Sound Smart: 4 Observations After The 2026 NFL Schedule Release

The NFL’s regular-season schedule is official. And it’s a behemoth, with 18 weeks of games — not including the postseason, or the three weeks of preseason, or the Hall of Fame Game. This season will feature games on every day of the week except Tuesday.

It’s football all day and all night and at basically any moment you might want it.

So let’s get into the nitty-gritty of this week’s activity — with some thoughts on the schedule and other NFL happenings. This is "Sound Smart," where I try to spin forward, dive deeper and think outside the box. If I do my job, you’ll have a better understanding of what really happened over the past week of the NFL offseason.

1. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT THE SCHEDULE, IT’S THAT …. 

You will have ample excuses to avoid your family during the holidays.

Let the record show that I’m a big fan of hanging with the family during the months when you can build a fire, enjoy a warm drink, dim the lights and do your best (but inevitably fail) to avoid discussing politics.

That said, I know the holidays aren’t everyone’s favorite time of year. And the NFL seems to know that, too. Because the league has made this year’s holiday slate impossible to avoid. 

The NFL has replaced small talk with ball talk.

I have been as vocal as anyone that the NFL is in danger of oversaturation. But the only way the league could have delivered on this type of schedule — one with a game at all times over the holiday weekends — is if those games were appointment TV. And for the most part, that’s what the NFL plans to deliver. 

There’s no clearer example than the decision to put the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving night. That’s the type of game that the NFL usually places into a random Week 12 slate to give it some life. The Chiefs and Bills deliver incredible drama, time after time. By scheduling it at a time when everyone would have been watching anyway, the league delivered what is often the best game of the year — and in a window that’s likely to maximize viewership.

This is all to say that I’m excited to enjoy (and enjoy covering) these games during the holidays. I’d be remiss not to mention that — with the NFL tossing all its logs on the fire during these holiday games — I also can’t help but wonder whether the slower parts of the season will feel especially slow this year. The NFL decided that there’s only one way to find out.

2. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY 

As exceptional as Patrick Mahomes is, his ACL injury could keep the Chiefs out of the playoffs.

I get that folks in Kansas City are saying that the three-time Super Bowl MVP is accelerating through his timeline in his recovery from the torn ACL he suffered in mid-December. I get that Mahomes is special, physically. I get that the Chiefs signed running back Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, to take some of the offensive burden off Mahomes. That's why many folks see the Chiefs making the playoffs.

This is all good, in theory. 

But historically, it’s been hard for quarterbacks to make an immediate comeback from an ACL injury. And the left side of the Chiefs’ offensive line remains a question, with youngsters Josh Simmons (tackle) and Kingsley Suamataia (guard) yet to make the developmental leap. If the line can’t make the expected leap, then that’ll negatively impact Walker and Mahomes — which is to say that, like last year, that left side of the line could tank the whole offense.

For the past few years, Mahomes was the No. 1, 2 and 3 reasons to believe in the Chiefs. But there’s a real chance he can't be the same explosive playmaker until 2027. And in that case, the offense, which was 12th-worst in scoring last season, might not take the step forward that everyone expects.

That’s why I don't anticipate that the Chiefs will make the 2026 playoffs. Not right now.

That could change if they dominate their first four games. They host the Denver Broncos in Week 1, then they have three fairly easy games: home against the Indianapolis Colts and on the road against the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders. If Mahomes can’t play in those first four weeks, then the Chiefs might be 2-2. 

Remember: They didn't win a game without Mahomes last year — suffering losses to the Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Broncos and Raiders.

The Chiefs will go into their Week 5 bye primed to make a push for the playoffs — and they’ll need to be ready, because their schedule is grueling after that early bye.

I’ll admit that Mahomes has a knack for remarkable achievements, which is why I understand why people are hesitant to doubt the Chiefs’ playoff chances. But it’s not coming from a logical place. This isn’t a come-from-behind victory where Mahomes can manage the clock and eke out the four points he needs for victory. This is an injury where doctors have as much control as Mahomes does. 

The healing process takes time. And if he can’t make it all the way back at a speed that few have accomplished, then the Chiefs won't have the bounce-back season that everyone seems to assume is coming.

3. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY

The Saints could be an offensive juggernaut.

Coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Tyler Shough kept getting better at the end of last season. After turning to the rookie Shough at midseason, the Saints didn’t exactly look like world-beaters, with a 5-4 record that included two wins against the playoff-bound Carolina Panthers — but two losses to the Atlanta Falcons. 

If you watched closely, however, New Orleans had a competence that I didn’t expect after its horrid first half of the season. It was clear the Saints were building something real in those final nine games. And it was also clear that Shough was winning over the building.

Now, I’m not here to promise that Shough is going to be the team’s QB1 in 2027. He felt like a flier in the second round last year — almost a bridge quarterback, given his age, (lack of) upside and lengthy college experience. But I do think the Saints have set him up with every opportunity to succeed this year. And there is some increased urgency because, despite it being his second season, Shough will turn 27 in September. (He was in the same high school recruiting class as Trevor Lawrence!) Between that and Shough’s draft status as a second-rounder, the QB will have to turn things around quickly … or else.

But the Saints have something impressive in place to avoid that "or else" outcome. Moore’s offense seems primed to put Shough into a point-guard role, where he can distribute to receivers Chris Olave and rookie Jordyn Tyson and tight ends Juwan Johnson and rookie Oscar Delp. The Saints signed free agent running back Travis Etienne to take over for aging veteran Alvin Kamara. New Orleans' offensive line is solid and appears to be ascending, particularly at tackle where the Saints have two former first-rounders who went 14th or higher.

There’s a lot to like, and normally, they’d be a plucky group of ruffians who enjoy an any-given-Sunday kind of season. But in the NFC South, the Saints can actually compete. The Falcons are talented but are undergoing a quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa?) and coaching change (Kevin Stefanski). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to be retooling after missing the playoffs. And the Panthers are building something compelling, but they have one of the league’s hardest schedules in 2026.

The Saints will be fun. And the Saints have an easy schedule. I’m on board with them making the playoffs.

4. PEELING BACK THE CURTAIN 

The Steelers are doing … what … to Drew Allar?

After Pittsburgh’s rookie minicamp, there was serious discussion about how the Steelers are handling the former Penn State quarterback's development. ESPN’s Brooke Pryor reported that new head coach Mike McCarthy was "uninstalling everything [Allar has] learned and they're re-uploading" a new system, methodology and set of mechanics. It’s an overhaul.

That drew flippant remarks on social media and sports talk radio.

The sentiment? Allar is doomed.

Maybe.

But it won’t be because of the comprehensive way McCarthy is approaching the third-round pick's development. To the contrary, the overhaul is on par with what Allar appeared to need before the draft.

"We're teaching him different than the way he's played before. He hasn't spent a lot of time under center," McCarthy told reporters during rookie minicamp on May 9. "He's a run-and-shoot guy in high school. He's played from nine yards deep. So, there's just a lot of newness to him."

McCarthy added about Allar "He made a very good first impression."

Allar was trending toward being a first-round pick when he ended the 2024 college season. But his 2025 season derailed his prospects, in part because the Penn State offense began to demand more of him. He couldn't seem to handle that load. That doesn’t bode well for a guy who will have to do even more in the NFL. But it doesn’t make him hopeless.

It’s, frankly, common for a player with Allar’s tools to slip into Day 2. Those types of quarterbacks only slip if they have fundamental issues with their footwork, throwing motion and decision-making. They only slip if they’re a major developmental undertaking.

Look at Will Levis, Malik Willis, Drew Lock and Colin Kaepernick.

Different players. Similar problems. Different careers.

That’s why there’s really no reason for concern when listening to McCarthy’s take on Allar.

"Everybody teaches footwork a little differently. Everybody has a system of offense and how you tie your quarterback, particularly in the pass game, to that. There's a lot of work there [for Allar]," McCarthy said. "We're able to adjust some fundamentals that we think will help him."

When the Steelers drafted Allar, I hoped they would do so with a vision for him playing in 2027 or 2028 — and not in 2026. Now that starting QB Aaron Rodgers has finally decided to return, that might be possible. This is exactly what Allar needs. McCarthy knows what he's doing.

The Steelers have a plan. And even though it'll inevitably involve more Rodgers-created drama, I like the timeline of what they have. At age 42, Rodgers might be trending downward, but he can start for at least one more season. That'll give the Steelers a solid year to see if Allar is making the necessary progress behind the scenes. And if Pittsburgh doesn't think Allar is ready in 2027, the Steelers can either draft a quarterback in Round 1 or pursue their options in free agency.

Would I have preferred they go after Malik Willis in free agency this year? Absolutely. Or Kyler Murray? Also, yes.

But once those ships sailed — Willis signed with the Dolphins and Murray with the Minnesota Vikings — this plan made enough sense to pursue. And above all, the approach with Allar looks sound.