2024 NFL Week 8 picks, predictions: Back home underdogs to cover
Bettors know that, currently, there are a few teams right now in the NFL that just flat out stink.
The Patriots are one, and the Browns are another.
But somehow, I still have faith in them to hang with their opponents this weekend.
Sounds bizarre — I know. But I've got my reasons.
With that in mind, let's go ahead and dive into my best bets for NFL Week 8.
(All times ET)
SUNDAY, OCT. 27
I fully understand the Patriots are not good.
They are 1-6 with six straight losses, including a 16-point loss to the Jaguars on Sunday in England, after losing by three touchdowns to the Texans the week before.
Despite the defeats, the Patriots' change at quarterback has given them life on that side of the ball. Drake Maye is completing nearly 66% of passes to zero receiving weapons who’d start on any other team. He’s thrown for just over 500 yards with five touchdowns.
The Patriots, who we know aren’t good, are facing the 2-5 Jets, who are also not good. Why are the Jets a touchdown favorite over anyone right now? They are a dysfunctional team that can’t score and, after the firing of Robert Saleh, can’t play defense now.
This team is ranked 21st in both offensive and defensive DVOA and, in a sign of poor coaching, it is 28th in special teams.
New York has no business being a 7-point road favorite.
PICK: Patriots (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points, or win outright
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Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson was the worst quarterback in the NFL this season.
Watson tore his Achilles tendon in Week 7 and was put on injured reserve. Watson not being in the lineup will give the Browns better quarterback play and, by default, Cleveland will get better.
The Browns have a healthy Jameis Winston to play quarterback. He got one drive in Week 7 and they immediately scored. Even if Dorian Thompson-Robinson plays, the Browns are better without Watson. They welcomed back Nick Chubb last week, and I’m going to wager on the offense just having more confidence without Watson in the lineup.
On defense, the Browns aren’t bad on paper, but since the offense couldn’t get a first down, they started to falter in games with too many reps. It shouldn't be an issue with a better Browns offense.
We will see an uptick in the Browns defense with a new quarterback.
The Ravens are also off a huge Monday Night Football win and have a short rest before going back on the road. This is just a good spot for the Browns, who are not 11 points worse than the Ravens with a new QB.
PICK: Browns (+11) to lose by fewer than 11 points, or win outright
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Panthers @ Broncos (4:25 p.m., CBS)
The Carolina Panthers are boring and bad, which is a bad place to be.
They aren’t playing anyone at quarterback who they are grooming for the future. There’s a rare player or two that are future stars for them, but it’s mostly just a dead franchise right now — and it has been playing like that.
Carolina has suffered blowout losses in five straight games and, after a quick spark with a quarterback change in Week 3, the offense has gotten progressively worse. Case in point: The Panthers scored just seven points in Washington against a Commanders defense that is bottom third in the NFL.
Now the Panthers head back on the road to face an outstanding Broncos defense, one that's ranked thrd in DVOA and in points per game. The Broncos are trending to get back Patrick Surtain from concussion and I don’t know how the Panthers score in this game.
PICK: Panthers Under 16.5 points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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