2026 NFL Draft: Fernando Mendoza, Dante Moore Lead Top QB Prospects

Quarterback has always been the most important position in football, but it has perhaps never been more obviously critical than in this year’s College Football Playoff, where four of the eight teams still vying for the national title feature early-round 2026 NFL Draft prospects. 

We’ve committed to tracking the progress of this year’s top QBs — carefully documenting the rises and falls of this year’s most intriguing candidates. 

With the CFP, all-star games and Scouting Combine still on the horizon, here is how we currently project the quarterbacks to come off the board in the 2026 NFL Draft. 

FIRST ROUND

1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Like Indiana itself, Mendoza entered the year as more of a curiosity than a realistic candidate to be No. 1 overall. But the poise, precision and mobility he’s demonstrated in guiding the unbeaten Hoosiers to the playoffs have turned all doubters in the scouting community to believers along the way. 

In a draft class full of quarterbacks with more questions than answers, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner’s consistency stands apart. He has completed 68.1% of his passes over his career and has thrown nearly three times as many touchdowns (63) as interceptions (22) during that time, dating back to his time at Cal. Simply put, Mendoza takes care of the ball. In an era of pass-happy gunslingers, Mendoza has thrown multiple interceptions in a game just once in the past two years. He shows not only impressive anticipation and accuracy on throws to all levels of the field, but the pre- and post-snap recognition that comes with starting 33 games at the collegiate level for two different offenses. 

Mendoza’s decision-making and clutch play in tight road wins at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State and in the Big Ten Championship Game versus Ohio State are a testament to his football IQ and poise. But make no mistake, he’s also quite physically gifted. He comes with prototypical size (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) and possesses plenty of velocity, touch and accuracy to make every throw in an NFL playbook. Mendoza is also quite accurate on the move — excelling on QB waggles — and while he’d prefer to buy time and throw the ball, he is a quality athlete who's unafraid to run (he's rushed for 10 touchdowns over his career). 

The one nit to pick with Mendoza is that he has very limited experience taking snaps from under center. He didn’t take a single snap under center, for example, in the aforementioned contests against Big Ten foes. Turning his back to the defense on the drop back will force Mendoza to speed up his processing that much more in the NFL. However, the graduate-level decision-making and quality athleticism he’s already shown on tape suggest that his development in this area will be more of a speed bump rather than a debilitating hindrance at the next level. 

Mendoza projects as a more athletic version of former No. 1 overall pick (and four-time Pro Bowler) Jared Goff. He possesses the physical skill set and intangibles to warrant an early first round selection and, barring injury, will prove to be a quality NFL starter. 

2. Dante Moore, Oregon

The NFL is all about projecting upside and, Moore simply has more of that than any other quarterback in this draft class. 

There is a tantalizing ease with which he plays the game. Every throw looks so effortless — and many of them show a degree of velocity, precision and touch that only a handful of current NFL quarterbacks possess. His ability to "drop it in the bucket" on intermediate and deep throws stands out in this class, justifying the frequent comparisons Moore gets to young Texans star C.J. Stroud. 

Like Stroud, Moore is a gifted and natural passer. He has a snappy release and the ball simply explodes out of his hand. He is a creative distributor, dropping his arm angle to throw sidearm, at times. Like a second baseman avoiding an oncoming runner, Moore can pivot and throw accurately off one foot — a useful trick to combat a collapsing pocket. His ability to create out of structure will be coveted in the NFL, where playmakers like Patrick Mahomes and the past two No. 1 overall picks — Caleb Williams and Cam Ward — have made improvisation an art form. 

While Moore’s creativity often makes the improbable possible, there are lapses of judgment in his play. Too often, he is willing to challenge tight windows because of the confidence he has in his arm, which can lead to trouble. Between this season and the five games he started as a true freshman at UCLA back in 2023, Moore has thrown 14 interceptions in 18 career starts. 

Moore has the physical traits that project quite well to the NFL, warranting early first-round consideration. However, he is just a redshirt sophomore who won’t turn 21 years old until a month after the 2026 draft and both his frame (Oregon lists him at 6-foot-3, 206 pounds) and game could use a little filling out. Just as importantly, should Moore opt to give up his remaining college eligibility, scouts will likely spend as much time determining whether he possesses the maturity to lead an NFL team as they will evaluating his play. 

General managers are certainly aware of the inherent risk inexperienced quarterbacks bring. Over the past 10 years, five quarterbacks — Mitchell Trubisky, Kyler Murray, the late Dwayne Haskins, Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson — have been drafted in the first round with less than 20 career starts at the college level, and only Murray has been serviceable among them. 

TOP 50

3. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Having only emerged as Alabama’s starter this season, the same inexperience concerns scouts have with Moore will also dog Simpson, should he opt to give up his final year of college eligibility. But what a year it has been for Simpson. After completing just 29 passes over three seasons in Tuscaloosa, the former five-star recruit led the SEC in completions (293), passing yards (3,500) and touchdowns (28) in a breakout 2025 campaign that could earn him first-round consideration. 

Like Mendoza and Moore, Simpson clearly possesses NFL-caliber accuracy. He is adept at layering the ball between defenders, excelling in the intermediate and deep zones that are critical to success in the NFL. He shows more maturity than his experience would suggest, often stepping up in the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield, rather than backing away from pressure and panicking over the incoming rush. 

At 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, Simpson lacks elite measurables. He is a functional athlete who can deliver accurately on the move but is more of a traditional pocket passer than a true scrambling threat. As a passer, he is more accurate and on-time than overpowering. Simpson projects as a future NFL starter but one who might need a stellar supporting cast, especially early on. 

DAY 2

4. Carson Beck, Miami

A year ago, Tyler Shough surged up draft boards with a spectacular showing at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine. No one should be surprised if Beck enjoyed a similar jump this spring. 

He is a classic rhythm passer, who, when comfortable, can look the part of a quality NFL starter. He offers a prototypical 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame with good arm strength, anticipation and accuracy. He has completed 69.9% of his passes over his career in two pro-style offenses at Miami and Georgia, showing the grit to handle elite competition and the criticism that comes with playing for a blue blood program. Beck is adept at throwing out of the shotgun and under center, and he’s played in 52 games over his career. He’s seen it all, throwing for 82 touchdowns against 30 interceptions. 

Unfortunately, dating back to last year at Georgia, Beck has also shown a troubling propensity to allow snowballs to turn into full-blown avalanches. He has thrown multiple interceptions in seven games over the past two seasons — a disturbing regression following the first 26 games of his career with the Bulldogs in which he never had a game with more than one pick. 

Beck’s tape is not for the faint-hearted. It has some of the best and worst throws of this class, which makes him one of this year’s most intriguing boom-or-bust candidates. 

5. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Speaking of boom or bust, Mateer might just be the personification of that description, offering the kind of dual-threat ability that, when operating on all cylinders, can tilt the field in his team’s favor. 

There is no denying that Mateer failed to live up to expectations at Oklahoma in 2025 after a breathtaking debut as Washington State’s starter a year earlier. Statistics alone can paint the picture with Mateer: He was responsible for 44 touchdowns with the Cougars (including 29 passing) in 2024 and just 22 with the Sooners (14 passing) this past season. 

Optimists will argue that a broken bone in his right (throwing) hand was partially to blame for Mateer’s struggles. When healthy, he flashes adequate accuracy for the pro game — especially given that throwing lanes are wider when opponents also have to account for his dynamic running ability. 

At a powerful 6-foot-1, 224 pounds, Mateer possesses the body armor to handle a heavy workload as a running quarterback, and he’s shown the toughness and competitiveness scouts are searching for at the position. Mateer could return to the college game and hone his passing skills, but if he were to opt out early for the NFL, no one should be surprised if his perceived upside generated a top-100 gamble. 

6. Drew Allar, Penn State 

Any team willing to gamble on Mateer’s perceived upside will almost certainly be just as intrigued by Allar’s arm, which I believe is the strongest of this year’s draft class. At 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, Allar is seemingly straight out of central casting for quarterbacks. He boasts an absolute rifle — the kind of arm every NFL team is seeking to develop. 

Development is needed, however, as Allar has yet to demonstrate the decision-making or accuracy needed for long-term success in the NFL. In an era of multidimensional weapons at quarterback, Allar is a throwback to a previous generation. While he isn’t truly immobile in the pocket, he is relatively cement-footed in comparison to others on this list and very much a traditional drop-back passer. 

Finally, Allar’s draft stock is currently clouded due to injury. He suffered a broken left ankle against Northwestern on Oct. 11, undergoing surgery shortly thereafter and ending his college career with the following stat line: 7,402 passing yards, 63.2%, 61 TDs, 13 INTs. With his college eligibility expired, Allar is hoping to throw for scouts prior to the 2026 draft. He’ll almost certainly look terrific in doing so — but the tape shows a quarterback with more arm talent than instincts, suggesting that he’ll need patience before competing for meaningful playing time in the NFL. 

DAY 3

7. Taylen Green, Arkansas

In the weeks leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft, I remember having conversations with top scouts about the perceived pecking order of that year’s talented QBs — a group that included No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield, as well as first-rounders Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson. 

As you may recall, Mayfield and Darnold were largely viewed as the most pro-ready of the class, while scouts also acknowledged that neither was viewed as a "lock" to be great in the NFL. And scouts at the time argued that if a club was going to invest an early pick in a quarterback, why not gamble on the player with the highest upside (i.e. Allen or Jackson). 

The fact that Allen and Jackson have each matured into MVP-caliber quarterbacks is, in a nutshell, the argument for Green, a 6-foot-6, 235-pound do-it-all dynamo who is the closest thing I’ve seen to Randall Cunningham in 25 years of scouting. With 94 career touchdowns scored (59 through the air), Green is a big play waiting to happen. And like Allen nearly a decade ago, Green could use the Senior Bowl to display his unique skill set. 

He is undeniably gifted, though a quarterback with 53 games of experience simply should not make the rudimentary mistakes he routinely did at Arkansas (and previously at Boise State), including throwing into coverage and showing below-average accuracy while doing so. A galloping athlete likely to impress in Mobile as well as the Scouting Combine, Green is going to generate some buzz as the draft approaches. But the tape suggests he’s a gamble best reserved for the later rounds. 

8. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

There isn’t much that went right for Nussmeier and the LSU Tigers in 2025. Rather than build on a strong 2024 campaign in which he threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns, Nussmeier regressed, often forcing the ball into coverage and being benched for the final month of the season. 

With PFF charging the Tigers’ intended "pass-catchers" with an eye-popping 18 drops in his nine games this season, it isn’t entirely fair that Nussmeier served as a scapegoat for LSU’s struggles in the passing game. However, some of the same risky throws that Nussmeier got away with in 2024 burned him and the Tigers in 2025, as his limited arm strength became more evident. 

As the son of a former pro quarterback (and current New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator), Nussmeier does a lot of the "little things" right. He possesses the intangibles scouts look for at the position. Unfortunately, below-average physical traits seemingly cap Nussmeier’s potential, suggesting that his NFL future is most likely as a backup.  

9. Kade Klubnik, Clemson

Like the aforementioned Nussmeier, Klubnik was the victim of his own previous success — as well as the hype that came with it. His 36 touchdown passes against just six interceptions as a junior in 2024 created huge expectations for both him and Clemson this season. So when the team struggled mightily out of the gate, the quarterback took much of the scrutiny, resulting in a perceived plummeting of his draft stock. 

Klubnik (and Clemson), nonetheless, rallied in the second half of the 2025 season, as the quarterback quietly completed a career-high 65.6% of his passes for 2,943 yards and 16 touchdowns. For the third consecutive year, Klubnik started every game and finished the season with less than 10 interceptions, giving him a strong 73:24 career TD-INT ratio. Those numbers are all the more impressive given that he also ran for 878 yards and 17 touchdowns. 

Taking better advantage of his mobility might be the easiest way to get Klubnik back on track. He is a gifted athlete who will likely prove the fastest of this year’s quarterbacks at the Scouting Combine. When playing free, his ability to challenge opponents with his legs opens up passing lanes — and he possesses the arm and accuracy to exploit them. 

At times this season, Klubnik struggled to adapt to post-snap alterations by the defense, including in last week’s 22-10 loss to Penn State. Given that he’s played in 49 games for Clemson, it is fair to question whether Klubnik will ever develop the diagnostic skills needed for high-level QB play at the NFL level. 

The traits are there to develop, however, and Klubnik will have another opportunity to show his talents as one of the most celebrated prospects participating in this year’s East-West Shrine Bowl. 

Rob Rang is an NFL Draft analyst for FOX Sports. He has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 25 years. He also works as a scout with the BC Lions of the Canadian Football League. Follow him on X @RobRang.

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