Are Bears leaning toward trading No. 1 pick, sticking with Justin Fields?

Decision Day for the Chicago Bears hasn't arrived yet, but it's fast approaching.

As the NFL world descends upon Indianapolis for this week's Scouting Combine, the Bears are unofficially on the clock, and that includes a quarterback decision: Keep Justin Fields or draft Caleb Williams (or another player) with the No. 1 overall pick.

Though Williams has been touted by some evaluators as a generational quarterback prospect, the Bears might be leaning toward sticking with Fields at quarterback entering the combine. The Bears trading the No. 1 pick to stick with Fields appears to be "the way the wind is blowing," NBC Sports reported Monday.

FOX Sports NFL insider Peter Schrager offered a similar thought on Monday, saying on NFL Network to "slow down" on the notion that the Bears have picked Williams over Fields. While a decision might not be imminent, Schrager outlined that the upcoming week might be the most important yet as it's the biggest step in the "fact-finding mission," adding that Bears general manager Ryan Poles will likely gauge the trade value of the No. 1 pick. 

Schrager also cited the NBC Sports report as a reason why trading down from the No. 1 overall pick might be an enticing option for the Bears.

"This is a rare deal where Ryan Poles could not only make one trade if they want to keep Fields, they could make two, maybe three trades and just go down that list," Schrager said on "Good Morning Football." "You say, ‘All right, we're going to Washington [at No. 2] or New England [at No. 3] and say the first pick is for you guys.' If you move back to the second or this pick, you could say, ‘We want to move down to the eighth pick. Atlanta do you want to come up? Oh wait, the Raiders are at 13, we'll go back to 13.' 

"You could compile [picks] and completely rebuild this team and roster to surround Justin Fields with young, inexpensive talent at other positions, which is the inverse of drafting a young quarterback and you can spend everywhere else."

The Bears made a similar move last year with the No. 1 pick, which is why they're in the position they're in now. They traded the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers in the weeks leading up to the event, landing the No. 9 overall pick in that year's draft, a 2023 second-round pick, a 2024 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick and standout wide receiver DJ Moore. In addition to Moore, the Bears have used the trade to acquire offensive tackle Darnell Wright and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter in the draft, adding a 2024 fourth-round pick in the process, helping to improve their win total from three to seven in 2023.

Including last year's trade, the No. 1 selection has been traded 13 times since the 1967 NFL Draft. There have only been three occasions where the team trading the No. 1 pick has received an extra first-round pick, although the last two trades involving the No. 1 overall pick saw the team acquiring the top selection giving up an extra first-round pick. In 2016, the Los Angeles Rams traded the No. 15 overall pick, two 2016 second-round picks, a 2016 third-round pick, a 2017 first-round pick and a 2017 third-round pick to get the No. 1 overall pick from the Tennessee Titans, who also gave up a 2016 fourth-round pick and a 2016 sixth-round pick. The Rams picked Jared Goff.

If the Bears traded down from the No. 1 overall pick but remained in the top three, recent history would suggest that they stand to gain even more top draft picks if they traded down a second time. Last year, the Houston Texans gave up the No. 12 overall pick, a 2023 second-round pick (No. 33 overall), a 2024 first-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals for the No. 3 overall pick and 2023 fourth-round pick. In 2021, the San Francisco 49ers gave up the No. 12 overall pick plus two future first-round picks and a future third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins for the No. 3 overall pick.

So, if the Bears traded down twice, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that they could land multiple future first-round picks in addition to more second- and third-round picks in 2024 or in future drafts.

But the Bears still have a decision to make. Fields, who progressed as the 2023 season went on, said he wants to remain in the Windy City though he wants the process to resolve itself soon. The Bears also remain the heavy favorite to draft Williams.