2026-27 NFL MVP Predictions: Will Dak Prescott Win Award For First Time?

Updated Sep. 6, 2026 3:36 p.m. ET

After Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won his first MVP award last season, could we see another player win the award for the first time in their career?

There are certainly some intriguing players who are candidates to win their first MVP in the 2026 NFL season. The "First Things First" crew sees that being the case as well, with four of the five panelists picking a player to win their first MVP this season. 

So, let's take a look at who they have winning MVP, as three of them even picked the same player to win the award. 

Nick Wright's MVP Prediction:

Patrick Mahomes returns to the field after suffering a torn ACL in Week 15.(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Nick Wright continued his theme of the Kansas City Chiefs returning to prominence in 20026, and labeled quarterback Patrick Mahomes as his MVP pick.

"He was the favorite to win this award at the midway point of last season. I don't think him coming off his ACL is going to hamper him throwing the ball. I think it will limit how much he runs the ball," Wright said.

Mahomes' 2025 season ended early when he suffered a torn ACL in Week 15. However, with a new running back in Kenneth Walker III and tight end Travis Kelce returning, Mahomes enters the season with a talented supporting cast.

Chris Broussard's MVP Prediction:

Broussard started the Dak Prescott for MVP trend, making note that his numbers are a massive factor in this year's MVP.

"The last four years that he's played 16 or 17 games, he's thrown for 4,500 yards and 30 or more touchdowns," Broussard said. "I think Dak is going to have huge numbers this year, and I obviously think they're going to win the division."

The Cowboys finished year one under head coach Brian Schottenheimer 7-9-1 and second in the NFC East. Prescott capped the season with 4,552 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Greg Jennings' MVP Prediction: 

Could Dak Prescott win his first-ever NFL MVP award? (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

As Jennings also picked Prescott as his MVP prediction, he provided another perspective that makes Prescott a worthy candidate.

"If you're going to win MVP, and you had a good season last year, you got to have areas where you can improve. The Dallas Cowboys have areas where they improve, and Dak is a part of that," Jennings said. "Dak Prescott has to be what they are expecting him to be in order for this team to take the next step. I believe he is capable of doing that."

Even if Prescott had an impressive year on paper, making the improvements this season will be a big factor in the Cowboys' 2026 campaign.

Kevin Wildes' MVP Prediction:

Once again, Wildes picked the Cowboys quarterback to win this year's MVP. 

Wildes' argument for Prescott stemmed from his ability to put up points, as well as having solid numbers on paper.

"He led the league in completions. He threw the ball 600 times last year. The little sprinkle I like, which is a benefit of Matthew Stafford, is that their defense was so bad, [they] got to put up points," Wildes said.

Danny Parkins' MVP Prediction:

Caleb Williams enters year three in the NFL and year two under Ben Johnson. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Parkins tabbed Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams as his MVP winner for the upcoming season. After finishing the 2025 campaign as the Bears' all-time single-season passing leader, Parkins believes a second year in head coach Ben Johnson's system will be key. 

"Their offense is excellent," Parkins said. "We always talk about great quarterback talent in a great offensive system in Year 2. It's Year 3 for Caleb Williams and Year 2 in Ben Johnson's system. It's a young offense with really, really talented playmakers at every level. … I think they are going to score a ton of points."