8 things we learned in the 2023 NFL season: How did teams miss on Lamar Jackson (again)?

The 2023 NFL regular season has come and gone. It was full of surprises, new developments, fresh stories — and fascinating portents for what comes next.

The FOX Sports NFL writing staff broke down eight key things we learned during this campaign, and what they could mean for the future.

1. Tua's big deal is coming. But late-season struggles could complicate negotiations

Mike McDaniel has praised Tua Tagovailoa effusively, going back to when McDaniel took over as head coach in 2022. At that point, McDaniel touted Tua as the most accurate passer in the NFL. And since that point, we've seen why McDaniel admires Tua's game. McDaniel's system is quarterback-friendly. But it's also a perfect match for Tua's skills.

The quarterback places the ball well and plays well on time. The one knock going into the season for Tua was his injury history. Last year, the main problem was concussions. They were so severe that it was fair to wonder whether he could make it through a full season. Well, Tua has only missed snaps because his offense has obliterated some of its lesser opponents. In those lopsided games, the Dolphins have called the bullpen for backup Mike White.

Tua's health has been as much of a reason to retain him as his elite play.

 "It's significant for the organization, but more importantly, it's significant for the player," McDaniel said when asked Wednesday about Tua's good health.

This isn't to say that Tua is actually healthy. He was listed on the injury report with left shoulder and quad injuries. It's just that those injuries haven't held him out of games.

"It's a big deal for a football team when we have the leader that has the ball every play is in the same and he's toughing out things," McDaniel said Wednesday of Tagovailoa who practiced and played through a shoulder injury in Week 18. "He tries to exude toughness in any opportune time and he's really willing to do whatever it takes. I mean, case in point, he had issues with hitting his head on the ground, so he took jiu-jitsu and spent a lot of hours of his life training so that he could be proactive and preventative. Not everyone's doing that."

Nope. And not everyone is throwing for 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns with just 14 interceptions. He completed 69.3% of his passes.

It has been one heck of a season for the Dolphins QB.

Tua has committed himself in unique ways to the Dolphins organization. It's time for Miami to commit to him financially. If the Dolphins wanted, they could drag their feet through the fifth-year option (in 2024) and their franchise tag (in 2025). 

Why might the Dolphins drag their feet? Well, look at the fourth quarter of Tua's film against the Bills. Tagovailoa wilted under pressure. He actually gets more aggressive in his decision-making, but it's when his limitations show the most. He's impatient and forces the ball into windows where it doesn't belong. Fourth-quarter awareness should be a skill that comes with time. But because he doesn't have it yet, the Dolphins might want to walk down his price — certainly below an elite pocket passer like Joe Burrow ($55 million in average annual value). Maybe they look at Dak Prescott's current deal, which has his AAV at $40 million, and feel like that's the jumping off point for negotiations. —Henry McKenna

2. Teams made a huge error passing on Lamar Jackson last spring

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the heavy favorite to become only the 11th player in NFL history to win multiple MVP awards. But few teams showed interest in securing his services when he was available this offseason.

Of course, the Ravens applied the franchise tag to their franchise quarterback, giving them the ability to match any takers and receive two first-round selections should a team sign Jackson to an offer sheet to consummate a trade.

Still, it's somewhat surprising, in a league that has few game-changing players at the most important position, that no one stepped up to test how far the Ravens would go to keep Jackson in the fold. Particularly after Jackson publicly asked for a trade.

The Carolina Panthers traded two first-round picks, a second-rounder and receiver DJ Moore to the Chicago Bears for the right to draft Bryce Young No. 1 overall. The Panthers finished a league-worst 2-15 in Young's rookie season, with owner David Tepper firing head coach Frank Reich midway through 2023 and GM Scott Fitterer at season's end. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft belongs to Chicago.

Fit certainly had something to do with Jackson staying in Baltimore. The Ravens brought in a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken and built their offense around Jackson's unique skill set.

Any team seeking to trade for Jackson and pay him big money would have to do the same to maximize his explosive playmaking ability.

Along with that, Jackson fits the blue-collar ethos of the Ravens, built by head coach John Harbaugh.

Another sticking point was Jackson's reported wish to receive a fully guaranteed contract like the $230 million deal Deshaun Watson signed with the Cleveland Browns.

Potential suitors like Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay indicated they did not believe in signing players to fully guaranteed contracts. Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank lamented the salary-cap issues building a team with a high-dollar contract like Jackson would command, having done that previously with Matt Ryan.

Jackson ultimately signed a five-year, $260 million contract that included $185 million in guarantees soon after Jalen Hurts inked a similarly structured deal. Jackson then proceeded to make the rest of the league pay for not securing his services, leading the Ravens to a league-best 13-3 record and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Jackson still must prove he can win in the postseason. The Ravens have not advanced past the divisional round in the playoffs under the direction of Jackson, and Baltimore has a 1-3 playoff record with the Florida native as the starter. —Eric D. Williams

3. The Bears have a huge opportunity. What have recent No. 1 overall picks done?

The Chicago Bears have a decision to make with the first overall pick… again. They inherited this one due to an offseason trade with the Carolina Panthers prior to the 2023 NFL Draft. That could make for one of the most unique situations we've ever seen.

Chicago has the pick of the litter in a stacked quarterback class… without actually being a bad team.

Yes, even following their Week 18 loss to their bitterest rivals in the Green Bay Packers, the Bears have a talented roster. They boasted a top-five defense by the end of the regular season and more than doubled their win total from last season, finishing 7-10. They have a general manager who has equipped the roster with young talent mixed with veterans and they have the cap space to finish off a multi-year rebuild as soon as this offseason.

The question remains whether they use that first overall pick to select a quarterback, starting the clock over on the richest position, or stick with the guy they have, further betting on his upside when a fifth-year option and long-term contract are right around the corner

For argument's sake, let's say the Bears do deal Justin Fields and opt to take Caleb Williams, widely considered among league circles to be a ‘no-brainer' as the top quarterback in the class. What are the odds the Heisman winner pans out for an organization starved of signal-calling talent?

Let's look at the recent history of the pick.

2023: QB Bryce Young, Alabama (Panthers)

2022: Edge Travon Walker, Georgia (Jaguars)

2021: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Jaguars)

2020: QB Joe Burrow, LSU (Bengals)

2019: QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma (Cardinals)

2018: QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (Browns)

2017: Edge Myles Garrett, Texas A&M (Browns)

2016: QB Jared Goff, Cal (Rams)

2015: QB Jameis Winston, Florida State (Buccaneers)

2014: Edge Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina (Texans)

Those are the last 10 years. For this exercise, let's classify them as hit, miss or to be determined. I'll classify hits as players who have been to the playoffs and/or are considered franchise players for their clubs, misses as not up to that standard. 

2023: QB Bryce Young - TBD

2022: Edge Travon Walker – MISS

2021: QB Trevor Lawrence – TBD

2020: QB Joe Burrow – HIT

2019: QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma – TBD

2018: QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – HIT/MISS

2017: Edge Myles Garrett – HIT

2016: QB Jared Goff – HIT

2015: QB Jameis Winston – MISS

2014: Edge Jadeveon Clowney – MISS

Right off the bat, 40% of the first-overall picks from the last decade worked out if you include Mayfield, who seems to have found a home in Tampa and led them to the playoffs and a third-straight division title in his first year with the team. Mayfield also led the Browns to their first playoff win in 26 years in his third season with Cleveland. Ask any Browns fan at the time; he was worth that first pick just on that alone. If Young, Lawrence or Murray end up ultimately working out for their respective teams (or with another), the success rate could climb as high as 70%. Or it could stay firmly at 40%.  

Bring it back to the Bears this year — and a prospect in Williams who's as well regarded as any rookie quarterback. Is the chance he works out to be as good or better than Fields better than the chance the Fields works out to warrant a $40-$50 million contract in 2026?

That's the question. —Carmen Vitali

4. Barkley, Giants might be headed for a necessary offseason split

When Saquon Barkley walked off Metlife Field on Sunday evening at the end of another lost season, he said he didn't get wistful or nostalgic. He did not think that it could have been his last game with the New York Giants.

But he knows it might be.

Even though Barkley has said many times that he wants to be a "Giant for life," the reality is that both he and the team might be better off parting ways this offseason. Barkley turned down a two-year offer last summer with a guaranteed $22 million, and it's unlikely the Giants will offer more for a running back who soon turns 27 and has been plagued by injuries. And Barkley has made it clear he doesn't want another franchise tag for $12.1 million.

Finding a compromise feels increasingly improbable, especially since Barkley wasn't much of an impact player this season. He ran for just 962 yards and missed three games early in the season with a sprained ankle. He topped 100 rushing yards only once. And he was even less impactful as a receiver, with just 41 catches for 280 yards.

Not that it was all his fault. Most of the blame belongs to the Giants' offensive line and quarterback issues. But as much as the Giants and their fans love Barkley, the team would be better off using his considerable cap hit on rebuilding their offensive line — the only hope they have of ever establishing an actual rushing attack. And Barkley would be better off finding a team with a strong line and an offensive coordinator creative enough to use him in the passing game the way he was as a rookie when he caught 91 passes for 721 yards.

"Does a fresh start cross my mind? I guess anybody when you look at the season, the way it went, I feel like everybody would want a fresh start," he said last week. "Not just saying somewhere else, but just a clean slate. That's how I look at it to be honest."

It would be a shame if he does leave, given how popular Barkley is in New York and how much promise he's shown since he was drafted second overall in 2018. But after six years in New York he's no closer to a championship or a big pay day. And he knows that "if I'm going to strike, I have to do it now. This is probably my last opportunity to get a second deal."

Given the current state of the running back market, he might not land the kind of contract he wants somewhere else, either. But maybe if he got something that matched the Giants' last offer, but in a better situation, it could pay huge dividends in the end. —Ralph Vacchiano

5. Offenses had their way for a long time, but defenses have struck back

Scoring topped out at a league-high average of 24.8 points per game in 2020, but steadily declined since and finished at 21.8 points per game on average this season, the lowest number since 2017.

NFL analysts and coaches have pointed to a rash of injuries at the quarterback position, the dearth of talented offensive linemen who can protect those green quarterbacks from explosive edge rushers and defenses using more two-high safety looks to limit explosive plays, encouraging offenses to run the football.

However, Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay just views it as the up-and-down nature of football, with defenses — at least for now — getting the upper hand on game days.

"It's a cyclical league and defenses do a great job," McVay said. "There's inventory and ways of studying the game. I think they've done a great job of limiting some of the big plays, but I just think it's a back-and-forth battle. There's great coaches and great players, and they make it as competitive as possible.

"I can't really divulge into why I think it's down significantly or how much the trends are different, but I just think there's great competitiveness week in, and week out. And I think there's great parity." —Williams

6. Packers' QB succession system works, but is it realistic for any other franchise?

The 2019 Green Bay Packers lost the NFC Championship Game to the San Francisco 49ers. They were so close. If they had another edge rusher, perhaps, to get more than one sack on Jimmy Garappolo, or another receiver to take attention off Davante Adams, maybe things would be different the following season.

What did general manager Brian Gutekunst do in the first round of the following draft?

Well, he didn't take a receiver. We know that. No, he took quarterback Jordan Love out of Utah State. Not only that, he traded up four spots to select Love at No. 26 overall. Packers fans lost their ever-loving social media minds. Aaron Rodgers had strong opinions.

But there was a plan — a strategy Green Bay has employed for decades — and Packers brass, from Gutekunst to head coach Matt LaFleur and team president Mark Murphy were all aligned.

There was also no overbearing owner to answer to — the Packers are owned by their shareholders.

In a league with a shorter leash on coaches, players and executives that needs an increasingly immediate return on investment, the Packers spent a first-round pick they planned to patient with. They still had future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers under center; a QB who would win MVP in 2020 and 2021.

They aren't the first team to let their starter sit. We've seen it work before. Perhaps the poster child for that strategy in recent years in Patrick Mahomes, who sat for almost his entire first season in the league behind Alex Smith. The very next season, his first as the full-time starter, Mahomes led the league with 50 touchdowns. He hit the ground running in Andy Reid's complex and innovative offense. Mahomes won MVP and took the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game. It's a great strategy, if you can afford to do it.

But the reality is most organizations can't. Quarterbacks are too expensive to risk wasting precious team-controlled contracts letting them develop on the bench. There's usually pressure from the ‘powers that be' to take advantage of that time.

Not in Green Bay, Wisc., though. These are the patient ones. These are also the spoiled ones, used to three decades of elite quarterback play. Their organization has rarely led them astray, so they trust it. And though the Packers are a national brand, they maintain a small-town feel.

That's perhaps the only reason a strategy of routinely drafting a quarterback's replacement and letting him ride the bench for multiple seasons not only works, but is even allowed.

And as long as it keeps working, Green Bay isn't changing a thing. —Vitali

7. It took a while, but the Saints finally got the Derek Carr they paid for

The Saints came up a win short of winning the NFC South, missing a wild card by a tiebreaker, but after a long rough patch, quarterback Derek Carr finished his 2023 season looking like the guy they brought to New Orleans on a huge contract.

Carr had four touchdowns and no interceptions in the Saints' 48-17 throttling of the Falcons, and in their 3-1 finish, he threw 12 touchdowns against only one interception to lead the way. He ended up with a higher quarterback rating than Baker Mayfield — albeit a bargain for the Bucs by comparison — and finished the year with 25 touchdowns against eight interceptions while throwing for 3,878 yards.

"It feels great," Carr said after Sunday's win. "The last half of the year, I think we were doing some really good things. We were building a lot of yards, getting better in the red zone, and converting our third downs. I felt like today was just the icing on top of the cake. There was

so much hard work put in, and it all came together at one time today. The team wanted to give the fans a good send off if we didn't get another home game in the postseason."

A month ago, Carr's contract looked like another deal that would complicate the Saints' salary-cap problems, born from years of borrowing against future seasons to fit more under the current cap. His deal boils down to a two-year, $70 million contract, meaning New Orleans could walk away from him after next season, but given their predicament, already further over the 2024 salary cap than any other team, they could turn to him for cap relief.

Carr has a $30 million base salary in 2024, and the Saints could convert that to a minimum salary and a bonus that can be pro-rated for cap purposes. Doing so means that moving on from him after next season would create significant cap damage. It will be much harder to get under the cap between now and March without restructuring Carr's deal, but it's possible. —Greg Auman

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8. The Lions built unconventionally. But they were right all along

Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes took a lot of heat for his 2023 draft class, his third since taking over the post in 2021. A running back at No. 12 overall? An inside linebacker six picks later? Then there was taking Sam LaPorta as the first tight end off the board in the second round when many had Michael Mayer as the runner-up to the first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid.

The jokes continued all offseason. Most draft analysts slammed the Lions with failing grades. The only redeeming pick seemed to be that somehow the Lions stole safety Brian Branch, who many considered a first-round talent, in the second round.

Sometimes you just have to draft good players, man.

Following the conclusion of the 2023 regular season, Detroit is the first team since the merger to have 10-plus rushing touchdowns and 10-plus receiving touchdowns from a rookie class thanks to No. 12 overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs and the aforementioned LaPorta, per Lions PR. The latter has also broken the NFL record for receptions by a rookie tight end set by Keith Jackson in 1988. LaPorta became one of just three rookies ever to produce a season with over 75 catches and over 10 receiving touchdowns. The other two? Ja'Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. LaPorta's 10 touchdowns tied Rob Gronkowski's rookie total, and LaPorta surpassed the future Hall of Famer in both yards and catches.

Meanwhile, Gibbs is part of a running-back tandem that became the first in NFL history to both have over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 10 or more rushing touchdowns on the season each. Gibbs joined Barry Sanders and Billy Sims as the only Lions rookies to rush for 10 or more touchdowns in a season. Detroit's 27 touchdowns on the ground also established a new franchise record.

Inside linebacker Jack Campbell, while not heavy on stats, played his best game of the season against the Vikings in Week 18, according to Dan Campbell. The rookie Campbell led the team in tackles with 12 and registered a sack and a tackle for loss. It was Campbell's second sack of the season and he finished with 95 combined tackles, which ranked second on the team.

Meanwhile, Branch lived up to his hype and then some. He finished second on the team in tackles for loss with seven. He finished second on the team in interceptions with three, and will be among the frontrunners for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Sometimes you just have to draft good players, man.

There are two main philosophies when it comes to draft strategy: drafting for need and drafting the best player available regardless of need. Most general managers deploy a combination of the two, but the Lions are firmly in the best-player-available category. It's something Holmes has stuck firmly to, no matter how much it gets him laughed at by some members of the media and maybe even some colleagues.

It also has the Lions sitting atop the division for the first time in three decades and about to host a playoff game.

Detroit may have had the right idea all along. —Vitali

This story was compiled by:

NFC South reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
AFC East reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFC West reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFC East reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)