AFC West Roundup: Week 17 Finale
A weekly update on the AFC West, to keep up with the Oakland Raiders and the rest of the division.
The Raiders season was much like the old March proverb — in like a lion, out like a lamb. Pardon the cliché, but real words are difficult to come by after a disappointing end to a promising 2016 regular season. Let’s hope Oakland still has some lion left in them. I am not going to do my usual 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th place breakdowns as there isn’t any point any longer. The Raiders lost, and thus, the Chiefs are AFC West champions.
It chokes me to write that, but it is the truth. They earned the division by showing up ready to play against a Chargers team likely playing their last game in San Diego.
The Raiders failed to show up against a Broncos team that was playing for their suddenly retiring coach. Both team’s opponents had motivations beyond football. The Chiefs overcame them. The Raiders could not.
Oakland’s 2016 regular season will always come with a “what if?” caveat. What if Derek Carr remained healthy? He didn’t, forcing the Raiders to send out backup Matt McGloin in the most important game of the season.
McGloin didn’t stay healthy for long, but long enough to show rust and nerves by missing numerous passes early. After being driven hard to the turf by Denver DE Jared Crick, McGloin wasn’t able to return with a shoulder injury.
That meant that in the span of two weeks, the Raiders went from having a viable MVP candidate in Carr behind center to rookie Connor Cook, who was just activated from the practice squad for the first time for the Broncos game. He’d never thrown an official NFL pass.
Yet here he was, trotted out with a deficit in an important game against the #1 pass defense in the league. No big deal.
Cook played quite well at times, and threw the ball with confidence. He did throw an interception and fumbled, but he also completed 66.7% of his passes for 150 yards and a TD on top.
A rookie seeing his first ever NFL action against a motivated Denver team with a lead putting up an 84.5 passer rating is pretty good. That’s 15 points higher than the Broncos allowed during the season.
For comparison, Tom Brady completed 50% of his passes and had a 68.2 rating against Denver. Brady is the best in the game, and the Broncos played him tough. Cook did some things well against a very, very tough defense.
As the Broncos built an early 17-0 lead, Raider fans got in-game updates from the Chiefs-Chargers game. It was encouraging when the Chargers went up 7-0 early, but the Chiefs soon took over. Timely defense, methodical offense and Tyreek Hill took care of the rest.
That’s been a winning formula for the Chiefs since Hill burst onto the scene with his versatile three touchdown performance in late November against the Broncos. Kansas City had done it with methodical offense and timely defense. Then they began using Hill more, and looking for Travis Kelce more.
Boom. The Chiefs offense has been versatile and dynamic ever since, and adding that to a great defense and special teams has been tough for opponents to overcome. That was again the case as Hill’s 95-yard punt return in the 3rd quarter stopped all though of a San Diego.
Alex Smith has quietly played very well this season. Though boring and vanilla most of the time, when called upon he’s hit big downfield throws and ran the ball well at the right times. I’ve never been a Smith fan, but I’m beginning to feel it’s more the offense and less Smith that keeps him shackled.
The Chiefs look dangerous right now. The Raiders looked lost on Sunday, but I fully expect them to rebound and play a better defensive game against Houston in the Wild Card game.
So the state of affairs for the AFC West teams as we head to the playoffs for two, and the offseason for the other two.
Jan 1, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos running back Devontae Booker (23) runs the ball as Oakland Raiders cornerback David Amerson (29) and strong safety T.J. Carrie (38) defend in the third quarter at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos won 24-6. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are in excellent shape for the foreseeable future. They have a young MVP caliber QB in Derek Carr, a potential DPOY in Khalil Mack, and many of their key pieces are young and under contract for at least the next two years.
Reggie McKenzie has said it is of paramount importance to keep the nucleus together and he will do what’s needed to make it happen. Mark Davis has expressed his willingness to pay for the right players to build a champion. Jack Del Rio continues to put a positive vibe out regardless of what happens and coach this team with patience, intelligence and accountability.
But right now the Raiders feel disappointment. Raider Nation feels disappointment. It’s tough to feel disappointment when your team makes the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. Yet, disappointment abounds.
The QB situation flat-out sucks. No indictment of McGloin — who is better than he showed on Sunday — or Cook, who looks potentially good. But Carr had this team confident, scoring in bunches and loving life.
The team that showed up in Denver wasn’t the 2016 Oakland Raiders. 2014, sure. 2015? Maybe even. But not this edition. The flat, lifeless bunch that sleepwalked through the first quarter was hard to watch, and very much anger-inducing.
When bad things happen in life, people are traumatized. The Raiders were traumatized on Sunday and hadn’t gotten over losing their leader. McGloin hits Cooper for that wide-open crossing TD and who knows what happens to the team’s confidence?
But he missed. And missed. And missed agian. The team’s head dipped lower, and lower. Game over, almost before it started.
Del Rio is too good of a coach and motivator to allow that to happen again. This team has a real chance to beat the Texans, who are suffering through their own QB woes. Of all the opponents the Raiders could’ve drawn, they match up with Houston the best.
The Raiders can create turnovers against the Texans. They can stifle their offense. The Texans under Savage haven’t been much better than they were under Osweiler. Lamar Miller isn’t 100%. This is a winnable game, even without Carr.
But the defense must step it up. Khalil Mack is a beast but was relatively quiet against Denver. They need him to create havoc in the backfield and open up lanes for Bruce Irvin and a newly returned Mario Edwards Jr.
The Texans have an excellent running game, and a terrible passing game. It’s key for the Raiders to stop the run early and force Savage/Osweiler to the air to beat them. The Texans don’t do well when that happens. Turnovers abound and teams get short fields. The Raiders thrive on that, and will need it with Cook under center.
For what it’s worth, in a Twitter poll posted on JBB, Raider Nation wants Cook to start. Overwhelmingly.
Can’t say I disagree based on the small sample size. Even Del Rio seems unsure at this point.
The Raiders were looking a year ahead of schedule in the grand scheme. Carr’s injury set them right back, but they are poised for greatness not only this season, but those to come. Despite the disappointment of Carr’s injury, it’s an exciting time in Raider Nation.
Jan 1, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) celebrates after a 37-27 win over the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City Chiefs
They won the division. They get a week off, and a home game. It feels like it should, by right, be the Raiders. But the Chiefs took care of business. They also took care of the Raiders twice, and thus earned the title. The Raiders win one of those games, they’re division champs. It’s that simple.
Carr is healthy, do the Raiders beat an extra-motivated Broncos team at home? That’s no guarantee. What is a guarantee is that the Chiefs beat the Chargers straight up.
Much as Raider Nation might not like it, and as much as KC may feel like the most hateable team in the NFL in 2016, they are the champions of the AFC West, with the bye and home game that goes with it.
I think the Raiders do beat Denver with Carr, and have the division title. But it wasn’t destined, and so the Chiefs look to avoid choking in the playoffs yet again. Oakland would love a third crack at them, but the Chiefs dismantled them twice WITH Carr. Without him, it’s a tough task.
The Chiefs have the pieces to challenge the Patriots, but if the Steelers beat the Dolphins this week, Pittsburgh matches up well with Kansas City.
Best case scenario is that the Steelers win and put up 60 on the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Not likely, but man would that be fun to watch.
The Chiefs aren’t as well set up for the immediate future as the Raiders. They have some relatively young playmakers on offense in Hill, Spencer Ware, and Travis Kelce. Smith still has many good years left. But their defense has some aging pieces in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali that will need to be replaced.
Derrick Johnson has torn both Achilles in the past three years and may be done. Again, there are some nice young pieces in Dee Ford, Marcus Peters, Chris Jones and Rakeem Nunez-Roches. But their defensive leaders and stalwarts are aging and soon out the door.
Raider fans can take solace in the fact that both the Chiefs as a franchise and Andy Reid as a coach have vastly underwhelmed in the playoffs throughout their careers, and have even done it together. The Chiefs need at least one win to shake the “chokers” mantle, and will be in tough against a Steelers team hitting their stride, if it comes to that.
Jan 1, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) celebrates after a play in the fourth quarter against the Oakland Raiders at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos won 24-6. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Denver Broncos
Pistol-whips some dude. Shoots himself at the club. Makes no apologies for trying to wrench Philly Brown’s head off in Super Bowl L. Gets in multiple on-field fights with opponents. Pushes around a teammate. Snatches Crabtree’s chain.
Aqib Talib is the #1 rated CB in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. No doubt he’s an A-1 player. He’s also probably the most immature, inflammatory player in the league. I get trying to get into your opponents’ head. But ripping a guy’s chain off? In your coach’s last game? Stay classy, Aqib.
Even Vontaze Burfict shook his head at that one.
The fact that there was no call on that play was a joke. Talib clearly did that on purpose with a giant smile, and you want to talk unsportsmanlike conduct? You call someone a chain-snatcher and see what happens. It’s not a compliment. It’s about as unsportsmanlike a thing one can do to another player.
It had little to do with the outcome of the game. Broncos fans cheer Talib for these actions, but it’s the wrong tone. It’s garbage-time football that gets you knocked out in a pickup game. Crabtree said it was a “business decision” not to retaliate and labelled Talib fake.
But he’s got a point. Crabtree could have punched him in the face and been justified. But he didn’t. He shouldn’t have let it get to him — but he did. That was the point, after all.
Anyway, the Broncos missed the playoffs a year after winning the Super Bowl which is really all that matters. During a late-season stretch they failed to run for more than 4 yards a carry in five straight games, and their vaunted defense got ran on more than Central Park jogging paths.
It’s been fun watching the Broncos lose and struggle on offense. Paxton Lynch hasn’t progressed much, Trevor Siemian seems to have reached his ceiling already, and there isn’t much out there on the market.
The Broncos thought they could win again without a QB, but that’s discounting how smart and effective Peyton Manning actually was in 2015. Did they miss him in 2016? Hell yes.
The Broncos have some good young pieces as well, but their offensive line and backfield need major help. C.J Anderson’s return next season will definitely help, but Russell Okung has always been overrated and repeatedly exposed this season. Michael Schofield and Donald Stephenson are turnstile-esque at times, and Schofield should be replaced.
This team also just lost its coach unexpectedly. That probably means that it’s time for Shanny redux, with Kyle Shanahan bringing his brilliant offensive mind over to Denver.
This is bad news for everyone else. If they retain Wade Phillips and their defensive staff, having a brilliant offensive mind to coalesce is a scary thing. But aside from Demaryius Thomas, Sanders and C.J. Anderson they don’t really have an offense.
Who knows what happens? We all remember the last time the Broncos hired a brilliant young offensive coach. That worked out well…for Tebow.
Jan 1, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates (85) walks off the field after a 37-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego Chargers
Couldn’t muster one more win in Qualcomm eh guys? In what was likely the last game for the Chargers in San Diego, they went out with a whimper 37-27 to the Chiefs to help KC win the division.
It’s not like they didn’t show up like the week before in Cleveland. The Chargers came out fired up and even scored first. The Chiefs are just better, and showed it for the rest of the game. Way it goes.
San Diego is a mess. They’ll return almost a full starting roster from IR next season, so drafting and free agency won’t be as effective as just getting healthy.
Danny Woodhead, Melvin Gordon, Branden Oliver, Keenan Allen, Jason Verrett, Brandon Flowers. That’s a top-tier RB, two excellent backup RBs, a top-tier WR, and two top-tier CBs all out. You add that in the draft and free agency to a team with offensive potential and a good QB and people start calling you a contender.
The Chargers will be better in 2017, regardless of where they play, simply by getting healthy. There are even more players who missed the year but those are the most significant currently on IR.
If they return all these players and have a good offseason, they could challenge for the division. But they, too, will have to do it with a new coach.
Mike McCoy is a good coach but a little too conservative. That safe playing cost the Chargers a few games early in the year as they failed to close out close games and shot themselves in the foot.
The Chargers need an aggressive coach to pair with Rivers, though that could be a disaster as well. They have some nice pieces on defense and rookie Joey Bosa will be great for a long time. He’s versatile in stopping the run and rushing the passer, and is at times downright unblockable.
Where do the Chargers end up next year? Back in San Diego, which is very unlikely? In LA, playing in front of 27,000 people at the StubHub centre before become Rams owner Stan Kroenke’s tenants in the shared LA venue?
Neither sound like great options, and it was almost sad to see the lone five or six signs at Qualcomm half-heartedly asking the Chargers to stay. This was no Raider Nation crashing the doors of Oakland city council on behalf of their beloved team. This was an always lukewarm fanbase golf-clapping their team into San Diego obscurity.
The Chargers will be better on the field in 2017, but which field and where? It’ll be hard to lure a top-tier coach to a team in transition both on and off the field and playing in a minor-league atmosphere. Double that difficulty for luring top-tier free agents.
Good luck with that, Chargers. Stay classy, San Diego.
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