2024 NFL Week 10 picks, predictions: Back Broncos to cover at Chiefs
One of the hardest obstacles an NFL team has to face is playing a tough competitor on a short week.
That's exactly what Tampa Bay is facing this week.
Find out why I think Baker Mayfield & Co. have their work cut out for them and also why I'm backing the Broncos to cover at Kansas City.
Let's get into it.
(All times ET)
SUNDAY, NOV. 10
49ers @ Buccaneers (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
This is a terrible situational spot for the Bucs.
Tampa Bay just played a physical overtime game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Buccaneers defense had to defend 83 Chiefs offensive plays and allowed 100% of yards over in the Chiefs' final three drives.
The Bucs were exhausted.
Now they have a short week and host the San Francisco 49ers fresh off a bye. So they go from facing one physical run game to facing another physical run game in just six days. After Monday night, the Bucs defense ranks 28th in defensive yards per rush, and it allows 27 points per game, which is also good for 28th in the NFL.
Tampa Bay's defense is just not good and the 49ers will attempt to establish the tone for the rest of their season on Sunday. I like the 49ers to cover the first half.
PICK: 49ers -2.5 (at time of pick) first half
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Steelers @ Commanders (1 p.m., CBS)
The Commanders are 7-2 and have covered eight of their nine games. Their offense has flourished with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. It’s balanced, ranking second in passing offense and eighth in rushing.
While the Steelers have an outstanding defense, this is the list of some of the quarterbacks they’ve faced this season: Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Aiden O’Connell, Dak Prescott and Joe Flacco.
You get the point.
The Commanders are the best offense the Steelers will have faced all season, and I can see Daniels making plays with his arm and legs to put points on the board.
Also, I think teams will start to figure out who the Steelers are on offense. It’s a far better offense with Wilson, but they do three things: run the ball, move the pocket (or play action pass), and throw go-balls. It’s limited, and with the addition of Marshon Lattimore to the secondary, the Commanders have someone who can guard George Pickens.
If Pickens is limited, that takes away the deep-pass option for the Steelers. I like Commanders to win and cover.
PICK: Commanders (-3) to win by more than 3 points
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Broncos @ Chiefs (1 p.m., CBS)
The Chiefs do not cover these big numbers, and just like their opponent from Monday night, I think this situation is "bad" for them.
They will still win the game but won’t cover.
It’s a short week and their quarterback is beat up. While I don’t necessarily believe in look-ahead spots in the NFL, the Chiefs are in a perfect one on Sunday night. They head to Buffalo after facing Denver and this could be a spot they just want to get a win and move it along.
The Broncos got embarrassed by the Ravens on Sunday and wagering on a quality team off a humbling loss is a good wager. Denver ranks 16th in team DVOA and seventh on defense. So it's a team that’s built to slow down the Chiefs offense.
How active is Travis Kelce just six days after getting 16 targets and 14 catches? I think the Chiefs are just meh in this game.
So I like the Broncos to cover this 8-point spread.
PICK: Broncos (+8 at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 8 points, or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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