2024 NFL odds: Best Divisional Round bets, including 49ers team total, Chiefs props

Boy, was NFL wild-card weekend … wild. 

Bettors backing the Cowboys and the Eagles — squads that were both favorites last week — were unpleasantly surprised as both NFC East teams suffered embarrassing losses. 

Ouch.

We now move on to the Divisional Round. 

One of these games that I'm wagering on is extra special to me (more on that in just a second). 

The other game that I'm including in my picks — well, let's just say the jury is still out, so I'm going with player props instead.

Let's dive into my best bets for this weekend's games.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

The Green Bay Packers upset the Dallas Cowboys as 7-point road favorites and now get the pleasure of going to San Francisco to face the top-seeded 49ers. This will be a battle between historically relevant NFC franchises, and this matchup brings back childhood nostalgia for me of watching the Niners in the 90s.

I’m excited about this one.

The Packers have been outstanding since Week 10. That's when their offense finally found its footing. In case you didn't know, let me be the first to inform you that the Packers have the youngest offense in the NFL. And that young offense has improved throughout the season dramatically.

Since Week 10, the Packers offense ranks third in DVOA and fourth in expected points added with Jordan Love under center. Green Bay is legitimately good when it comes to offense. 

However, the opposite is true of its defense. That unit has been awful. 

The Packers defense ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and 25th in EPA per play. Remember, Green Bay allowed 30 points to the Panthers in Week 16. Those 30 points were given up to a Panthers offense that didn’t score for the remaining eight quarters of the season.

So with that, I’m taking the 49ers team total over 30.5. 

The 49ers offense is well-rested and healthy after sitting out this past week, as S.F. enjoyed its first-round bye. I understand the risk in wagering on an offense that, at kickoff, will not have played a meaningful snap since before the new calendar year. However, I think the 49ers have a style of offense that doesn’t start slow. 

They control the line of scrimmage with their rushing attack and design open receiving options early in games. This 49ers offense ended the season as the best squad in the NFL, and it just matches up well against the Packers defense. 

PICK: 49ers team total Over 30.5 points

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

I lean toward the Chiefs to cover because the pressure of this game is squarely on the Bills. 

The Bills are the favorites. They're the higher seed and the game is in Buffalo, where Josh Allen is far better than on the road in the postseason. 

This is the first road playoff game for Patrick Mahomes, which is an amazing feat. He’s played in 15 playoff games. Twelve of those have been at home and three have been neutral-site Super Bowl games.

However, I’m going to play two props in this game because I’m not comfortable picking a game winner right now. 

Prop No. 1: Isiah Pacheco 62.5 rushing yards

My first prop wager is on the Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco having over 62.5 rushing yards. As mentioned above, this is the first time this Chiefs squad has played a road playoff game since 2015. The atmosphere in Buffalo will be loud, and one way to silence a crowd is by running the football, because running the football is "easier" than passing in the noise, and it establishes a physical mindset. 

The Chiefs rushed for 245 yards the last time they were in Buffalo. The Bills are also 21st in rushing defensive EPA and are without a majority of starters at linebacker and safety. 

This is a beat-up defense. 

Chiefs will look to win at the line of scrimmage Sunday night.

PICK: Isiah Pacheco Over 62.5 rushing yards 

Prop No. 2: Travis Kelce 5.5 receptions

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is behind only Jerry Rice in playoff receptions, yards and touchdowns. He has always shined in big games and even last weekend — with three uncharacteristic drops — he caught seven passes for 71 yards. 

Kelce is not dropping three passes in Buffalo, especially considering the weather will be much better this weekend than it was when Kansas City hosted the Dolphins last week. 

The Bills will also be missing the defenders needed to guard Kelce in this game. Buffalo was missing four starters at linebacker and in the secondary against Pittsburgh, and then lost three more players in those two spots by the end of Monday night.  

I like Kelce over 5.5 receptions. 

PICK: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz