easy to wonder whether Douglas is openly catering to Rodgers, who told McAfee that he would have some input on the roster decisions this offseason. We've seen how that has gone this year, with receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb and Boyle all enjoying the Friends of Rodgers contracts. And none of those contracts made much sense. Not when the Jets made the deals, and especially not when Rodgers went down.

The only way Douglas survives the offseason is if ownership thinks that everyone gets a pass because of Rodgers' injury. And that would be mighty generous. Because it's no sure thing that the Jets will be contenders in 2024. They will need a shrewd GM to maneuver what's next.

Notable pending free agents

OT Duane Brown
OT Mekhi Becton
S Jordan Whitehead
Edge Bryce Huff
K Greg Zuerlein
P Thomas Morstead
DT Quinton Jefferson
RB Dalvin Cook

The Jets might have to make tough decisions on Becton, Brown and Whitehead, priority players who might end up being too expensive for their taste. 

Brown especially has suffered too many injuries for New York to trust. Unless his value goes to the waste bin (which is possible) and they can sign him as OT3, he isn't going to return next year. And Becton is tough, because he has played well at times. But his injuries and inconsistency (including last week against the Dolphins) are likely to be enough for New York to let him sign elsewhere this offseason.

Whitehead, however, has been terrific. But Rodgers — New York's assistant GM (kidding, sort of) — indicated that he wants the team to put the salary cap money on his side of the ball.

"Offensively, we've gotta reload in a couple spots, but I think we've got good pieces in place. We've got two outstanding game-breaker pieces in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall," Rodgers said. "I think the future is very bright."

The problem is that two game-breakers aren't enough when one of them is a running back. From my vantage, the Jets won't just need help on the offensive line, they'll also need a third playmaker on offense. (And I don't think Lazard is the answer.)

The Jets should absolutely retain their kicker and punter. They are among the best at their position in the league and New York can't afford to take a risk at the position. 

As for Huff, who was incredible for the Jets, Rodgers' recent comments felt telling. He was riddling off a list of the edge talent on New York's defense.

"Some of those guys might get opportunities to get paid somewhere else," Rodgers told McAfee.

Huff is one of them.

Salary cap situation

New York is projected to have about $14 million in cap space (20th in NFL), thanks in large part to Rodgers' decision to restructure his contract. The Jets could free up another $11 million if they could somehow trade Zach Wilson — maybe if they offer a draft pick to go with Wilson as a salary dump. 

Their cap space isn't currently enough to materially change this roster. They have some space in 2025 that they can — and will — steal from by restructuring contracts. 

But it's likely they'll only get one or two big swings in the open market.

So if New York wants to make a push for the right free agent, it will have the flexibility to do so. Receivers like Calvin Ridley, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans and Tyler Boyd are slated to hit free agency. Many of them will re-sign contracts before they get there. But given how big of a flop Lazard has been in 2023, it's fair to wonder whether the Jets might extend themselves for a receiver, particularly if they like the look of the tackles at the top of the draft.

Speaking of which…

Draft capital

For the 2024 NFL Draft, here's what New York is looking at:

First-rounder
Third-rounder
Fourth-rounder
Fourth-rounder (from Broncos)
Sixth-rounder

At 5-9, the Jets are currently projected to land somewhere between the fifth and ninth pick. Their remaining schedule (vs. Commanders, at Browns, at Patriots) isn't brutal. But New York's quarterback situation has gone from bad to worse, with Zach Wilson suffering a concussion. Siemian might end up finishing the year. So the Jets could end up with a top-five pick.

That would be great news for the Jets, because that's where they might just find a game-changing tackle or wideout. Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. will go in the top five, likely the top three. Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt is also one of the draft's elite prospects. And maybe the Jets would consider looking at Georgia tight end Brock Bowers.

Now, a smart team might take this opportunity to draft the heir apparent to Rodgers. But during Rodgers' brief tenure, New York has not acted logically (or intelligently) when it comes to their quarterback situation. If the Jets are going to draft a top-tier offensive player, I'd put money on it being a pass-catcher or a tackle.

The final evaluation

When you put it all together, the Jets are in a good — not great — position. 

Rodgers must return healthy enough to play at a top-10 QB level. This is not a given. He wasn't playing at a top-10 level in 2022. And now, he's coming off an injury that is well-known to ruin careers. (I don't care how many times he's listened to "healing" Dolphin sex. It's a brutal injury.) 

He must have a better support system, which is going to require heavy investment from the front office. That's on Douglas, for now. And with more investments flowing into the offense, the defense has to make sure not to regress. That's on Saleh. Also for now.

Oh, and while we're at it, let's just mention that Sauce Gardner continues to be one of the league's best CBs and that Garrett Wilson will seamlessly step into a WR1 role in a Rodgers-led offense. 

There will be plenty of hype around the Jets again next year. But there are cracks in the foundation. We saw them this year. And they might want to get aggressive this offseason in turning a few positions over as they attempt to get back on track for Super Bowl contention.

The Jets may need more of a rebuild than Rodgers is willing to admit.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.