2024 NFL Week 10 betting recap: Books 'were in sight of Xanadu'

Overall, bookmakers enjoyed the NFL Week 10 odds market. 

A bunch of underdogs covered and sportsbooks got some money back, after the public betting masses belted the books in four of the past five weeks.

However, it was close to being a massive haul for the house. Close as in, a Denver Broncos loss on a blocked field goal and a Washington Commanders one-point loss. 

Ditto for winnable games that became losses for the Houston Texans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars.

"We were knocking on the door of an NFL Sunday for the ages. We were in sight of Xanadu," Prime Sportsbook executive chair Joe Brennan Jr. said. "But this league is a fickle mistress."

So instead, Prime and other operators generally settled for a good winning Sunday.

Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.

Wail To The Chiefs

Per usual, the Chiefs were a popular play in Week 10 NFL odds. Yes, the point spread moved toward the Broncos all week, from a Chiefs -9.5 opener down to -7.5 and even -7 at some spots.

But you can’t keep the public off Patrick Mahomes. So when K.C. won by just a 16-14 margin — on a blocked field goal as time expired — the books were good with that result.

However, the Chiefs are always in moneyline parlays. Most oddsmakers wanted the Broncos to make a relative chip-shot 35-yard field goal and get the 17-16 outright win, to blow up those moneyline parlays.

"It would have been much better had Denver made the field goal," said Jeff Sherman, senior vice president of risk at The SuperBook. "Either a Tampa or Denver win would have made it a larger [win] for the book."

Indeed, the Buccaneers had their chances to upend the San Francisco 49ers, who were 6.5-point road favorites. But Tampa Bay lost 23-20 on a final-second field goal.

BetMGM would’ve preferred a Tampa upset, as well. As for Denver, though, BetMGM did all right to Kansas City narrowly dodging its first loss of the season.

"That blocked kick actually helped. We wanted a K.C. win and a Denver cover," BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said.

Moneyline Magic

Underdogs were 10-3 against the spread (ATS) through the Sunday night game in NFL Week 10 odds. That’s never a good sign for recreational bettors, who thrive when favorites win and cover.

In Sunday’s early window, the Buffalo Bills (-4.5) were the only favorite among eight to cover the spread, beating the Indianapolis Colts 30-20.

"Favorites going 1-7 ATS, that’s always good for the book," Cipollini said.

However, as noted above, while favorites didn’t cover much on Sunday, they often managed to at least win the game. Especially the more public favorites, which correlates to good news for the public betting masses.

We’ve already mentioned Kansas City and San Francisco. Add to that the league’s most successful team for bettors, the Detroit Lions. On Sunday night, the Lions didn’t cover as 4-point road favorites vs. the Texans.

But they rallied from a 23-7 halftime deficit to win 26-23, on another final-second field goal.

As noted above, the popular Bills won and covered. So too did the Philadelphia Eagles (-7), who drilled the host Dallas Cowboys 34-6. The Minnesota Vikings (-7), despite getting just four field goals, beat the host Jaguars 12-7.

"We had a ton of moneyline play on the favorites, and a lot of it was parlays," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.

Added The SuperBook’s Sherman: "Enough of the popular favorites won: Chiefs, Niners, Bills, Eagles, Lions. It was [still] a decent day. We needed Texans outright at the end."

BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton echoed Sherman’s sentiments.

"We ended up a small winner," Shelton said. "We really needed the Texans to win outright. There were a ton of moneyline parlays where the Lions were the last piece of the puzzle.

"We got slaughtered on Lions in-game, as well."

Indeed, another market public bettors like is in-game wagering on a popular favorite that falls behind. So Detroit perfectly fit that bill Sunday night.

On Campus

College football Week 11 odds saw consensus on the Georgia vs. Ole Miss showdown in the SEC. Pretty much every sportsbook needed the 2-point home underdog Rebels to at least cover the short point spread.

Better still: Ole Miss winning outright. And that’s what happened, as the Rebels shockingly rolled to a 28-10 victory.

"Ole Miss outright is one of the biggest wins of the year for the house," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.

Added South Point’s Andrews: "Ole Miss was very good for us."

Not as good: Alabama, a 2.5-point road favorite, demolishing LSU 42-13.

"That was bad. We needed LSU. But overall, it was a good, solid day," Andrews said.

Helping out South Point and a host of other books: Spread-covering machine Indiana finally not covering. The Hoosiers were hefty 14.5-point home favorites vs. Michigan and held on for a 20-15 victory.

Indiana is still perfect at 10-0 straight up (SU) and still a very good 8-2 against the spread (ATS). But the Hoosiers had their eight-game spread-covering streak end.

"I think the numbers have finally caught up to Indiana. That was a good game for us," Andrews said.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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