5 NFL futures bets to make right now
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NFL Hall of Fame game is less than three weeks away.
How’s that for an attention-getter? We’re already halfway through July, and the regular season will be here before you know it.
Last month, we discussed my five favorite season win totals, and now, it’s time to attack the futures markets over at FOX Bet.
Here are five more NFL bets I’m ready to make right now.
Chiefs +500 to win Super Bowl (bet $10 to win $60 total)
You might remember this pick from back in April, immediately after the NFL Draft. Kansas City was +550 to win the whole enchilada back then (bet $10 to win $65 total), so the price has shortened a little bit. And that’s OK.
I’ve made this bet two years in a row because it has a way of putting you in great position to make a profit. The Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV, and they were three-point favorites in Super Bowl LV against Tampa Bay. Anybody holding a preseason Chiefs ticket could’ve taken the Buccaneers +3 or the moneyline and guaranteed a profit. Odds are good you'll be in a similar position this postseason in either the AFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl.
As long as Patrick Mahomes stays healthy, the Chiefs are going to be surefire Super Bowl contenders, and they’ll likely finish with a No. 1 or 2 seed in the AFC. If that comes to fruition, Kansas City will be around +200 to win it all, and from there, you can do what you have to do.
Bills -154 to win AFC East (bet $10 to win $16.49 total)
This one feels like a slam dunk. Buffalo won the division by three games last year, and the Bills should be even better this year. A -154 favorite implies just better than a 60% chance. Even that number seems low.
Quarterback play is everything in the NFL, and Josh Allen is clearly the best signal-caller in the AFC East. There’s not a close second, given the competition: Cam Newton is a shell of his former self; Tua Tagovailoa is about to get exposed (more on that in a second); and Zach Wilson is a rookie.
I’ve got the Bills going 5-1 in the AFC East because they’re just too damn good on both sides of the ball. And I’m a big fan of Allen in what could be an MVP-caliber campaign. A weak division aligns the stars for a special season in Buffalo. I refuse to overthink this one.
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Cowboys +110 to win NFC East (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Come on.
If the Cowboys can’t win the division this year, heads will roll. It would be a total, unmitigated disaster. I also love my math at +110 because odds are good that this is a two-horse race between Dallas and Washington (+260). Philadelphia and New York just aren’t ready to win yet.
Dak Prescott is reportedly in incredible shape as he continues to recover from the gruesome ankle injury he suffered in the Cowboys’ fifth game last season. At the time, Prescott was completing a career-best 68% of his passes, and he was on pace for more than 6,000 passing yards.
Dallas went with defensive players (Micah Parsons, Kelvin Joseph) to fill some much-needed holes in the first two rounds of April’s NFL Draft, so that will help here. But in all reality, Prescott’s presence and ability to sustain drives will be even more important when it comes to team balance.
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
This price simply won't be available when Aaron Rodgers doesn’t get dealt to Denver.
Sorry for the double negative. I never really believed that rumor anyway, but there’s definitely some weirdness in the market based on that possibility. Some bettors have made positions on Denver futures solely because of hope that Rodgers winds up there.
So when No. 12 either stays in Green Bay or retires, money will undoubtedly move to the Chargers. That’s the way this racket works; there’s always a ripple effect.
I’m already invested in "Over" 9.5 wins on the Bolts, and I think their offensive and defensive lines are strong enough to transform Los Angeles into a sneaky playoff team that might even win a postseason game. Justin Herbert was damn impressive last season, with more than 4,300 passing yards and 31 touchdowns. And let’s not forget that Joey Bosa started only 10 games.
For my money, Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore and Cleveland are the only AFC teams that are locks to be better than Los Angeles. That leaves three playoff berths for L.A. to battle Indianapolis, Tennessee and New England for.
I’ll take my chances.
Miami Dolphins to win fewer than 9.5 games (-150; bet $10 to win 16.67 total)
Yes, I know I said we were looking at futures bets here, but this is one we just can't pass up.
Let’s be real – Miami’s surprise 2020 season mostly happened because the Patriots were a train wreck. We knew Tom Brady’s departure would severely change things in Foxboro, but nobody expected it to be that bad.
We spoke about ripple effects earlier, and that’s exactly what happened for the Dolphins. They were the direct benefactors of New England’s lack of talent and New York’s total incompetence. Well, Bill Belichick wrote some big checks in the offseason, and the Jets’ front office moved on from Adam Gase and Sam Darnold. Both of those teams should be notably better this season.
My main thesis on this "Under" is that I don’t trust the Dolphins to win 10 games with Tua as the guy. Remember, Miami frequently took Tagovailoa out late in games in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The training wheels are long gone with Fitzpatrick in Washington.
The Dolphins' defense will remain a very strong unit, but with a full year of tape on him, Tagovailoa has to take a substantial leap for his team to get anywhere near this win total. Until I see it, I don’t believe it.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.