2024 NFL divisional odds, predictions: Picks, lines, spreads for every game
NFL Wild-Card weekend for the 2023 season is in the books.
Now we look ahead to an exciting slate of divisional round matchups.
One game that bettors should circle is the contest between No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers and No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers at 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX and the FOX Sports App.
Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for the divisional round from a betting perspective — the point spread, moneyline and the total (Over/Under).
SATURDAY
Texans @ Ravens (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC)
Point spread: Ravens -9 (Ravens favored to win by more than 9 points; otherwise, Texans cover)
Moneyline: Ravens -426 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.35 total); Texans +329 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $42.90 total)
Total: 43.5 points scored by both teams combined
Jason McIntyre:
This line was 10, then Houston money drove it to nine before a syndicate’s release pushed this back up to 9.5. I’ll have the Ravens in a teaser below the key numbers of seven and three.
But I also think the rested Ravens could come out here and drop the hammer early on Houston, so I’ll go with Baltimore first half -6.
In all their biggest games this season, the Ravens have come out and gone to work early with dynamic game plans. And now, they’re as healthy as any team in the playoffs, with the looming return of tight end Mark Andrews back. The only exception is Marlon Humphrey, which is concerning since he played in Week 17 but didn’t need to.
The Texans, conversely, are very banged up, especially on the defensive line, which isn’t ideal against a team that averaged 4.9 YPC (third) and a league-high 156 yards per game.
I’m passing on the full game because of backdoor cover potential, and yes, this helps me against the trend everyone is citing — Lamar Jackson in the last three years as a 7-point favorite or higher is 1-8 against the spread (ATS).
PICK: Ravens (-6) first half; to lead at halftime by more than 6 points
Packers @ 49ers (8:15 p.m. ET, FOX and FOX Sports App)
Point spread: 49ers -9.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 9.5 points; otherwise, Packers cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -459 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.18 total); Packers +352 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $45.20 total)
Total: 50.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz:
The Packers defense ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and 25th in EPA per play. Remember, Green Bay allowed 30 points to the Panthers in Week 16. Those 30 points were given up to a Panthers' offense that didn’t score for the remaining eight quarters of the season.
So with that, I’m taking the 49ers team total over 30.5.
The 49ers offense is well-rested and healthy after sitting out this past week, as S.F. enjoyed its first-round bye. I understand the risk of wagering on an offense that, at kickoff, will not have played a meaningful snap since before the new calendar year. However, I think the 49ers have a style of offense that doesn’t start slow.
They control the line of scrimmage with their rushing attack and design open receiving options early in games. This 49ers offense ended the season as the best squad in the NFL, and it just matches up well against the Packers defense.
PICK: 49ers team total OVER 30.5 points
SUNDAY
Buccaneers @ Lions (3 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)
Point spread: Lions -6.5 (Lions favored to win by more than 6.5 points; otherwise, Buccaneers cover)
Moneyline: Lions -278 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.60 total); Buccaneers +225 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $32.50 total)
Total: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined
McIntyre:
The side here is very difficult because I’m not sure how this young Detroit team will handle the success of the first franchise playoff win since the Ice Age. Ben Johnson is getting inundated with job interview requests. And let’s be real - the Rams rolled offensively (7.7 YPP) before struggling in the red zone (0-3).
At the same time, the Bucs caught Philadelphia at the perfect time. No A.J. Brown meant Todd Bowles could blitz a ton and leave his corners on islands. There was not much to worry about.
But Jared Goff has been excellent when blitzed (64% completions, 13 TDs) this season. You have to get pressure with four to beat Goff, and I’m not sure Tampa can.
These are the two best teams ATS this season (12-6). Baker Mayfield will not stop chucking, and the Lions secondary has struggled.
I think the Over is probably the best bet, and I’d lean to the Lions at -6.5.
PICK: OVER 48 points scored by both teams combined
Chiefs @ Bills (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Point spread: Bills 2.5 (Bills favored to win by more than 2.5 points; otherwise, Chiefs cover)
Moneyline: Bills -147 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.80 total); Chiefs +122 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $22.20 total)
Total: 45.5 points scored by both teams combined
Schwartz:
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is behind only Jerry Rice in playoff receptions, yards and touchdowns. He has always shined in big games and even last weekend — with three uncharacteristic drops — he caught seven passes for 71 yards.
Kelce is not dropping three passes in Buffalo, especially considering the weather will be much better this weekend than it was when Kansas City hosted the Dolphins last week.
The Bills will also be missing the defenders needed to guard Kelce in this game. Buffalo was missing four starters at linebacker and in the secondary against Pittsburgh, and then lost three more players in those two spots by the end of Monday night.
I like Kelce over 5.5 receptions.
PICK: Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 receptions
Keep checking FOX Sports for updates on the NFL's divisional round.