Ranking the biggest concerns for each AFC East team in 2021
By Randy Mueller
Special to FOX Sports
Trust me, the general manager of your favorite NFL team is never completely happy with his roster or certain parts of his squad.
When I was building a team, the very idea that I would be completely satisfied with my roster was completely foreign to me.
To that end, with all 32 teams now settled into their 2021 training camps, this is the second in a series of previews on NFL teams, by division, and what about them would keep me up at night if I were their leader.
We started with the AFC North. Now let's break down the AFC East.
Throughout the process of building a potential playoff team, there are always roadblocks, detours and caution signs. As a GM, you’re always looking ahead. One element that is an undervalued organizational component is dealing with prosperity. It’s the concept of going forward and not looking back.
I remember having this exact conversation with Alabama’s Nick Saban after he won this third national championship in Tuscaloosa. My question was, "What do you do now, Coach?" Saban has figured out how to keep it fresh: He looks at each season as a process of a defined mindset.
Getting to the upper echelon of NFL teams is hard, but staying there is even harder. It’s the most impressive thing about what Chiefs coach Andy Reid has done in Kansas City. A return trip to the Super Bowl tells me that the Chiefs get it. Continued success is both a process and a mindset. How does a team react to having success? Do the players, coaches and executives work as hard? Do they remember the little things that got them there?
These are the internal battles that face the Bills and their leadership after two consecutive playoff berths. Of course, we have seen their talent and their growth, and now they have franchise QB Josh Allen signed long-term. On the surface, everything in Buffalo looks great.
For more up-to-date news on all things Bills, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
But the biggest question I have is: With the improvement across the AFC East, can the Bills deal with prosperity? They have enough talent to do so, so it's not a question of if they're good enough. It's more about their willingness to pay the same price that led to success over the past two seasons.
This franchise is now at the point where it’s about mindset and managing your team’s expectations once the green flag drops. Eliminating the ups and downs and any drama are aspects of team building that get very little attention, but that is what would have my attention if I were Bills GM Brandon Beane.
We all saw the reemergence of the single-wing offense, NFL style, in Foxborough last year. The lack of a true passing game set the forward pass back to pre-AFL standards. The Patriots featured a bottom-five passing attack and top-10 running game.
Whether it was Cam Newton’s lack of accuracy or receivers who couldn’t separate from coverage or catch the ball when they were open or just a lack of pass protection, the Patriots’ offense lacked any creativity to push the ball downfield or spread defenses out to NFL standards. They targeted shorter routes, and teams knew they could not spread the field.
Fact was, the Patriots did not trust the QB. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was limited to scheming an offense to a power-oriented run game. And the team’s best run option was its QB. This was the equivalent of a mad chemist in a lab wearing a strait jacket.
The Patriots ran out of options and adjustments fast. Over the course of a 16-game season (now 17), the best coaches — such as McDaniels and Bill Belichick — make smart adjustments to have their teams playing their best down the stretch. But the Pats were in a war with limited ammunition. Elementary throws became difficult, and not even the best run game can take all the pressure off a team’s passing ineptness.
Most insiders thought Belichick's safety net had always been QB Tom Brady. His proficiency and leadership had protected a subpar roster for the better part of 20 years. With Brady in Tampa, there was nobody on the Patriots' roster who could make up for poor drafts and lack of free-agent additions.
The Patriots lacked talent in all areas last season and needed a roster retool. Well — surprise, surprise — Belichick stepped to the plate as a wheeler and a dealer and a big spender. I actually think New England is one of the most improved teams in the league due to Belichick’s willingness to take advantage of his own salary-cap room and a deeper-than-ever pool of available talent. Belichick was even willing to draft a pocket passer in the first round of the draft.
For more up-to-date news on all things Patriots, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
I’m not a giant Mac Jones fan, but if he can prove to be the passer the Patriots believe he is — and their passing game can improve to just average — they will give the Bills all they want in what will be a much closer battle for AFC East supremacy than most people think.
After all, we already know Belichick can deal with prosperity, but this offseason, he has had to deal with adversity. After all his success in New England, who would bet against Belichick? Not me.
Any criticism of the QB in South Florida is seen as treason, but let’s deal with reality for once: Tua Tagovailoa has to play better. It has to start with his third-down conversion rate, and he must improve on a ranking of 31st in yards per pass thrown (6.3). You can’t live on check-downs in the NFL. Air yards per completion were 5.6 for Tua, compared to 6.8 when Ryan Fitzpatrick was in the game.
I’m going to overlook the fact that it’s difficult to follow the team-building plan of Miami's decision-makers. They spent more than $40 million in signing bonuses on certain players one year, then sent them away as part of a housecleaning plan the next. They drafted one Alabama player (Tua) with injury and durability questions one year, and as if they are playing with house money, they did it again this year with WR Jaylen Waddle.
The Dolphins have, without a doubt, upgraded their speed and explosive-play ability on offense. Teams will have to defend them differently because of it. However, throwing the ball downfield is not all about having fast guys. The QB has to be able to stand in the pocket, wait until just the right second, and deliver the ball on time down the field from within the chaos that is the pocket.
For more up-to-date news on all things Dolphins, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
As a team builder in the NFL, I have witnessed that the pocket is not for everyone. This was the concern I had about Tagovailoa coming out of college. Operating from the pocket means being able to take a hit and bounce back. Tua is going to have to stand tall and throw to receivers who are not "Alabama open," which happens seldom in the NFL. He is not big (6-foot, 217 pounds), he has not been durable, and I have not seen the thickness of his skin when it comes to taking criticism and leading.
I’m not saying he won't improve or that he can’t become a top-15 QB in the league. I’m just not willing to drink the Kool-Aid until we see it in his body of work. I’m rooting for him because he is a great kid, but the NFL is a big man’s game.
I get a chuckle when I read or hear that the Jets are in Year 1 of a rebuild. Actually, this is GM Joe Douglas’ third year at the helm, so an upgrade of depth should already have been taking place on his watch. It’s Douglas’ first season with coach Robert Saleh, but the GM has had three years to reshape this roster in his own vision. I don’t think it’s a lot to ask to expect progress.
Fans need to see progress, especially fans in New York City. And there is no better way to show them than to create some offense. But QB Zach Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick out of BYU, can't do it alone. This team was last in the league in both points per game (15.2) and yards per play (4.7) in 2020.
For more up-to-date news on all things Jets, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
I can appreciate the upgrades on the offensive line, but if the Jets don’t find a way to stretch defenses, they will go down in NFL annals as one of the slowest teams ever. In fact, the team's plodding offense reminds me of that electric football game I had as a kid, in which nobody could ever break out of the pack.
Trust me, the analytics bear this out as well. Yards per completion of 5.5 is a whole other level of grind-it-out passing.
If I were Douglas, I’d be worried about scoring from anywhere on the field. I’m not sure I see much offense with my perimeter or skilled position players currently. I know WR Jamison Crowder is fast, and I like the Corey Davis signing, but I’m not sure it’s enough.
Having to run 10-to-12 plays to score in the NFL is the equivalent of butting your head against the wall. It’s just too hard to consistently do that with success. I know they have big expectations for RB Michael Carter, their fourth-round pick out of North Carolina, but that's a lot to expect from a rookie.
A change in offensive systems should help, but I don’t see dynamic playmakers with this group. That's what worries me, especially with a rookie QB who can move and extend plays. That lack of speed out of the backfield and big-play ability are concerning to say the least. No doubt Carter is the key.
With Wilson in camp, the Jets can start to grow as an offense. How does the saying go: fail forward fast? Wilson needs every rep he can get, whether it is a live drill in practice or a two-minute drill in preseason. Working out in shorts at OTAs is far from the speed of the game he will see when the regular season hits.
Speaking of quarterbacking in general, the fact that this team is a Zach Wilson ankle sprain away from disaster would keep me awake at night as well. The Jets signed veteran QB Josh Johnson to help Wilson in the meeting rooms and fill in if something sets Wilson back. Johnson will be a good sounding board, but that's a last-resort-type move. Better QBs might be available at some point in the preseason.
It's not a matter of if the Jets will need one. It's more likely a matter of when.
Randy Mueller is the former general manager for the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. He spent more than 30 years working in NFL front offices as a talent evaluator. Follow him on Twitter or at muellerfootball.com.