2024 NFL mock draft: Michael Penix Jr. rises, Brock Bowers cracks top 10

Draft day is officially here! 

But before the festivities get underway, FOX Sports' NFL experts gathered for a look at how Thursday's first round of the 2024 NFL Draft might play out.

How many quarterbacks will come off the board in the first 10 picks? Which teams are trading up? Who might sneak into the first round?

Without further ado, here is one final mock draft.

2024 NFL Draft prospect rankings | Top 10 QB prospects | Top 10 RB prospects | Top 10 WR prospects | Top 10 TE prospects | Top 10 OT prospects | Top 10 IOL prospects | Joel Klatt's mock draft

1. Chicago Bears: USC QB Caleb Williams

Just once, I want the general manager picking first overall to actually say, "Yeah, we’re taking the guy you think we’re taking," and be done with it. Ryan Poles did as much with a sly smile at Tuesday’s press conference. The Bears are taking Williams. –Carmen Vitali

2. Washington Commanders: LSU QB Jayden Daniels

It's almost impossible to find anyone in the NFL who doesn't think Daniels is the second-best QB in the draft, and he's a perfect fit for Washington (despite his agent's curiously ill-timed emoji). Daniels is an explosive playmaker with a dangerous arm and legs. The one worry about him is his slight frame (6-foot-4, 210). But that was the knock on Lamar Jackson once, too. –Ralph Vacchiano

3. New England Patriots: UNC QB Drake Maye

Drake Maye is the clear-cut QB3 in this draft class. He might have as much upside as any quarterback in this year's draft. He just also carries as much risk, with issues in his throwing motion, footwork and decision-making. It feels like he'll need a strong supporting cast, particularly on the coaching staff, to get him ready for NFL play. The Patriots are trying to trade down, and I don't blame them for seeing what's out there. But Maye is a worthwhile project. I just hope New England finds a way to get him a receiver or three — and then maybe a tackle or two. The Patriots have a long rebuild ahead. –Henry McKenna 

4. Arizona Cardinals: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 

The Cardinals select the most polished receiver in the draft, adding a much-needed playmaker for quarterback Kyler Murray. At 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, Harrison is a plug-and-play receiver who can consistently win on the perimeter, make plays after the catch and provide a home-run threat to stretch the field vertically in offensive coordinator Drew Petzing's variation of the West Coast offense. Harrison, son of the Hall of Fame Colts receiver, is a no-brainer for the Cardinals if they stick and pick at No. 4. –Eric D. Williams

5. Los Angeles Chargers: Notre Dame OT Joe Alt 

Jim Harbaugh had a successful offense with the 49ers with an elite offensive line. At Michigan, he had the two-time Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. His No. 1 asset in Los Angeles is quarterback Justin Herbert, and grabbing Joe Alt to protect him here is a no-brainer. Also, the drop-off from Alt to whomever the Chargers might draft in the second round at offensive tackle is larger than the drop-off from Malik Nabers to whomever they'd draft in the second round at receiver. –Geoff Schwartz 

6. New York Giants: LSU WR Malik Nabers 

The Giants are serious about the QBs, and if they have the opportunity to trade up for Drake Maye, they will try. But the cost is high and some in the organization don't want to pay the price when they can stay put and build around Daniel Jones. They might think about J.J. McCarthy here, but in the end they'll take the receiver some think is the most explosive in this draft. Nabers will instantly be the No. 1 receiver Jones has never had and will draw some comparisons to another explosive LSU receiver the Giants had a few years ago. –Vacchiano

7. Tennessee Titans: Washington WR Rome Odunze

If Alt is gone and trading back isn't a possibility, the Titans should be happy with Odunze. Sure, Penn State's Olu Fashanu or Alabama's JC Latham could be in play, but at No. 7, I think you take Odunze's upside as a potential WR1 of the future over either offensive-tackle prospect. In Tennessee, the former Washington star would have the unique opportunity to learn and play alongside two top receivers in DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley as he comes into his own as a target for quarterback Will Levis. –Ben Arthur

8. *TRADE* Denver Broncos [via Atlanta]: Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

Denver sends No. 12, No. 76 and No. 136 to Atlanta for No. 8.

Atlanta could have its pick of any defensive player in the draft, but the Falcons can still get a strong edge rusher moving down four spots. They add a third-round pick from Denver as well as a fifth. The deal is pretty even on the old trade-value chart. The move allows the Broncos to pounce on one of the second-tier QBs as they search for Russell Wilson's replacement. –Greg Auman

9. Chicago Bears: Penn State OT Olu Fashanu

Who are the Bears to say no to the second-best tackle in the draft? I have my suspicions that Poles isn’t ready to give up on Braxton Jones, the Bears’ current left tackle they got in the fifth round out of Southern Utah, but they’re making a huge investment in a rookie quarterback, so might as well swing for the fences on a left tackle and let Jones be one of the best swing tackles out there. –Vitali

10. New York Jets: Georgia TE Brock Bowers 

If Odunze or Fashanu were still on the board, this might have been a tougher decision. But it's fairly easy with them gone. Bowers was an essential ingredient in Georgia's offense — perhaps at a level people aren't fully appreciating. I know that Aaron Rodgers doesn't maximize tight end production. And still, Bowers is by far the best option on the board, and he plays a position that's of need for New York. Let's get him on the field for the Jets and see how well he works between receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. –McKenna

11. Minnesota Vikings: Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

This is the worst-case scenario for the Vikings and not at all what I think will happen come draft night, but a trade didn't work out in our mock. Realistically, Minnesota is the only quarterback-needy team that owns two first-round picks, and I don’t think they’ll sit pat with both of them. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah armed himself with the No. 23 pick to be aggressive. However, if the Vikings don’t get their first-choice, perhaps Penix Jr. is the better second choice. He’s a pro-ready talent provided he can hold up health-wise and I do think the NFL is higher on Penix Jr. than most of the public. –Vitali

12. Atlanta Falcons [via Denver]: Alabama OLB Dallas Turner

Atlanta still gets the first defensive player off the board at 12, which seems less likely in the real draft. The Falcons sorely needed to address their pass rush, and Turner should help them end the NFL's longest drought without a 10-sack season. Getting a third and fifth-rounder will help with depth or in moving up in the second round for a corner. –Auman

13. Las Vegas Raiders: Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell

Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix are all drafted before the Raiders select at 13. They choose the best player on the board at a huge position of need and hope to grab Bo Nix or another QB later in the draft. –Schwartz 

14. New Orleans Saints: Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga

Tackle is an obvious priority for the Saints, between Trevor Penning's struggles and Ryan Ramczyk's knee issues. Getting the third tackle off the board isn't bad, and Fuaga should step in as a Week 1 starter. –Auman

15. Indianapolis Colts: Alabama CB Terrion Arnold 

Colts general manager Chris Ballard has a strong track record of drafting for need at the top of the draft, and I don't expect that to change this year. Cornerback was a glaring weakness for Indianapolis in 2023, and the wide receiver crop in the AFC South has only gotten stronger with the additions of Stefon Diggs (Texans) and Gabe Davis (Jaguars) this offseason. Arguably the best corner in this year's class, Arnold led the SEC in interceptions and pass breakups last season. –Arthur

16. Seattle Seahawks: Texas DT Byron Murphy II

New Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald gets a playmaker to help install his defensive scheme with the Seahawks. The 6-foot, 300-pound Murphy can push the pocket as an interior pass-rusher for a defense that finished with just 16 sacks on third down last season, tied for 22nd in the league. And he should also help improve a run defense that allowed 138.4 rushing yards per contest in 2023, No. 31 in the NFL. Macdonald was brought to Seattle to improve the defense, and the addition of Murphy should help with that task. –Williams

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. 

Calvin Ridley's departure in free agency left a gaping hole at wide receiver that Gabe Davis' signing doesn't completely fill. The FBS leader in touchdowns last season, Thomas is the kind of target that could help Trevor Lawrence get back on track in 2023. –Arthur

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Alabama OT JC Latham

The Bengals are probably eyeing defensive tackles and cornerbacks, but with those positions getting picked just ahead of them, this choice becomes easy. It's surprising to see Latham still sitting here, and the Bengals shouldn't hesitate if he is. He's widely regarded as an immediate starter at right tackle. And even if Latham can't unseat Trent Brown for that job, he has the versatility to kick inside and play guard. –Dave Helman

19. Los Angeles Rams: Florida State OLB Jared Verse

With future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired, the Rams find some pass-rush help. Verse flashed speed and explosiveness at the combine, posting a 4.54-second 40-yard time and a 35-inch vertical. He led Florida State with 9.5 sacks last season and should give new Rams defensive coordinator Mike Shula another player to create pressure off the edge. –Williams

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Washington LT Troy Fautanu

The Steelers could always bump Broderick Jones over to left tackle, but regardless of whether that happens, they need another one. Fautanu was a left tackle in college, but he has the athleticism to play on the right side if need be. And if the Steelers prefer to play him inside, he can start at guard as well. However they want to use him, Fautanu would go a long way toward fortifying Pittsburgh's offensive line. –Helman

21. Miami Dolphins: UCLA Edge Laiatu Latu

Latu might just be the most talented edge player in this year's draft class, but his neck injury — which held him out of two college seasons and preceded his transfer to UCLA — seems to be influencing his draft stock. I don't have access to his medicals and don't know what risks the Dolphins are willing to take with injuries, particularly at a position where Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are overcoming season-ending injuries of their own. But Latu is healthy right now. He should be Miami's starter in Week 1 to help hold over the position until Chubb and Phillips return. Latu is a three-down defensive lineman with tremendous upside. –McKenna

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Iowa S/CB Cooper DeJean

The Eagles might try to trade up for Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell or Alabama CB Terrion Arnold, especially if they sense a run on corners beginning. But if they stay here and can land DeJean, it would be a coup. He might be the most versatile DB in the draft. He could be a safety in the NFL, but he’s got the cover and playmaking skills to be a corner. The Eagles could use both, but they would envision him as an eventual replacement for Darius Slay or James Bradberry. –Vacchiano

23. Minnesota Vikings: Illinois DT Jer'Zhan Newton

Well, since the Vikings are actually picking twice in the first round, they go after perhaps their biggest need outside of quarterback: defensive tackle. I really like Newton as a guy who can rush the passer from the interior. He could help make life easier for Jonathan Greenard on the outside in Minnesota. –Vitali

24. Dallas Cowboys: Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton

The Cowboys have huge holes at left tackle and center that they didn’t fill in free agency, but finding a top tackle is a bit more difficult. The 6-foot-8, 322-pound Guyton has a huge upside and could immediately step in as the replacement for the departed Tyron Smith at left tackle, which would allow Dallas to keep Tyler Smith at left guard. Yeah, the Cowboys need that center too, but protecting Dak Prescott’s blind side is a much bigger priority. –Vacchiano

25. Green Bay Packers: Duke OL Graham Barton

This makes way too much sense given how much Green Bay loves its versatile linemen. Barton gives the Packers another piece to the offensive line puzzle, mostly on the interior so that Green Bay can field the best possible five in front of quarterback Jordan Love. I’d actually be surprised if Barton is even still here come draft night. –Vitali

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson

With the top three edges off the board, interior offensive line makes sense as the Bucs' best place to upgrade. JPJ models himself after former Bucs center Ryan Jensen, and Tampa Bay gets him to bring back a physicality to their middle up front. You could see them slide back a few picks in this scenario, too. –Auman

[READ MORE: Meet the most interesting player in the 2024 NFL Draft]

27. Arizona Cardinals: Penn State DE Chop Robinson

The Cardinals finished with 30 sacks in 2023 — third worst in the NFL — so Robinson should add juice to the team's pass rush. Just 21 years old, Robinson needs work to develop into a polished pass-rusher, but the 6-foot-3, 254-pounder is a physical freak (4.48 40-yard time) who will bring speed off the edge for Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon. –Williams

28. Buffalo Bills: Texas WR Adonai Mitchell

I had an offer to move back to No. 43 and pick up No. 79 in the process, but I worried that might leave me out of the mix for the perimeter receivers in this tier. For example: Ja'Lynn Polk or Troy Franklin might be my best options at 43. Instead, I'm taking Mitchell. And there's no doubt it's a risk. He rarely saw targets in his two years at Georgia, so he transferred to Texas, where he managed 55 catches for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns. It's not the production profile you want out of your first-rounder. But if you watch the film, you see a receiver with sticky hands and outstanding speed. He played at his best against Alabama's elite cornerbacks. There's just a lot to love about the guy. Let's slot him into the offense with Josh Allen and see what Mitchell can do. I'm betting it's big things. –McKenna

29. Detroit Lions: Clemson CB Nate Wiggins

The Lions are going to try and put their secondary issues to bed yet again and though they just traded for cornerback Carlton Davis, they can have lockdown corners on each side with Wiggins. He’s excellent when it comes to his ability to change direction and mirror receivers. Not to mention, Wiggins knows what to do with the ball in his hands. He returned two of his three interceptions at Clemson for touchdowns. –Vitali

30. Baltimore Ravens: Georgia OT Amarius Mims

Classic Baltimore — hang around and pick an insanely talented prospect without having to do anything to get him. If Mims were to fall this far, it'd be because injuries limited him to just eight college starts. Respectfully, who cares? If a guy is 6-foot-8, 340 pounds and moves like a gazelle at just 21 years of age, you draft him. If Mims meets his projection, he'll be starting at left or right tackle in Baltimore for the rest of Lamar Jackson's career. –Helman

31. San Francisco 49ers: Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

The 49ers could use a starting cornerback opposite Pro Bowler Charvarius Ward, so McKinstry makes sense here. San Francisco played mostly zone defense last season, which suits the Alabama product's skill set as a fluid mover with good transitioning skills and an ability to play the football. McKinstry also is a capable punt returner. –Williams

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Texas WR Xavier Worthy

The Chiefs have so many options if the first 31 picks go this direction. I could see Arizona’s Jordan Morgan here to play left tackle and eventually move inside when either Joe Thuney or Trey Smith is off the roster. I’d prefer the Chiefs go bigger at receiver with someone like Troy Franklin from Oregon, but I do not believe they’d pass on the speed of Worthy. The offense doesn’t miss Tyreek Hill, but it misses a player who scares defenses with his speed. That would be Worthy. –Schwartz

The following writers contributed to this story:

AFC South reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFC South reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
AFC East reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFL and betting analyst Geoff Schwartz (@GeoffSchwartz)
NFC West reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFC East reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)
Dallas Cowboys reporter David Helman (@davidhelman_)