2024 NFL odds: Eight For The Win — Super Bowl futures ranked
Now we are getting down to the nitty-gritty, folks.
We have reached the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, meaning only eight teams are left with a chance to take home the Vince Lombardi trophy.
But even a non-bettor will tell you that each team does not have an equal shot of winning it all heading into this weekend. When looking at the squads left, we have a couple of powerhouse teams mixed in with a defending Super Bowl Champion and a few teams that are just happy to be here.
Will a long-shot prevail? Or will it be the betting favorite?
I decided to rank the remaining eight teams from eight to one based on the value they offer combined with the realistic chance they have to win the big dance.
Let's dive into the fun.
8. Houston Texans +2800
A rookie head coach and a rookie QB winning at home vs. the Cleveland Browns was one thing; even if they go to Baltimore and pull off the upset, they’ll have a third straight road game in the conference final at Kansas City or Buffalo.
Yes, we nearly saw Cincinnati pull off a similar feat, but this would be the most stunning playoff run in the history of the sport. No shot.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2500
If you believe the Bucs smashed the Eagles because Philadelphia has been leaking oil for weeks, then Tampa is ranked properly here. If you think they’re getting healthy at the right time defensively, and the weapons are enough that they’re never out of a game … yeah, this team isn’t beating San Francisco.
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6. Kansas City Chiefs +700
At this price, I’d rather take a chance on a long shot.
Look at the Chiefs' path — they have to win (as an underdog) at Buffalo, then go to Baltimore, once again as an underdog, and pull out a victory. If they survive that gauntlet and play the 49ers in the Super Bowl, they’ll again be an underdog in that game.
The Chiefs just aren’t very good this season.
5. Detroit Lions +900
This is a tremendous story, and there’s still a chance they will host the NFC title game.
The Detroit offense can beat you every way, but the defense has struggled all season. It's tough to believe they can stop the 49ers or win the Super Bowl — especially against a Ravens team that destroyed them 38-6.
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4. Green Bay Packers +2500
If you believe in the hot hand theory, Green Bay is the squad for you. Could Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur recreate what Matt Stafford and Sean McVay did a few years ago?
The defense is just so bad. Why are they this high? They are playing well, split with the Lions this year and lost an ugly one to Tampa last month.
3. Buffalo Bills +500
I can’t make a case for them being any higher than this because they have the hardest path of the top three teams left.
They do get the Chiefs at home, but it’s still Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid, a team that they can't seem to overcome. Then, likely a trip to Baltimore, which hasn’t lost with its starters since November 12th.
2. Baltimore Ravens +290
The primary reason they’re not No. 1 is because of Lamar Jackson’s spotty playoff history. Also, over the last three years, the Ravens are just 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 7+ points.
Baltimore should handle Houston, and then it'll be a massive test against Buffalo or Kansas City. Then there will come a looming rematch against the 49ers.
It’s a difficult road, but they are the clear-cut favorite in the AFC.
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1. San Francisco 49ers +175
They are only here ahead of the Ravens because San Francisco is not only a considerable favorite this weekend, but they will also be around a touchdown favorite at home against the Lions.
They’ll be in the Super Bowl, barring a massive meltdown or catastrophic injuries. And if they get to the Big Game, I like their chances in a rematch against the Ravens.
Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.