Why Aaron Rodgers' Packers return means you should bet on the Vikings
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
When you work in a sportsbook trading room, you’re always on your toes.
Bookmakers are constantly calculating, calibrating and maneuvering betting markets and they do it all while balancing thousands of dollars of risk and liability. The job requires quick decision-making and the ability to react to breaking news.
Things still tend to go haywire, though, when something unexpected happens.
As the Aaron Rodgers offseason rollercoaster rounded the banked corner of resentment and briefly dipped into a retirement loop over the last handful of days, bookmakers around the country tried to figure out what to do with the Green Bay Packers.
Some took the Packers season win total off the board and ceased action on the NFC North divisional betting markets. Others made some quick changes and continued to take bets. It’s really a matter of house preference.
"It’s tough, because you don’t know when news is going to break," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me. "You might set odds that you’re happy with at 3 p.m., and you finish your shift, and something changes late at night. That’s how it goes sometimes.
"We ended up taking down the NFC North season win totals and the entire division market over the weekend. There wasn’t loads of value to be had by keeping that stuff up when we had absolutely no clue what was going to happen next."
Now that Rodgers is officially at Packers camp, the guessing game is over as far as who he’ll play for in the upcoming season. And that means that the markets are back online when it comes to all the Green Bay-related wagers.
FOX Bet is currently dealing the Green Bay season win total at over/under 10.5 wins, with slight -120 juice to the "Over." (For some context, a couple sportsbooks were offering O/U 7.5 or 8 wins after the retirement rumors broke – and remember, this will be a 17-game season, not the 16-game slate we're all used to when analyzing win totals).
The Packers are a -162 betting favorite in the NFC North, -250 to make the playoffs, +650 to win the NFC and 15-to-1 to win Super Bowl LVI.
"When reports surfaced that Rodgers might retire, it proved how much juice he has in betting circles," JBB explained.
"We saw some of the division prices jump, and some firms moved the Vikings out to the favorite. We didn’t buy that. We figured the Packers would still be an ever-so-slight favorite, but it was a really tight one.
"And look what the Week 1 line has done. The Packers were three-point dogs to the Saints for weeks. People were starting to believe that Rodgers might not play in Green Bay this season. Then he finally shows up to camp, and the Packers are now a two-point favorite.
"Five points is a pretty big swing, and I think the line continues to move in that direction."
There’s been plenty of green and gold support at FOX Bet all week, but the most notable cash flow showed for Rodgers winning his fourth NFL Most Valuable Player award.
"That was the big thing as soon as reports broke that he was coming back," JBB reported. "It probably stems from people thinking he’s going to have a season like he did last year. People think they’ll get that fired up Rodgers who wanted out and maybe only has one more chance to win a Super Bowl there.
"We’ve got Rodgers at 10-to-1 right now to win the MVP."
All this Super Bowl and MVP talk has me searching for ways to circumvent the hype train. The Packers are a solid football team, sure, but they’re far from invincible. They’re not even a lock to win their own division (but we'll get to that in a moment).
And with the Rodgers window closing quickly in Green Bay, pressure will continue to rise around the Land of Cheese. We’ll find out soon enough if the Packers are ready to keep the pipes from bursting.
"Green Bay has been very good for a long time, but it’s been a decade since its last Super Bowl appearance," JBB said. "They’ve got some vulnerabilities. We saw some issues last year on the defensive side, especially among the defensive backs. It’ll also be interesting to see how things work out in the locker room. Rodgers has been openly frustrated about being in Green Bay, and that could rub his teammates the wrong way.
"All that said, I think when you look at the NFC picture, it’s potentially as open as it’s been for the Packers in the playoffs. The Buccaneers are still there and they brought everybody back, but you’re not as worried about the Seahawks and Saints anymore, and the NFC East is just a mess."
Blangsted-Barnor did say he would only make the Packers a two-point favorite on a neutral field against the Minnesota Vikings. That right there tells you that the two teams are closer than you think.
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I’m foaming at the mouth at the Vikings +250 to win the NFC North. Count me in with Dalvin Cook and that offensive line, a strong home-field advantage, more weapons for Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter back on the defensive line. Minnesota was truly lost without him on the defensive line last year.
"The Vikings are definitely good enough to compete," JBB opined. "They’ve absolutely got a chance to win the division. As do the Bears if things can break right for them and they turn to Justin Fields before it’s too late. But when you look at the Vikings and how we have them rated, they’re not that far behind the Packers. Minnesota also has a much easier schedule, too, so they should benefit from that as well.
"If you look at the rosters on paper, Green Bay has the best in the division. But it’s not like there’s nobody near them."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.