AFC Divisional Playoff 2017, Texans vs Patriots: Preview and Prediction

By Fansided and Alan Schechter/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone
Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:51 p.m. ET

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

We are just one week away from the conference championships as the New England Patriots play host to the Houston Texans on Divisional Playoff weekend. A Saturday night in January means a cold night at Gillette Stadium for these two teams who met early in the regular season. Despite Tom Brady not starting, it was a shutout rout for the Patriots.

Things have changed greatly since then for both teams, though. The Texans have experience great woes in regards to their quarterback while Brady is back in the fold (with a vengeance) for New England.

According to Deepi Sidhu of Texans.com, Tom Savage is out of concussion protocol and will be active. He will back up Brock Osweiler, though, who will make the start after beating the Oakland Raiders last week.

To his credit, Osweiler looked at his sharpest, completing 56 percent of his passes, not turning the ball over and posting a 90.1 passer rating. Of course, that was against an Oakland team who looked deflated on both sides of the ball following the loss of starting quarterback Derek Carr to injury. Replicating the same effort against the Patriots will be a much taller task.

Let’s look at how these two teams arrived here in Foxborough.

Jan 1, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick looks over the field during the second half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Patriots won 35-14. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

How New England Got Here

New England got to this one by doing, well, Patriots things. They were simply dominant in 2016 from start to finish. Even without their all-world quarterback for the first four games they went 3-1. With Belichick at the helm there seems to be no obstacles New England can’t conquer. In 2008 they lost Tom Brady for the year to a knee injury and still went 11-5. In 2016 Brady missed the first four games due to suspension, and the train kept rolling along.

Let’s not forget the MVP-caliber year that Brady had upon returning. Despite only playing in 12 games, he won 11, threw for 28 touchdowns versus only two interceptions, and completed more than 67% of his passes. In the one game he lost, Brady still posted a passer rating of above 90. His number for the year was 112.2

That’s not too shabby for a 39-year-old guy that was picked 199th in the draft.

All of that plus an improved defense led to a 14-2 record, taking the AFC East crown once again by a wide margin. The division has belonged to New England seemingly since Belichick and Brady walked in the door and it shows no signs of stopping.

Jan 7, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (90) celebrates a victory against the Oakland Raiders in the AFC Wild Card playoff football game at NRG Stadium. The Texans beat the Raiders 27-14. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

How Houston Got Here

Houston made its way to the playoffs by taking the AFC South crown with a 9-7 record. Despite losing to the Titans in eek 17, the Texans earned the division title by virtue of tiebreakers. They finished the last quarter of the season winning three out of their four final games. The year saw Brock Osweiler sent to the bench in favor of Tom Savage, but Savage was hurt in week 17 and remained in concussion protocol last week.

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    Osweiler remains the starter as Savage has been cleared from protocol. Savage will back Osweiler up, and frankly, Osweiler earned it after his performance against the Raiders last week. He didn’t put up gaudy numbers but he played mistake-free football which is how you get the job done in the postseason.

    The Texans have survived with a strong defense. Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus combined for 13.5 sacks, and Benardrick McKinney added five to a defense that was ranked first in the league. Don’t forget, they did all without the services of J.J. Watt, who was lost to injury. Even without Carr for Oakland, the Houston defense was still the difference-makers in that matchup. They’ll have to be even better, but will need to lead the way to pull off the upset in the Divisional Round.

    Dec 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots center David Andrews (60) and offensive guard Joe Thuney (62) and tackle Nate Solder (77) line up to protect New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

    New England Keys to Victory

    New England has had their way with nearly every defense they have faced all season. It happens that way when a team wins 14 games. The X-factor in this one is the aforementioned Jadeveon Clowney. Last week he was a wrecking ball. There weren’t a lot of numbers on the stat sheet, but the “eye” test showed him in the backfield all day long. That freed up Whitney Mercilus to post two sacks of his own. The offensive line is going to have to come up big.

    Bill Belichick has made a career, from his days as an assistant right up to today, taking away his opponent’s best weapon. On this day, he must eliminate DeAndre Hopkins. Look for Osweiler to lean on his top target, and Hopkins has had some success against New England. In three previous meetings, he has recorded nine receptions and averaged over 61 yards per game.

    Moreover, the Patriots will have to stay the course of running the ball well and frequently with LeGarrette Blount. If Brady pulls ahead, New England likely isn’t too scared of Osweiler. But they can even eliminate the possibility of him burning the them by controlling the game with their rushing attack. If it gets to that point and they’re able to continue their success in that regard, it’s goodnight for the Texans.

    In other words, New England must continue to do what they do every week.

    Jan 7, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel after the game against the Oakland Raiders in the AFC Wild Card playoff football game at NRG Stadium. The Texans beat the Raiders 27-14. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

    Houston Keys to Victory

    The biggest key to this game for Houston? The man in the picture above, Texans defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel. He has worked with Bill Belichick when they were assistants, and he worked for him in New England early in the Belichick era. If you are looking for a defensive coordinator that is familiar with the Patriots—other than from AFC East teams—Crennel might just be the best choice.

    He is going to have to figure out a way to get pressure on Brady, especially up the middle. Through the years, Brady has had the toughest time when facing pressure up the middle. Ask Rex Ryan; he’s got some time on his hands these days. Whenever his Jets teams beat or even gave the rival Patriots trouble, they were successful getting to Brady up the middle.

    If they don’t do that, it won’t matter what they do on the offensive side of the ball. They will not be able to keep up with Brady and the scoring machine. They have to slow them down, and that means make the quarterback uncomfortable. That same pressure up the middle will be key when defending the run. The Patriots can control the game and clock with LeGarrette Blount if he gets going on the ground, so staying solid up the gut will again be key.

    Jan 1, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick on the field after an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Patriots won 35-14. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

    Prediction

    The Texans played a solid game last week. The defense was strong and the offense played mistake-free football. We have seen it before—defense wins championships. Seattle has paved that road to the Super Bowl and Denver just did it last year. If last week was any indication, the Texans are executing a formula that has been successful for many Super Bowl champions. Could this lead to the upset?

    With that said, Tom Brady and company have done this before, and quite proficiently. They live in the postseason and thrive when they play at home. They have had this past week to rest up and prepare for their opponent. Could the week off back fire, and leave them rusty, opening the door for Houston?

    That ultimately still seems to be a bit of a reach, as the Texans have a steep hill to climb to win this one. The Texans aren’t going to be able to do it. Belichick, Brady and the rest of the Pats are far too loaded, well-coached and dangerous for Houston to handle. New England takes this one and it’s not going to be close.

    Prediction: Houston Texans: 14, New England Patriots: 35