4 NFL player prop bets to make right now
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Word on the street is that the people want more NFL bets, which makes sense. The football wagering itch always seems to spread as we get closer and closer to the regular season, and I’m always happy to oblige.
We’ve already discussed my favorite win totals and future bets for the 2021 season, so today’s column will focus entirely on player propositional bets. These are season-long wagers based around a specific player: How many passing yards will Quarterback X have? Who will lead the league in rushing?
Yes – we can actually fire on this stuff and much more at FOX Bet. Here are my four favorite props for the 2021 NFL season.
Dak Prescott Over 4850.5 passing yards (-110; bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
When Prescott’s leg shattered in the Cowboys’ fifth game of 2020, he was completing a career-high 68% of his passing attempts. He was also on pace to throw for over 6,000 yards.
I always think about attempts when it comes to Mike McCarthy’s offense. His teams execute plays quickly, and they love to throw the rock. Prescott threw the ball 222 times in four games and change last season. That extrapolates to well over 800 attempts in a 16-game season and even more in 17. At Prescott's 7.7 career yards per attempt (which is lower than the 8.4 mark he posted to start last season), that'd be over 6,100 passing yards – far beyond the 4,851 we need.
Granted, Dallas’ defense was absolutely atrocious last year, and the Cowboys were playing from behind in most of those games, but I doubt that they’ll be able to completely overhaul that side of the ball in one offseason. So Prescott should have ample opportunities to wing it.
I love "Over" 4,850 passing yards.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 3950.5 passing yards (-110; bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
At first, I thought this was a typo.
In nine starts for the Dolphins last season, Tagovailoa averaged 200 passing yards per game and finished with 1,805 yards in those starts, so it will take a stupendous leap to get close to 4,000.
Inconsistency was Tua’s biggest issue in 2020. He would throw for 93 yards one week and 248 the next. How about that 169-yard performance against the Chargers followed by an 83-yard performance versus the Broncos? Then there’s the 361-yard scorcher he had in Week 16 in a 56-26 loss to the Bills.
Tagovailoa will have every opportunity to start every Sunday for the Fish, but even if he tacks on an extra 25 yards per game for 17 games, that’ll only land him at 3,825, and that feels generous. I like "Under" because opposing defenses should be able to scheme for him more successfully with a full offseason to dissect tape and tendencies.
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Ben Roethlisberger Under 3790.5 passing yards (-110; bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
People in advanced analytics circles think Pittsburgh is in for a rollercoaster season, and they could very well be onto something. I just refuse to doubt a defense that allowed only 19.5 points per game last season.
My issues are with the offense.
Yeah, Pittsburgh has playmakers, but Roethlisberger needs time to get them the ball. The Steelers had to replace all three interior linemen from a first-place team. Maurkice Pouncey, David DeCastro and Matt Feiler are all gone. You almost never see turnover like that in the trenches. And have you seen the offensive line depth chart? Who are these guys?!
Roethlisberger threw for 3,803 yards last, year and there’s a reason this year’s prop is even lower at 3,790.5. He’s not capable of extending plays the way he used to, and I would argue that he’ll have the worst protection of his career.
And you can forget the "Over" if Big Ben – who has a history of injuries – misses a game or two.
Dalvin Cook to lead NFL in total rushing yards (+550; bet $10 to win $65 total)
I hate how much I love this bet.
Cook rushed for 1,557 yards and 16 touchdowns in 14 games last season, and he will undoubtedly be the focal point of Minnesota’s offensive attack in his age-26 season. Mike Zimmer’s teams have always been about running the rock and playing stout defense, and I don’t expect that to change.
All this Aaron Rodgers drama makes me want to short the Packers in the NFC North no matter what Rodgers does. Their locker room could literally implode [Ed. note: *probably* not literally, although science is a mystery], so I’m eyeing Vikings divisional futures, and I like Cook to have a monster year.
The only running back with shorter odds is two-time rushing leader Derrick Henry (+350), which obviously tells you how much the FOX Bet trading room respects Cook. And you would think Henry will get fewer touches now that Julio Jones is in the same huddle.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.