5 best bets for Week 2 NFL games

The inaugural week of NFL games came and went with few surprises. With Week 2 approaching, several contests stand out for those gamblers looking for some action.

Although the season is young, Vegas waits for no one. And although I in fact waited a week, allow me to introduce you a new weekly segment.

The experts at sports betting site FiftyFourPercent.com have shared with me some insights on five particular matchups against the spread that bettors should consider. Interestingly enough, this week’s picks comprise of three intradivisional games. Several feature teams many have predicted to reach Super Bowl 51 in Houston, including two looking to recover from disappointing losses in Week 1. It also includes four favorites and one upset selection.

As for me? I’m just a guy who loves football and loves gambling but often struggles to succeed when putting the two together. However, that’s never stopped me before from trying, albeit terribly at times (like this piece last season), or with my latest vice of Daily Fantasy Leagues (like this one).

You could even call me the Norv Turner of betting columns: I come up short more often than not, yet still somehow remain employed.

In this go round, I’ve decided to take the coward’s way out: Let the experts say expert things and make expert predictions, while I just fill in the extra required content and occasionally second-guess the decision. If I sign off on a win, I’ll share the credit. If the pick falls short? Well, I can simply pass the buck.

I can’t lose if I don’t put myself completely out there, right? I know, genius.

Jan 12, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) runs against San Francisco 49ers inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman (53) during the second half of the 2013 NFC divisional playoff football game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina Panthers(-13.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

FiftyFourPercent:

This is the biggest mismatch of the season so far, made worse for the 49ers by the scheduling dynamics that greatly favor Carolina.

Chip Kelly will try to have his team throw a lot of short underneath passes against Carolina’s rookie cornerbacks, who figure to be in lots of Cover-2 zone coverage. The Panthers have extra days from having opened the season this past Thursday and are boiling about blowing a double-digit lead to the Broncos in their Super Bowl rematch. Carolina has overwhelming edges at nearly every position, and its passing attack is stronger with Kelvin Benjamin back for Cam Newton. The 49ers are traveling on a short week after hosting the Rams this past Monday night.

Glauser:

I was all for this line until Monday night happened. The Panthers will still likely win by two touchdowns over the Niners, but the latter team may not be as inept as we once thought.

Yes, the 28-0 drubbing was at the hands of an even more inept Los Angeles Rams squad, but the 49er defense had the best statistical outing of any unit in the league last week, holding Case Keenum to a paltry 34.2 QB Rating to go along with allowing just 2.8 yards per carry.

But the Panthers ain’t the Rams. And with the likes of Newton, Jonathan Stewart and the rejuvenated Benjamin, they surely won’t be shut out. And after a gut punch loss to the Broncos to kick off the season, a chip on Carolina’s shoulder should far outweigh a Chip on San Fran’s sideline.

Sep 29, 2013; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Arizona Cardinals defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-10. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals

FiftyFourPercent:

The Cardinals have lots of firepower, but they had what turned out to be an easy schedule last season, catching a lot of opponents at a good time. The Buccaneers, by contrast, are underrated and dangerous against a more finesse opponent such as this. Carson Palmer is 36 and not exactly inspiring a high degree of confidence after being picked off seven times during the final three games of last season. Arizona was unimpressive in August and struggled at home Week 1 against the Patriots, who were missing Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Pro Bowl offensive left tackle Nate Solder.

The Buccaneers averaged four sacks per game in the preseason. They have one of the NFL’s more respected defensive coordinators, Mike Smith, and more defensive line depth than in previous seasons. Only nine teams yielded fewer yards per game than the Buccaneers last season. Second-year man Jameis Winston had an outstanding rookie season, passing for more than 4,000 yards. He should be even better this year bolstered by having a rejuvenated Mike Evans and a healthy Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

Glauser:

Another contending NFC team coming off another heartbreaking loss to start the season. Another conference foe that may be better than expected. However, I’m not as down on the Cardinals. Bruce Arians is one of the best in the game at getting his players ready for battle, a respectable defense got even more dangerous with the pickup of Chandler Jones, David Johnson is the real deal, and Larry Fitzgerald may have discovered the Fountain of Youth in the off-season.

The Bucs have a nice nucleus of young talent, but I just don’t see them keeping this a one score affair on the road in a bounce-back contest for the Cards.

Jan 3, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) carries the ball against New England Patriots during the second half at Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins won 20-10. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

FiftyFourPercent:

The short answer: In Bill Belichick we trust, especially in this division match-up. The Patriots have beaten the Dolphins seven consecutive times at home and are 15-6-3 (71 percent) against the spread the past three years in Foxboro. Belichick helped coax 11 victories out of Matt Cassel the last time Tom Brady missed significant time. Jimmy Garappolo can do the job, especially given the receiving weapons he has. Rob Gronkowski should be back too.

Miami’s back seven on defense are a train wreck, and the offensive line is inept at run blocking, a problem made worse if center Mike Pouncey has to miss a second straight week with a hip injury. Miami’s pass rush is reduced, too, if Mario Williams can’t go after suffering a concussion last Sunday. Head coach Adam Gase has a sharp offensive mind, but it’s going to take the Dolphins a while to pick up his system. Coming off a game against the highly physical Seahawks always is a draining experience, more so when the game was in Seattle. The Dolphins are 2-4 ATS in their last six road contests and 1-5 ATS on FieldTurf.

Glauser:

No Brady? No Gronkowski? No problem! The Patriots’ “next man up” strategy has been working swimmingly under Belichick for nearly two decades, and such was the case again in Week 1 with an impressive victory over the Cardinals.

Another good bet in this game could be the under for total points (42), especially if the Pats go Gronkless again. The Dolphins’ D made a nice showing against the Seahawks, while their offense likely poses little threat for New England.

Jan 9, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill (32) against the Pittsburgh Steelers during a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

FiftyFourPercent:

Forget the Ravens. The Bengals have become the Steelers’ chief division rivals again. Pittsburgh has won five of the past six meetings, going 4-2 ATS. Expect some regression from the Bengals this season, especially from Andy Dalton. The noted playoff choker had a 106.3 quarterback rating — second-best in the league — before he got hurt last year. His highest previous passer rating was 88.8. Maybe the Bengals get back tight end touchdown machine Tyler Eifert, but their wide receiving corps is down from a year ago, and Hue Jackson isn’t around to help guide Dalton. Star Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict remains on suspension until Week 4.

Glauser:

Pittsburgh looked spectacular against a division-winning Redskins team (albeit that division is the mediocre NFC East). Antonio Brown is arguably the best receiver in the game, and there is very little dropoff from a suspended Le’Veon Bell to veteran DeAngelo Williams. And that’s not even taking into account a shutdown defense looking to redeem itself from a disappointing showing in 2015.

That said, giving three points to a playoff-contending division rival, even one missing several key players, is no sure thing. The Bengals have the backfield firepower in the tandem of Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard to keep the Pittsburgh D-line on its toes while controlling the clock. And I’m actually a fan of Dalton, who may not dazzle you on the field but isn’t prone to mistakes either.

Oct 11, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Javorius Allen (37) runs against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns

FiftyFourPercent:

In Cleveland we don’t trust. Our lean is believing veterans Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Terrell Suggs and Eric Weddle have enough experience and early season energy to take advantage of the Browns’ youth and inexperience at linebacker and wide receiver. Until the Browns can tackle better, it’s hard to take them to seriously.

Baltimore actually had the second-best defense statistically in the NFL during the second half of 2015 and looked great against the Bills, holding them to seven points and 160 yards. A lean is the best we can do, though, with the Ravens, based on their 1-10-2 ATS record the past 13 times when favored.

Glauser:

What I said previously about division rivals? Doesn’t apply here. The rebuilding Eagles may or may not ultimately be good this season, but the Dawgs sure made them look it on Sunday. The offense is in shambles and the defense is solidly average.

Meanwhile, the Ravens were bitten hard by the injury bug last year and have a core group of veterans clearly in “win now” mode. Frankly, John Harbaugh’s longstanding and successful tenure may be tenuous as well. A loss or unnecessarily close victory over the Browns may help to expedite that process.