2024 NFL Week 12 action report: Books 'need Cowboys to show up' against Commanders

For decades, the Dallas Cowboys played under the moniker of America’s Team. Maybe not so much this season, particularly for bettors, including those looking at NFL Week 12 odds.

Dallas is 3-7 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Meaning if you just bet against Dallas every week, you’d be making money this year.

"The Cowboys continue to be in shambles," Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

Next up for disintegrating Dallas: A road date with the growingly popular Washington Commanders.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Cowboys vs. Commanders and a handful of other games, as we dive into NFL Week 12 betting nuggets.

NFL Rocks On FOX

Dallas and Washington kick off at 1 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX. Caesars opened the Commanders as 9.5-point favorites, quickly moved to -10, and by Wednesday, was at -11.

That move was aided by action from professional bettors, who like Washington (7-4 SU/7-3-1 ATS) despite its current two-game SU and ATS skid.

"We took sharp Commanders money earlier in the week at -10," Feazel said. "The Commanders are the more impressive team. We’ll need the Cowboys to show up for this game."

That could be a tough ask for Caesars’ risk room, if the final game of Week 11 is any indication. On Monday night, the Cowboys were 7-point home underdogs vs. the Houston Texans and got waxed 34-10.

Dallas is on an 0-5 SU and ATS dive, with three of those losses by 24 points or more. To be fair, the Cowboys were without Dak Prescott the last two games, as his season is over due to a hamstring injury. Cooper Rush clearly isn’t the answer.

NFL Rocks On FOX, Part II

Cowboys vs. Commanders hopefully proves to be a decent appetizer for what should be a very good main course on FOX: San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday.

The Niners (5-5 SU/4-6 ATS) have little margin for error if they want any chance of defending their NFC title. The Packers (7-3 SU/4-6 ATS) are having a good season that’s been thoroughly overshadowed by their NFC North brethren/the freight train Detroit Lions.

Caesars opened Green Bay -1.5, got to -2.5 on Tuesday and stood at -2 (-105) on Wednesday night.

"For San Francisco, it’s about injuries and underperformance, even since Christian McCaffrey came back," Feazel said. "We’re seeing a lot of Under money, as well as a little more Packers money."

Despite the early Under action, the total is fairly stable, going from 47.5 to 48 on Monday, then returning to 47.5 on Tuesday.

NFL Sharp Side 

Professional bettor Randy McKay understands the ups and downs that come with betting on football. He went 3-0 in Week 10, then 0-3 in Week 11. Unfazed, he’s serving up three plays in Week 12 NFL odds.

And the first might surprise you, at first glance: Carolina Panthers +11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs.

"Carolina is off a bye and more healthy. Adam Thielen and Jonathon Brooks are back on offense," McKay said. "This is a tough, physical game for the Chiefs. I could see them starting slow and gutting out another close win.

"This will be Carolina’s Super Bowl, and the line is inflated."

It’s worth pointing out that while the Chiefs are 9-1 SU — not losing until last weekend — they are 5-5 ATS and haven’t covered the point spread in their last four games.

McKay is also on the Seattle Seahawks at pick ‘em against the visiting Arizona Cardinals.

"This is a home-and-home series. I see Seattle winning this one and losing two weeks later in Arizona," McKay said. "Arizona is fat and happy, coming off a four-game winning streak. The Cardinals coming off the bye makes this attractive, as well."

Finally, McKay is on the Philadelphia Eagles -2.5, though he’d take them at -3 (even), for the Sunday night game at the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles are on a 6-0 SU surge (4-2 ATS), while the Rams are 4-1 SU in their last five (3-2 ATS).

"Philly is coming off more rest after a Thursday win [in Week 11], and the Rams had a tough game at New England," McKay said, while noting L.A.’s offensive line is dinged up, too. "Which doesn't help vs. Philly's pass rush. The Philly offense is healthy and cooking now, and Philly won this game 23-14 last year."

That matchup was also in Los Angeles, in Week 5 last season.

Prime Time

Feazel chimed in on both the Eagles-Rams Sunday night clash and the Battle of the Harbaugh Bros. on Monday night, when the Baltimore Ravens face the Los Angeles Chargers.

As noted above, Philadelphia (8-2 SU/6-4 ATS) is on a six-game hot streak, while L.A. (5-5 SU/4-6 ATS) has won four of five and is actually in contention in a bogged-down NFC West.

Caesars Sports opened Philadelphia -3 in NFL Week 12 odds and briefly went to -2.5 before returning to -3.

"We’re seeing more Eagles money in this spot," Feazel said Wednesday night. "The Eagles are starting to get to the form people thought they’d have preseason. There’s some Rams +3 action, but more so on the Eagles."

The Ravens (7-4 SU/5-5-1 ATS) and the Chargers (7-3 SU and ATS) wrap up the week. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is looking to improve to 3-0 against brother and L.A. coach Jim Harbaugh.

"Younger brother is 0-2 vs. older brother, with the last time coming in the Super Bowl in 2013," Feazel said, alluding to the Ravens’ 34-31 victory over the 49ers.

Since then, younger brother Jim had a successful stint at Michigan, capped by a national title in 2023-24, after which he left to take the Chargers’ post. Older brother John’s Ravens are the more popular play heading toward the weekend.

"We’re seeing mostly Ravens action, no surprise. We’re inching toward 3.5, but I don’t know if we’ll actually get there," Feazel said. "We’re seeing a lot of Over action, too, as we have all year on Baltimore."

And with good reason. The Over is 9-2 in Ravens games this season.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There aren’t many big bets yet on NFL Week 12 odds. But in leftovers from Week 11, there were a couple of major wagers on Texans-Cowboys Monday night.

The first was quite unique and quite large. Houston was a 7-point road favorite. But a Hard Rock Bet customer instead wagered on an alternate point spread of Texans +4.5 – for the sum of $1 million, at odds of -850. 

As noted above, Houston won easily 34-10. So the customer profited $117,647.06 (total payout $1,117,647.06).

Meanwhile, a Dallas backer at Caesars Sports wasn’t as fortunate. The bettor put $124,226 on Cowboys +7 (even). But the Cowboys got smoked.

As for this week: A Caesars customer has $110,000 on Commanders -10 vs. the Cowboys. If Washington covers the spread, then the bettor profits $100,000 (total payout $210,000).

And a BetMGM customer put $30,000 on the Chargers +1300 to win the AFC. If Justin Herbert & Co. make it to the Super Bowl, then the bettor profits $390,000 (total payout $420,000).

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Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.